TOM VERDUCCI 

Tom Verducci delivers a mix of expert commentary, inside angles and thoughtful perspectives on baseball’s biggest storylines every week.

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⚾ The Leadoff

Dustin Bradford/Getty Images

Pitching Longevity Has Officially Hit an All-Time Low

The frenzy at the trade deadline to find starting pitching was years in the making. Major league teams have been developing starters to be the equivalent of sprinters, not middle-distance runners. The craft of pitching has devolved into a brutally physical task in which burst effort has replaced modulated effort.

From pitch No. 1, the mission for starters is to throw as hard and as nasty as they can to get swings and misses, leave the game early and require more days of rest to recover.

Sure, this trend is familiar. But we have grown so inured to this decline that we miss just how low starting pitcher workload continues to sink. Last month, for instance, complete games in July hit an all-time low for the month: 2 (by Dylan Cease and Yoshinobu Yamamoto).

It marked only the fourth time in any full month with such a low total of complete games—three of which have occurred in the past six months.

Fewest CG in a Full MonthMonthCGGames StartedAugust 20251842March/April 20221634March/April 20262936July 20262742

The pace of deterioration is accelerating. For examples:

• Starters averaged 5.03 innings in July, the fewest ever in the month.
• The starters-relievers workload split this year is 57%-43%. Fifteen years ago, it was 65%-35%.
• No pitcher has thrown more than 120 pitches in almost a game—since Justin Verlander on Aug. 31, 2025. In 2011 there were 100 such games.
• The unofficial, arbitrary upper limit of pitches has dropped from 120 to 110. There have been only 13 starts this season in which a pitcher threw 110 pitches—four of them by Cease. No one else has even two 110-pitch games.

Here is a visual of how fast and how far the limits on pitching have been pulled back. You don’t have to go back a generation or two. Here is how much starting pitching has changed in only 15 years, or just since Nathan Eovaldi debuted:

Heck, I wouldn’t get on a roller coaster with that precipitous of a dip. The end of velocity modulation is evident in this next chart. It shows the average four-seam velocity by inning 15 years apart. It’s scary enough to think the velocity in the first inning today is higher than what it was in the ninth inning in 2011. Think of it as starters bringing traditional closers’ stuff to the mound.

But the key takeaway from the shape of the lines is the rapid death of modulation. The blue line (2011) curves more. The orange line (2026) is flatter.

In 2011, the average velocity difference between the first (92.1 mph) and ninth (94.1) innings was 2.0 mph, or 2.2%. In 2016, the delta from first (94.9) to ninth (95.5) is just 0.6 mph, or 0.06%. Pitching is on blast from start to finish.

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Christian Kantosky/Getty Images

Left Side Story in Boston

The Red Sox have two left-handed rookies in their rotation who are 25 or under, Payton Tolle and Jake Bennett. That has happened only once before in franchise history (minimum 12 starts): in 1949, when Mickey McDermott, then 20, and Chuck Stobbs, 19, combined to go 16–10 for a Boston team that won 96 games and finished second.

Stobbs made his major league debut at 18 and was traded at 22 to the White Sox, who flipped him soon to the Senators, where he became part of Washington’s colorful if inglorious legacy. Stobbs gave up the mammoth 1951 home run to Mickey Mantle that sailed out of Griffith Stadium and birthed the concept of the tape measure home run. Yankees PR director Red Patterson measured the blast at 565 feet.

Five years later, Stobbs threw what was purported to be the wildest wild pitch ever: a pitch that landed 17 rows deep into the stands. The next year, 1957, he entered in the 10th inning of the final game of the season with a record of 8–19. He promptly gave up hits to all three batters he faced and took loss number 20.

Tolle, 23, and Bennett, 25, are more promising—and oddly alike. They are tall lefties that get down the mound with elite extension. Indeed, the Red Sox have a type they prefer. There are only 35 lefties with an extension of 6.7 feet or greater (min. 500 pitches). Six of them have pitched for Boston this year: Tolle, Bennett, Garrett Crochet, Connelly Early, Erik Miller and Aroldis Chapman.

