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🦉 The Night Owl Newsletter for August 25th

Unsubscribe Wall Street’s quietly buying these 3 AI infrastructure plays (From StockEarnings)

Pathward’s Credit Scare Tests Its Comeback Story

Written by Peter Frank

Pathward Financial (NASDAQ: CASH)has had its share of serious bumps over the past 14 months, including accounting restatements, a Nasdaq listing scare, and concerns about the credit quality of loans. Its fiscal third-quarter earnings report did little to settle things down.

But still, analysts rate the company a Buy and project a strong 12-month upside.

Management is confident of a strong 2027, and aggressive buybacks help strengthen the case. The stock is up nearly 17% year to date.

For investors, it’s the numbers behind the reported results, and the potential for smoother roads ahead that make this company an interesting play.

A Behind-the-Scenes Player in Fintech

Sioux Falls, South Dakota is an unlikely address for one of the more interesting stories in American fintech, but that is where Pathward has built its business.

Once known as Meta Financial Group, Pathward became a key piece of plumbing behind tax-refund advances, prepaid debit cards, and “banking-as-a-service” partnerships that let fintechs such as Upstart (NASDAQ: UPST), Stripe, Trustly, and Greenlight offer bank products without becoming a bank. This niche bank, behind the scenes and based in Sioux Falls, South Dakota, has carved a specialty in ways the public rarely sees.

Earnings Fall Short of Expectations

Its latest financials show a well-run operation confronting some turbulent waters. For its fiscal third quarter ended June 30, Pathward reported net income of $29 million, or $1.37 per diluted share, down sharply from $42.1 million, or $1.81 per share, a year earlier.

Wall Street expected $1.95 per share, so the miss of 58 cents stung. Revenue of $189.6 million also missed the $191.2 million consensus.

Behind the shortfall was a drop in net interest income for the period, not solely from operations, but still disappointing.

The company reported that net interest income fell 8% to $112.9 million, largely from an $11.6 million drop after selling a consumer-finance portfolio last October. That sale also hit the company’s net interest margin, as it slipped to 6.59% from 7.43% a year earlier.

Commercial Finance Provides Some Support

Offsetting some of that, however, interest income from commercial finance loans and leases rose $6.1 million year-over-year.

Adding to the difficulty, the provision for credit losses jumped to $28.3 million from just $9.3 million a year ago, and nonperforming loans ballooned to roughly $275 from $117.7 million three months earlier.

Management pointed to commercial loans for much of the increase, including a renewable-energy construction project tied to one developer, and a working-capital loan that CEO Brett Pharr called likely “a sophisticated fraud” on the earnings call.

Credit Problems Raise Concerns

Not everything was negative. Noninterest income rose 4% to $76.7 million, noninterest expenses fell 7% to $129.1 million, and the company kept buying back stock, repurchasing about 304,000 shares for about $28 million.

And the company has proven that its business can work. For example, full fiscal 2025 looked considerably healthier, pointing to a history that proves what is possible. Net income for that year came in at $185.9 million with diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $7.87, up 9%. Pathward’s return on average tangible equity was an impressive 38.75%.

Management’s guidance also reflected the current reality versus potential. Although fiscal 2026 EPS guidance was cut to between $7.80 and $8.20, the company simultaneously issued initial fiscal 2027 guidance of $9.50 to $10, implying that current credit issues are a speed bump, not a trend.

Analysts Remain Bullish

Despite the hiccups, the few analysts covering the stock like what they see.

The consensus rating is Buy, built from three Buy ratings and no Holds or Sells, with an average price target of $101, implying an upside of roughly 20%. The highest 12-month price target is $105 per share, while the lowest is $97.

Although still listed as a Buy, two recent target moves did go in the wrong direction. Keefe, Bruyette & Woods trimmed its target to $97 from $108 while keeping Outperform, and Piper Sandler cut its target to $105 from $107 while keeping Overweight, both the day after earnings. Yet, a number of firms jumped in on the stock.

An annual dividend of 20 cents, yielding about 0.24%, does little to change the story away from the results.

