Dear Reader,

I try not to spend too much time on forecasts.

What matters more, in my experience, is watching where capital is actually moving.

And lately, the movement has been pretty consistent.

There’s a gradual rotation taking place.

Away from one part of the market…

It’s not dramatic.

You won’t necessarily hear about it on TV.

But you can see it in relative performance.

You can see it in trends that refuse to break down. You can see it in areas that continue to attract buyers.

After a long period where capital chased “ideas” – software, platforms, narratives – there are early signs it’s shifting toward more tangible assets.

That’s a key component of what I describe as the Chaos Cycle.

It’s less about storytelling… and more about supply, demand, and positioning.

And those forces tend to move before the narrative catches up.

By the time the story becomes clear, the price usually reflects it.

That’s why I focus on the shift itself.

This is where I’m seeing that rotation right now.

Stay sharp,

JC Parets, CMT
Founder, TrendLabs

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Thursday’s Featured Content

Kinder Morgan’s Cash Flow Drives Upside: Potential Swells in Q1

Reported by Thomas Hughes. First Published: 4/24/2026. 

Key Points

• Kinder Morgan outperformed in Q1 and is on track for a better-than-expected year.
• Cash flow and capital returns are strong; outperformance suggests distribution increases can accelerate.
• An expanding network and demand trends say the long-term forecasts are too low, and an uptrend can be sustained.
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Kinder Morgan (NYSE: KMI) is well-positioned as a leading middleman for natural gas markets. While the company’s business is diversified across energy markets, the focus remains on natural gas, where demand is swelling. Gas is becoming more readily available and many industries are turning to it as a cheaper, greener alternative to traditional fuels. Supply disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz have also shifted global demand toward the United States, while Kinder Morgan is doubling down on growth.

Kinder Morgan Is a High-Quality Growth (and Cash Flow) Machine

Among the company’s attractions are its fortress-like balance sheet and its ability to internally fund acquisitions. Highlights from fiscal Q1 include higher cash and assets, lower debt, improved equity, and capital returns. The company will buy back shares, though buybacks are irregular; the primary focus remains on sustainable dividends and distribution increases. KMI stock yields about 3.7% at recent support levels and has raised dividends for nine consecutive years.

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Other Q1 takeaways include an expected 2% dividend increase this year and indications that next year’s increase may be larger. The key message from guidance is that profitability metrics are running modestly ahead of budget and trends look favorable for investors.

The longer-term opportunity for investors lies in momentum from accelerating distributions likely to be announced later this year, on top of the company’s rapidly expanding network. Another tuck-in acquisition is reportedly in the works, projects were put in service in Q1, and backlog recovery is running better than a $1-for-$1 rate.

In this environment, KMI’s growth could accelerate and surpass consensus estimates. Analysts’ consensus currently forecasts roughly 7% revenue growth in 2026, versus nearly 14% reported in Q1, and projects a contraction in 2027. The more likely outcome—given the company’s trends and recent analyst revisions—is that KMI continues to perform strongly. Market reaction after the release has been solid, with numerous analysts lifting revenue, earnings, and price targets.

Analysts and Institutions Underpin KMI Stock Price Rally

MarketBeat tracks 17 analysts with current ratings. The consensus rating is Hold; coverage is steady, but price targets have been moving higher. Following the release, late-April consensus implies roughly 10% upside from the critical support level, with revisions nudging the high end of the range. A move into that high-end would put the stock at a fresh long-term high and on track to continue advancing.

Valuation metrics suggest upside could be in the high double digits over the next three to five years. Trading around 23x 2026 earnings, the stock appears fairly valued relative to the S&P 500. Under a modest growth scenario, the multiple could compress toward the mid-teens (around 16x) by 2030, but growth is likely to be stronger. Natural gas demand is expected to rise at a steady compound annual rate over the next several years—roughly 30% higher by 2031—and longer-term forecasts suggest growth will remain robust through the decade.

Institutional activity underscores the value opportunity entering 2026. Institutions own more than 60% of the shares and have been net buyers over the trailing 12 months. MarketBeat data show institutional buyers outnumber sellers by about $2-to-$1, a dynamic that helps sustain the rally. Short-sellers are a variable—short interest rose more than 10% as of early April but remains low at about 2.5%. In this context, shorts present only a modest headwind and are more likely to add upside if they cover their positions.

KMI Uptrend Intact: Market Tests Critical Support

The stock’s price action softened after the release, but that pullback is a normal retracement within an otherwise bullish trend rather than a red flag. The decline has tested support at a critical level that aligns with prior highs and the early-2026 breakout point, and it coincides with the long-term 150-day EMA. Given institutional buying trends, this level is likely to hold and could trigger a robust market response when tested. A move below it would not be fatal so long as no material negative news emerges and the price action recovers relatively quickly.

KMI’s biggest execution risk is project delivery. Natural gas pipelines, collection facilities, and liquefiers are complex and heavily regulated; investors should expect hurdles, delays, and regulatory roadblocks. Insider selling is another consideration—insiders have trimmed positions—but they still own a meaningful roughly 12% stake, benefit from share-based compensation, and have realized significant gains since the stock bottomed about five years ago.

