RJ Hamster
What the Kentucky Derby Teaches Us About Winning Trades
What the Kentucky Derby Teaches Us About Winning Trades
BY LANDON SWAN, FOUNDER, LIKEFOLIO
Derby week is here in Louisville.
And for my brother Andy and me, this isn’t just a big event.
We grew up around tracks like this – spending weekends with our grandfather, learning how to read the program and placing small bets before we were old enough to drive.
You pick up a few things doing that.
The biggest one: The smartest bettors aren’t trying to pick the winner. They’re structuring bets so they can still cash in, even if they’re not perfectly right.
That idea – more than anything – shaped how we think about markets today.
And it’s exactly how we approach earnings season.
Every week, our LikeFolio data engine processes more than 500 million consumer data points from social media, web traffic, app downloads, and more.
We’re tracking purchase intent, consumer happiness, and demand trends for hundreds of publicly traded companies – and looking for gaps between what the data is saying and what Wall Street expects heading into earnings.
That gap is our edge. The Earnings Scorecard is how we turn it into actionable trades every week.
Think of it as the ultimate tip sheet for earnings season. Every company reporting that week gets an Earnings Score – a single number from -100 to +100 – built from our consumer data. You can see which names our data has called correctly in the past, what trade the setup suggests, and exactly how to place it. All in one place, now inside TradeSmith Finance.
And like any good tip sheet, it pays…
“Another win.
32% return in the DKS spread.
5 winning weeks out of 8.
Let’s go for 6.”
– George W., Earnings Season Passmember
That’s what a real edge looks like.
Not picking the winner every time. Running a system that pays over time.
That’s how you get to an average gain of 14.8% across nearly 1,800 trades since 2023.
It all comes back to the same idea: You don’t need to pick the winner. You need to structure the trade the right way before the race even starts…
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A “Place Bet” in the Market
Let me show you what that looks like in practice.
United Airlines (UAL) High-Probability Bullish
- Earnings Score: +60 Bullish
- Digital Demand: +17% year over year
- Historical Score: 7/10
- Result: +22 to +33%
Heading into United Airlines’ (UAL)earnings, our data showed demand holding strong – web visits up +17% year over year.
But we didn’t take that as a reason to go “all in” on the best possible result.
We used a High-Probability Bullish spread, the right tool when options are priced high relative to how a stock has historically moved.
Think of it like a place bet at the track – where you just need a horse to finish at least in second.
UAL didn’t need to win big. It just needed to stay in the race.
United beat on both EPS and revenue, with profits jumping 80%. UAL moved into max profit range. Members who followed our early exit guidance locked in a +22% gain in four days. Those who held through Friday’s close captured +33%.
“I did the spread on UAL and held on for a 33% gain. Another in the win column.”
– George W., Earnings Season Passmember
“I won this time too. Great system! Thank you.”
– Cho S., Earnings Season Passmember
That’s the process working as designed.
The data finds the setup. The Scorecard measures conviction. And the trade structure turns that insight into a bet that can still pay – even if the outcome isn’t perfect.
That’s how you survive a 20-horse field.
High-Probability trades stack the odds – you’re winning nearly three out of four, with steady, consistent gains.
The “Very” setups are reserved for when the data is especially strong and the market is underpricing the move – lower hit rate, but the winners can return 2–3x or more.
Together, that mix is what drives the 14.8% average gain across a full season.
And now, for the first time, all of it lives inside a single dashboard that does the heavy lifting for you.
The Tip Sheet for Earnings Season
At the track, serious bettors don’t guess. They use a program… A tip sheet… A system.
That’s what the new Earnings Scorecard is built to be.
It scans every available strike combination in real time, structures the trade to match the strategy, calculates the right number of contracts based on the impact you want the trade to have on your account, and shows you max gain, max loss, breakeven, and total cost with live pricing. Then you copy and paste it directly into your broker.
That’s it. No manual math, no digging through options chains, no execution guesswork.
And members are noticing:
“This tool is phenomenal… copy/paste to ToS – are you kidding me?! This tool has kind of reset the bar for the other TradeSmith services.”
– Tammy, Earnings Season Passmember
Member Doug H. wrote in to single out one feature specifically:
“How much better the Earnings Season Pass is after the addition of the ‘Historical Performance’ to the Earnings Scorecard, which is now conveniently on the TS website.”
– Doug H., Earnings Season Passmember
Historical Performance tells you which names have actually earned your trust. The trade builder shows you exactly how to structure the bet. And the system does the math for you – before you ever place a trade.
As I always say: Keep it small. You don’t need to bet big to win.
You need to place a few smart bets – and let the probabilities play out.
That’s how the math works in your favor over a full season.
Race Time – Tonight at 7:00 p.m.
The next Earnings Season PassScorecard drops tonight at 7 p.m. Eastern.
It features more than 50 trading opportunities on some of the biggest names of the season – AMD (AMD), Coinbase (COIN), DoorDash (DASH), and dozens more.
The setups are ready. The data has spoken. The trades will be ready to place the moment the market opens.
If you’re not in yet, now’s the time.
We’ll see you at the window.
Cheers,
Landon Swan
Founder, LikeFolio