Past Accounting Problems Add to Risk

Indeed, the financial results carry a bit of extra weight these days. Pathward spent much of 2025 restating three years of financials after its audit committee found errors in how it accounted for third-party lending and derivative relationships. A delay to quarterly filings also prompted Nasdaq to warn the company about potential non-compliance.

That history is likely why the July 2026 credit surprise triggered such a fast reaction. Within weeks, shareholder-rights firms announced investigations into whether officers misled investors about loan quality.

Pathward is also not alone in chasing the fintech opportunity. The Bancorp (NASDAQ: TBBK) and Green Dot (NASDAQ: GDOT) each compete for similar banking-as-a-service relationships, though neither carry the rating that Pathward enjoys.

The Comeback Case Remains Intact

For investors, the risks here are clear. Pathward is battling a slide in credit quality at the same time it looks to recover from a slide in its trust. But management is confident, and if numbers can stabilize, the business environment could prove smooth.

A combination of aggressive buybacks, a rebuilt compliance program, and a more stabilized underwriting could prove, in the end, that analysts are right in their views. READ THIS STORY ONLINE

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Wiring the AI Boom: Rumble’s $13.7B Pivot

Written by Jeffrey Neal Johnson

When a company secures a contract nearly three times its total valuation, the market pays attention. Rumble Inc. (NASDAQ: RUM) recently locked in a $13.7 billion GPU infrastructure agreement, shattering its valuation model overnight. What started as a specialized video-sharing alternative has rapidly pivoted into a tier-one AI compute provider.

The fundamental gap between Wall Street’s perception of Rumble and its new reality as an enterprise-grade infrastructure player offers a rare asymmetry. Legacy models still price the equity as an unprofitable media platform. Yet, the newly minted multi-billion-dollar compute backlog signals top-line acceleration is coming.

Trapped short sellers now face a transformed business model, setting the stage for institutions to adjust their positions in Rumble’s stock. The current market dynamics represent a pricing dislocation, one that investors could choose to capitalize on as the narrative shifts from advertising revenue to hyperscale cloud computing.

Rewiring Financials for the New Cloud Era

The scale of this operational transition becomes clear when evaluating the balance sheet alongside forward guidance. Rumble currently has a market capitalization of around $5 billion. That multiple once looked stretched for a standard video hosting platform, especially against trailing 12-month revenues of approximately $117 million. The recent partnership anchoring an extensive Georgia infrastructure expansion flips the script entirely. This single deal represents roughly 100 times the current annual revenue, cementing a paradigm shift.

Management is already broadcasting the immediate financial impact of this pivot. During the latest earnings call, forward revenue guidance for the third quarter of 2026 was aggressively revised upward to a range of $87 million to $93 million. To put that in perspective, this new target easily eclipses the prior consensus estimate of about $88.7 million and effectively doubles the second quarter’s actual revenue of approximately $40.37 million.

Investors are watching the real-time top-line realization of an AI pivot. Rumble’s cloud segment is no longer a peripheral venture; it is quickly becoming the central economic engine of the operation. Institutional investorsoften hunt for precisely this type of inflection point, where growth accelerates so violently that legacy valuation frameworks completely break down. The transition requires the market to re-evaluate Rumble not as a content distributor, but as an essential supplier of processing power.

Front-Running the $13.7B Server Shockwave

As the underlying business transforms, market positioning reveals a fascinating structural tug-of-war. The legacy Wall Street consensus remains stubbornly anchored in the past. The stock carries a universal Sell rating from analysts who last updated their models weeks before the GPU catalyst materialized. Because Sell-side upgrades frequently lag major fundamental shifts, these outdated models create a pricing blind spot for the retail market.

This delay leaves a large portion of the market caught off guard, particularly on the short side. Short interest levels remain distinctly bearish, established when the market viewed Rumble solely as a cash-burning media entity.

Rumble’s high short float trapped by a sudden, multi-billion-dollar infrastructure pivot provides the exact fuel needed for a sustained, volume-driven rally. Short sellers could be forced to cover their positions just as long-term buyers step in to capture the upside in new computing.

Behind the scenes, the smart money is already maneuvering. Options market data revealed heavy accumulation of call options just days before the definitive contract announcement, signaling that institutional players were positioning ahead of the news.