That’s not all Tolle and Bennett have in common:​Payton TolleJake BennettHometownBethany, Okla.Bixby, Okla.ThrowsLeftLeftAge2325Height6’6″6’6″Weight234250Draft RoundSecondSecondExtension7.37.12026 ERA3.303.17Career High IP (including college)108 1/31172026 Innings107116

Those last two categories are fascinating. Tolle and Bennett with their next starts will set career highs in innings pitched—with still eight or nine starts remaining in a pennant race and then the postseason looming. The Red Sox must find a way to give them some rest down the stretch, especially because of how hard they’ve been worked. Tolle has made six of his 19 starts on four days rest (one day less than standard) and Bennett five of 13.

Most Innings on Four Days Rest, U-25 Lefthanders, 2026PlayerIP1. Parker Messick, Guardians572. Jake Bennett, Red Sox30 2/33. Payton Tolle, Red Sox30 1/3 

Julio Aguilar/Getty Images

Wilson’s Model (and Record) Glove

Jacob Wilson of the Athletics on Sunday played in his 111th consecutive game without an error, breaking the record held by Mike Bordick. Defensive metrics are so notoriously unreliable that Outs Above Average wants you to believe that Wilson has gone from a below-average defender last year (-3) to elite this year (+8), thanks in part to his range improving from -2 to +6.

Says Athletics manager Mark Kotsay, “He may not have the elite range Statcast likes, but he is in the right place at the right time, makes every play and has a cannon for an arm. He is fundamentally as sound as it gets.”

When you watch Wilson play shortstop, pay attention to his feet. He has exceptional footwork while possessing an uncanny knack for reading hops. You almost never see Wilson in position of trying to field a bad hop.

📺 Breakdown of the Week

 

What’s wrong with Paul Skenes? In 11 starts since June 9, he is 3–5 with a 5.28 ERA. The Pirates are 3–8 in those 11 starts.

June 9 was the day Skenes adjusted his stride to be less crossfire than ever before. Notice the difference in his feet position (more direct to the plate) and hand position (less offset) in these back-to-back starts:

He has become even more direct since June 9. By not stepping across his body as much, Skenes is releasing the baseball with 8–9″ less offset (from the center line of the plate). The effect of a lesser horizontal attack angle is particularly obvious against right-handed hitters:Skenes vs. RHH, 2026Horizontal ReleaseBASLGThrough June 8-2.67.193.307Since-2.18.301.470

For a more detailed look at what’s going on, check out this breakdown. This graph shows how Skenes’s slump coincides with the sudden change to his stride direction and release point, which has never been this direct in his career: 

 

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📺 TV on TV This Week

Saturday, Aug. 15: Red Sox @ Pirates, 7 p.m. ET (Fox)

How hot were the Red Sox? Historically hot. They became the 10th team since 1900 to rip off a 30-game streak of 27–3 or better. They outscored opponents 180–84 in that run, making them only the fourth of those teams with a run differential of +96 or better.

Best Run Differential in 30-Game Span with 27+ Wins (Since 1900)TeamRun DifferentialFinish1. 2017 Cleveland+121Lost ALDS2. 1906 Cubs+108Lost WS3. 1941 Yankees+97Won WS4. 2026 Red Sox+96?5. 1947 Yankees+92Won WS

In their run the Red Sox went 7–1 in one-run games (they had been 6–12) and 24–0 when they scored more than three runs. 

Best of SI Baseball

• Tom Verducci: The 12 Most Interesting Takeaways From the Trade Deadline
• Jimmy Traina: MLB’s Partnership With NBC Has Been a Home Run
• Karl Rasmussen: George Lombard Jr. Has What It Takes to Succeed Where Anthony Volpe Faltered
• Nick Selbe, Tim Capurso, Karl Rasmussen: MLB Power Rankings: Grading Each Team’s Trade Deadline
• Karl Rasmussen: The Four Biggest Missed Opportunities of the Trade Deadline

 

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