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Just For You

Investing in Rare Earth Elements: How the REXC ETF Bypasses China’s Dominance

Submitted by Jessica Mitacek. Date Posted: 4/28/2026. 

Key Points

• China controls approximately 90% of global rare earth element (REE) refining and has leveraged its dominance by implementing strict export controls, making REE supply a national security priority for the United States. 
• The global REE market is projected to reach $6.28 billion by 2030, driven by the essential role those 17 elements play in high-growth industries like semiconductors, EVs, aerospace, and artificial intelligence.
• The new Sprott Rare Earths Ex-China ETF (REXC) allows investors to bypass Chinese market risks by focusing on producers in Australia, the United States, and Canada, though it carries a relatively high expense ratio for a passively managed fund.
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When it comes to commodities, individual countries often dominate global reserves. While the United States may be the world’s largest oil producer, Venezuela holds the world’s largest proven oil reserves with more than 300 billion barrels. Australia and Russia have the largest unmined gold deposits, and Brazil is the world’s largest producer of soybeans.

For rare earth elements (REEs), China dominates the market with an estimated 44 million metric tons, accounting for roughly 40% to 49% of known global reserves. The country also leads in production, mining just under 70% of the world’s supply and refining nearly 90% of it.

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REEs are critical to energy, aerospace and defensesystems, artificial intelligence and data centers, semiconductors, robotics, EVs, and many other industries. China’s dominance prompted President Donald Trump to invoke the Defense Production Actin March after the administration labeled REEs a national security priority.

For investors wanting to circumvent the ongoing trade tensions with China and related geopolitical risks, a new exchange-traded fund offers pure-play exposure while excluding Chinese companies. That approach can add a layer of protection if China again enacts REE export controls.

Global Demand for REEs Continues to Grow

REEs encompass 17 metallic elements essential to tech applications, lasers, and magnets. Despite their name, they aren’t rare in abundance; they are rare in concentrated, easily extractable deposits that can be economically mined.

According to Grand View Research, the global REE market was estimated at $3.95 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach $6.28 billion by 2030, a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.6% during the forecast period.

While the Asia Pacific region commands 86% revenue share, Grand View projects the U.S. REE market to outpace global growth with a projected CAGR of 9.2% between 2025 and 2030—an important consideration given China’s past export controls.

On April 4, 2025, China instituted major restrictions on the export of seven REEs, followed by a second wave of restrictions on Oct. 9, 2025; some of those October measures were later reported by Xinhua as suspended through Nov. 10, 2026.

There are currently no expectations that China will lift those controls before the end of the decade, as they appear to be part of a tactical strategy that uses case-by-case authorizations as levers for geopolitical pressure.

That backdrop presents an opportunity for investors in the recently debuted Sprott Rare Earths Ex-China ETF (NASDAQ: REXC).

The ETF Providing a Rare Opportunity for Rare Earths

REXC’s portfolio focuses on REE producers, development-stage miners, processors, and specialty materials companies operating outside of China.

By taking an ex-China approach, the fund aims to offer a thematic alternative for investors seeking diversified REE supply-chain exposure while avoiding the risks associated with China’s dominant role in the market.

According to Sprott, the fund’s issuer, “the [REXC] invests exclusively in companies outside of Chinathat may have significant growth potential as supply chain security becomes a national priority.”

This targeted exposure still gives investors access to the Asia Pacific region’s REE production while tapping into the United States’ higher projected CAGR.

Companies based in Australia account for nearly 52% of the fund’s holdings. That’s notable: Australia holds significant REE reserves—the fourth-largest stockpile globally, at about 5.7 million metric tons. The REXC’s second-largest holding by weight, at just over 17%, is Australia-based Lynas Rare Earths Limited (OTCMKTS: LYSCF)—a Buy-rated stock that analysts see as having nearly 60% upside over the next 12 months based on its consensus price target.

About 36% of the portfolio consists of U.S.-based companies, including Las Vegas-headquartered MP Materials (NYSE: MP)—the ETF’s largest holding by weight and market value. Accounting for around 20% of the fund’s portfolio, MP is also a Buy-rated stock that analysts see as having nearly 22% upside over the next 12 months based on its consensus price target.

Companies based in Canada and the United Kingdom make up another 14.7% of the fund’s holdings.

The REXC’s Targeted Exposure Comes With Caveats

While the fund could benefit if Chinese REE stocks face headline risks, investors should be aware of several considerations. First, the fund is passively managed but carries a relatively high expense ratio of 0.65%.

Prospective investors should also consider the fund’s thematic concentration risk and the potential for overexposure to REEs. Commodity prices can be volatile and are subject to project delays, regulatory changes, and other industry-specific risks.

Liquidity can also be light. As a newly debuted ETF, average daily trading volume is under 222,000 shares. For investors who see the appreciation potential of a strategic, China-free REE play, limited liquidity may be acceptable for long-term holders; however, active traders should exercise caution, use limit orders, and be mindful of bid-ask spreads.

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Today’s Bonus Content: Ticker Revealed: Pre-IPO Access to “Next Elon Musk” Company(From Banyan Hill Publishing)