Looking at the capitalization table, insider ownership metrics reveal deep-pocketed technology allocations. The presence of strategic holders like David O. Sacks and entities such as Tether Global Investments indicates strong conviction in this enterprise infrastructure pivot.

Retail watchlists show a strong cross-asset correlation between Rumble and semiconductor sector giants like NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA) and Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ: AMD), suggesting the broader market is quietly beginning to re-rate this equity as a pure-play AI asset.

Capital Expenditure Meets Long-Term Leverage

While the top-line trajectory is undeniable, building data centers requires substantial upfront spending. Investors should expect short- to medium-term margin compression as Rumble physically builds out the Georgia facilities required to service this large-scale contract.

With legacy net margins deep in negative territory and trailing earnings per share hovering near a 59-cent loss, Rumble will likely burn cash to scale its physical infrastructure. Free cash flow expansion will inherently lag revenue realization, a standard lifecycle phase for any capital-intensive infrastructure build. Building the physical backbone of the internet requires patience.

The path to profitability is accelerating at a surprising rate. Forward projections indicate earnings will improve substantially, from an expected loss of 69 cents per share to approximately a 15-cent-per-share loss over the next year. This sharp upward trajectory signals that the scale efficiencies gained through the new cloud service agreements will outpace infrastructure spend faster than current sell-side models project. As the $13.7 billion backlog absorbs fixed costs, true operational leverage will kick in.

Plugging Into the High-Speed Computing Shift

By locking in a long-term compute contract, Rumble offers a unique, asymmetric upside relative to the hyperscaler market, which is heavily saturated. The sheer size of this GPU deal guarantees long-term revenue visibility, effectively de-risking the top line for years to come. Rumble has positioned itself as a bridge for enterprises that need raw computing power outside the traditional tech monopolies.

Investors might consider utilizing pullbacks to accumulate a position before the broader analyst community is forced to drastically revise their valuation models upward. The transition from a consumer-facing media application to a foundational pillar of the AI physical economy is rarely priced in seamlessly, making the current volatility a compelling window to align with an undeniable structural shift. Investors who recognize this computing evolution early may find themselves well-positioned as Rumble completely rewrites its financial narrative. READ THIS STORY ONLINE

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StoneX: Too Far Too Fast?

Written by Peter Frank

StoneX Group (NASDAQ: SNEX)should be accustomed to wild swings in the market. This New York-based financial services firm deals in everything from commodities and currencies to securities and digital assets.

This year, it’s taken a wild swing of its own. It has scored remarkable revenue growth and an extraordinary earnings increase, all while its stock was suddenly punished after reaching record highs. And now analysts rate it a Buy with more than 60% upside over the next 12 months.

A Major Force in Global Markets

StoneX is hardly a household name like a bank or a brokerage app. But this firm has quietly become one of the most important internal plumbing networks in global markets, connecting farmers, exporters, hedge funds, and everyday traders.

With a presence in more than 140 countries, its business offerings are extensive, from brokerage and hedging services in agricultural products, energy and metals, spot and forward currency trades, and derivatives clearing, margin financing and advisory support.

That array of financial networks, it turns out, can be highly profitable, especially during times of market volatility.

For the company’s fiscal third-quarter, StoneX reported net operating revenues came in at $719.7 million, up 47% year-over-year, while net income more than doubled to $127.9 million, a 102% increase.

Diluted earnings per share (EPS) reached $1, up 85% from a year earlier, above analysts’ estimates, and return on equity hit 18.4%, comfortably above the company’s own 15% long-term target.

Commercial and Institutional Lead the Growth

The Commercial segment, in particular, led much of the way. Revenue for the unit, covering hedging and physical commodities execution, jumped 97%. The Institutional segment grew 40% on record securities trading volumes tied to its recent major acquisition of the R.J. O’Brien business.

The lone soft spot was Self-Directed/Retail, where revenue fell 13% as retail trading activity cooled.

StoneX Extends Its Record Results

The recent growth trend is hardly confined to one quarter.

For the first nine months of fiscal 2026, net income doubled to $441.2 million and diluted EPS climbed 82% to $3.49. And that’s after the previous full year, ended Sept. 30, which itself set a record. Operating revenue rose 20% to $4.13 billion, net income climbed 17% to a record $305.9 million, diluted EPS reached $5.89, and return on equity came in at 15.6%, again above management’s target.

