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Why I Flew on a Tiny Helicopter Next to…
April 28, 2026
The Next Elon Musk
Featured: Alphabet Reports Tomorrow. One Number Tells the Whole Story.
Dear Reader,
Elon Musk’s early investors saw 1,210,000% gains with Tesla over 2 decades.
But we believe history is about to repeat itself…
There’s a new visionary founder who’s being hailed as “The Next Elon Musk.”
His company is already working with every major branch of the military…
Backed by $26 billion in contracts…
And supported by Peter Thiel’s $1B vote of confidence.
Right now, you have a rare chance to get in through a little-known 4-letter ticker symbol – before it goes public.
You won’t find this opportunity on Robinhood or the evening news.
Click here to get the pre-IPO ticker symbol – before this video disappears.
Regards,
Addison Wiggin
Founder, Grey Swan Investment Fraternity
FEATURED ARTICLE
Alphabet Reports Tomorrow. One Number Tells the Whole Story.
Let’s be direct about what’s happening here. GOOGL has gained more than 26% in a single month. It’s sitting at all-time highs going into tomorrow’s Q1 2026 earnings release. Options markets are implying a 5.63% move in either direction — compared to a four-quarter average swing of just 1.44%. That gap alone tells you how much uncertainty is baked in right now.
This isn’t a normal earnings setup. It’s a verdict.
Wall Street is expecting $106.89 billion in revenue — roughly 19% year-over-year growth — and $2.63 in adjusted EPS. That EPS figure is actually about 6.4% below the year-ago quarter. Not because the business is deteriorating. Because depreciation from the AI infrastructure buildout is accelerating fast, and CFO Anat Ashkenazi has already put the market on notice that it will “meaningfully increase” through the full year.
Alphabet guided for $175–$185 billion in total 2026 capex. To put that in context: they spent $32.3 billion in FY 2023. That’s a more than 5x increase in three years. The argument for it — from Sundar Pichai and the rest of management — is that more than half of Alphabet’s ML compute spend flows directly into Cloud, making this a revenue-generating infrastructure cycle, not a vanity project. Google’s first-party models are handling over 16 billion tokens per minute. The Cloud backlog hit $240 billion in Q4, growing 55% sequentially.
Those are real numbers. The question is whether the margin structure holds up long enough for the returns to arrive.
The Capex ROI Problem
Google Cloud posted $17.7 billion in revenue in Q4 2025 — up 48% year-over-year. Operating income in the segment more than doubled to $5.3 billion. Cloud gross margins had been expanding from roughly 20% toward 27%. If that expansion continues in tomorrow’s report, it’s the strongest available signal that the infrastructure spend is translating into real unit economics.
If margins stall — or worse, compress — even alongside strong topline Cloud growth, the story gets harder to hold at current prices. Alphabet trades at roughly 32x earnings. EPS is declining year-over-year. The market has been extending patience. That patience is not unconditional.
Slight tangent, but it matters: Alphabet’s investment in Anthropic — reportedly up to $40 billion committed — is starting to look like one of the more quietly valuable positions in the portfolio. There’s been market chatter about a potential Anthropic IPO at a valuation well above what Google paid. That optionality doesn’t appear cleanly in any DCF model. The market hasn’t priced it in. At some point, it will.
What the Analyst Community Is Saying
TD Cowen is at $375. BofA’s Justin Post reiterated Buy with a $370 target, calling Gemini-driven search monetization an underappreciated catalyst. Evercore ISI’s Mark Mahaney has an Outperform with a $400 target. The Street’s consolidated read: Strong Buy — 26 Buys, five Holds, mean target of $387.68.
That’s a crowded camp. When 26 out of 31 analysts are already on the Buy side, the upgrade cycle has limited room left to run. The asymmetry cuts both ways — and a disappointment from this starting point can move fast.☰
What to Watch Tomorrow
- Google Cloud revenue growth rate — below 40% YoY reopens the ROI question immediately
- Cloud operating margin — this is the actual tell; expansion means the spend is working, compression means it isn’t yet
- EPS vs. $2.63 consensus — depreciation is the hidden drag; a miss carries more weight than usual at this valuation
- Google advertising revenue — consensus sits at $76.91B (+15% YoY); YouTube at $10.03B (+12.4% YoY)
- Management tone on capex returns — reiteration of guidance isn’t enough; the market wants confidence on timing
- Any Anthropic or AI investment commentary — IPO signals or updated valuation language would shift the conversation
Alphabet is not a troubled business. It’s one of the most profitable enterprises ever built. But it’s carrying a premium valuation into a report that has to defend an infrastructure bet most companies wouldn’t have the balance sheet to even attempt. The AI capex cycle is either the foundational investment of the next decade — or it’s front-running returns that won’t show up on schedule.
Tomorrow’s report won’t settle that. But watch what Cloud margins do. Everything else is commentary.
This content is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Investing involves risk.
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