RJ Hamster
What’s going on with Paul Skenes?
Wednesday, August 05
Welcome to The Pregame Lineup, a weekday newsletter that gets you up to speed on everything you need to know for today’s games, while catching you up on fun and interesting stories you might have missed. Today’s edition is brought to you by David Adler.
We never thought we’d be asking this question, but here we are: What’s wrong with Paul Skenes?
The reigning National League Cy Young winner is simply having a very un-Paul-Skenes-like season. And we want to get to the bottom of it.
Now, Skenes is so good that something “wrong” with him means he’s still the seventh-most valuable pitcher in the Majors by FanGraphs’ Wins Above Replacement. But 2024-25 Skenes set such a lofty standard that we can’t just ignore the difference.
Skenes enters tonight’s start against the division-rival Brewers (7:40 p.m. ET on ESPN) with an ERA nearly two runs higher than it was in either of his first two years in the big leagues. He’s at 3.90 in 2026 — including a 5.18 mark over his last 14 starts — after posting a 1.96 ERA as a rookie in 2024 and a 1.97 ERA en route to the Cy in 2025.
Somehow, the Pirates have managed to stay in the NL Wild Card race even without their ace pitching his best. So today, Travis Sawchik took a deep dive into Skenes’ numbers to try to diagnose what’s going on.
Here are three factors he highlights:
1) The velocity dip
Skenes’ fastball velocity has dipped from 98.8 mph in 2024 to 98.2 mph in 2025 to 96.9 mph in 2026. While Skenes has downplayed the impact of that dropoff, velocity does matter. Losing it can have a ripple effect across a pitcher’s arsenal — Skenes’ stuff has graded out significantly worse than usual this season.
2) Less efficiency
Skenes is a workhorse, but he’s gotten slightly less efficient compared to the last two years. He’s not locating his pitches in the strike zone as often (down from 51% to 46%), and that leads to not going as deep into games. Skenes is averaging fewer innings per start than he did in 2024 and ’25.
3) Bad luck
Based just on his strikeouts, walks and quality of contact allowed, Skenes deserves to have better numbers than he does. His expected ERA is 2.93, almost a full run lower than his actual ERA and one of the best marks among starters. If Skenes’ real ERA were 2.93 right now, no one would be worrying about him.
At the end of all this, there’s one more question Sawchik tries to answer: Can the elite version of Skenes return down the stretch?
GAMES OF THE NIGHT
Besides Skenes vs. the Brew Crew, here are two more games to watch tonight.
White Sox at Red Sox (7:10 p.m. ET, MLB.TV)
The battle of the Sox continues at Fenway. The Red Sox have won six games in a row after taking yesterday’s series opener with a four-homer, 14-run barrage that moved them to a season-high 10 games over .500. And there’s no one better to try to make it seven in a row than Sonny Gray, who leads the AL with 13 wins this season.
Padres at D-backs (9:40 p.m. ET, MLB.TV)
Casey Mize makes his Padres debut after San Diego got him from the Tigers on Monday in a Trade Deadline buzzer-beater. Mize, who was a first-time All-Star last season, has arguably been even better this year, with a 2.70 ERA in his 16 starts and 85 strikeouts in 86 2/3 innings.
THE PHILLIES ARE BATTING WHO CLEANUP?
The Phillies have the National League home run leader (Kyle Schwarber, with 33). The Phillies now also have the National League batting leader (Luis Arraez, with a .325 average).
One of those players bats leadoff. One of those players bats cleanup. Can you guess which is which?
You guessed it — Schwarber, the masher, the two-time home run king, is the Phillies’ leadoff man. Arraez, the slap-hitter, the three-time batting champion, is the Phillies’ cleanup hitter.
Arraez’s Phillies debut yesterday, after he arrived from the Giants at the Trade Deadline, made for a fun lesson in modern MLB lineup construction. The contact hitter does not simply bat at the top of the order to set the table for the power hitters in the middle. Those stereotypical roles don’t exist anymore.
Instead, you get a top four on your lineup card that looks like this:
- Kyle Schwarber
- Trea Turner
- Bryce Harper
- Luis Arraez
Paul Casella takes a closer look at the Phillies’ strategy here >>
AROUND THE LEAGUE
Here’s the news and notes from around the Majors.
• If you tuned in for the start of today’s Dodgers-Cubs game at Wrigley Field, you were in for a treat: dueling leadoff home runs from NL MVP candidates Shohei Ohtani and Pete Crow-Armstrong. Ohtani drew closer to Dodgers history with his 29th leadoff homer for L.A. , only for PCA to pull the Cubs even in the bottom of the first with his own leadoff shot to center. Watch Ohtani’s homer here and PCA’s homer here.
• Yankees top prospect George Lombard Jr. had a heck of an MLB debut last night. The 21-year-old launched a home run for his first career hit and dazzled with his glove at shortstop. He was the youngest player to start at shortstop for the Yankees since — who else? — Derek Jeter on June 11, 1995.
• Matt Olson tied Hall of Famer Stan Musial for eighth place all-time on MLB’s most consecutive games played list. The Braves’ stalwart first baseman played in his 895th straight game yesterday against the Marlins, and Olson is set to pass Stan the Man tonight (7:15 p.m. ET, MLB.TV).
• Tarik Skubal looked strong in his Dodgers debut, tossing six innings of two-run, six-strikeout baseball against the Cubs in his first career start at Wrigley Field. The ace southpaw now has a 2.81 ERA on the season and 122 K’s in 102 2/3 innings. The Cubs took the win, but Skubal and the Dodgers have their eyes set on the postseason.
• See who’s moving up in the post-Trade Deadline edition of our Power Rankings. (Hint: The team that just got Skubal looks pretty good.)
PLAYERS SET UP TO THRIVE WITH NEW TEAMS
Some players can benefit from a change of scenery more than others. So who fits the bill from this year’s traded players?
Max Ralph tried to identify the seven players traded at the Deadline who stand to gain the most from their new situation.
Players like:
Clay Holmes with the Cubs
Holmes is a ground-ball machine, ranking in the top 5% of MLB pitchers with a 55% ground-ball rate induced. The Cubs defense vacuums up ground balls — they’re MLB’s best fielding team by Statcast’s Fielding Run Value stat.
Heliot Ramos with the Yankees
Ramos’ power numbers could get a boost at Yankee Stadium, even though he’s a right-handed hitter. That’s because he has a lot of pop to the opposite field. Ramos would have a projected 13 home runs this season if he’d played all his games in the Bronx, compared to the nine homers he actually has.
Freddy Peralta with the Rays
While Peralta’s Rays debut at hitter-friendly Coors Field didn’t go so well, “Fastball Freddy” might pick up a few tricks on one of his other pitch types, the changeup, from a Tampa Bay team that has mastered it.
See the other members of the 2026 clean-slate club here >>
MLB.TV TRADE DEADLINE SALE
The Trade Deadline has passed, but the MLB.TV Trade Deadline sale is still running.
From now through Sunday, an MLB.TV Seasonal subscription is discounted to $34.99, bringing you every out-of-market regular-season game, live or on demand. As an added bonus, U.S. fans can watch MLB Network 24/7 with their MLB.TV subscription.
An MLB+ Yearly subscription is also available for $49.99. Enjoy access to MLB Network 24/7 and MLB Big Inning, live out-of-market games and home and away radio broadcasts of every game blackout-free. Plus, step into the batter’s box with Gameday 3D and watch live MiLB games throughout the season.
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