Acquisitions Add Fuel to Expansion

While much of the company’s growth is organic, it has also been fueled by acquisitions.

StoneX completed a roughly $900 million purchase of R.J. O’Brien & Associates on July 31, 2025, instantly making it the largest non-bank futures commission merchant in the United States by customer assets.

This year, on Aug. 12, StoneX agreed to acquire Banco Travelex S.A., Brazil’s first bank dedicated solely to foreign exchange, to expand its Latin American payments footprint. Most recently, it disclosed a deal for Advanced Marketing Group to broaden feed-ingredients trading capabilities.

Analysts Scale Back Upside

With just four analysts tracking the stock, StoneX has collected a consensus Buy rating, with one analyst placing a Strong Buy on the stock, one listing as Hold, and the other two placing a Buy.

The current 12-month consensus price target is $112 per share.

In fact, it was the move to $112 that hit the shares hard. Jefferies cut its price target to $112 from $123 back in July and warned that the stock’s valuation had gotten ahead of itself.

Rapid Growth Comes With Risks

There’s little doubt that StoneX is converting the market’s activity into revenue and earnings. Investors, however, should recognize how tightly StoneX’s earnings might be tied to market volatility and how violently the stock can react when that volatility cools.

It’s worth pointing out that there’s been roughly $114 million in insider stock sales over the past 90 days, and the picture might be one of a management team trimming exposure even as it talks up the coming synergies.

StoneX also competes with far larger rivals in some of its activities, such as Charles Schwab (NASDAQ: SCHW), LPL Financial Holdings (NASDAQ: LPLA), and Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS). And its push for acquisitions carries integration risk if the newest deals stumble.

Growth at a Reasonable Valuation

That’s not to say that StoneX is not a legitimate growth story trading at a value stock’s price. It might not be a stock, though, for anyone who wants a guaranteed smooth ride.

The underlying business keeps setting earnings records, management keeps finding attractive deals, and the trailing price-earnings ratio of below 17 looks reasonable next to the growth rate on offer.

Buy StoneX for the compounding, but only if you can stomach the quarterly whiplash that comes with it. READ THIS STORY ONLINE

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Romans 3:28

(28) Therefore we conclude that a man is justified by faith without the deeds of the law.
King James Version Change email Bible version

This concludes Paul’s entire discussion begun in Romans 3:10. The only way we can be justified—that is, have our sins forgiven and be brought into a right relationship with God—is through faith in the sacrifice of Christ. This justification is something that is imputed to us once we meet God’s conditions of repentance and baptism (Acts 2:38). We cannot earn it through lawkeeping or doing good works.

However, what many do not understand is that being justified is not the same as being saved. Justification is only one step on the road to salvation. Someone who has been justified cannot break God’s laws with impunity and expect to receive salvation anyway. To have our sins forgiven, we must repent from having broken the laws of God (Acts 3:19). To repent means “to turn around”—to stop sinning and orient our lives to obeying God’s law. Paul explains it plainly in Romans 3:31: “Do we then make void the law through faith? Certainly not! On the contrary, we establish the law.”

The true Christian, having repented from sin, has been given the gift of God’s Holy Spirit, which is the love of God that enables him to keep His laws in their full spiritual intent and purpose. He has been justified and has received God’s undeserved pardon. He realizes his sins caused Jesus Christ to have to suffer and die. Because of all of these things, the true Christian strives with all his might to resist the pulls of the flesh and to put sin out of his life.

Paul makes it very clear that the true Christian must not continue to live a life of sin. “What shall we say then? Shall we continue in sin that grace may abound? Certainly not! How shall we who died to sin live any longer in it?” (Romans 6:1-2). The true Christian understands that the way he lives and conducts his life has a great bearing upon whether he will inherit the Kingdom of God (Galatians 5:19-21).

To receive salvation, we must not only be justified, but we must live a life of obedience to the laws of God, developing the fruits of His Spirit in our lives (Galatians 5:22-23). Then—and only then—will God give us the gift of eternal life.

— Earl L. Henn

To learn more, see:
Saved By Faith Alone?