TOM VERDUCCI 

Tom Verducci delivers a mix of expert commentary, inside angles and thoughtful perspectives on baseball’s biggest storylines every week.

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⚾ The Leadoff

Daniel Bartel/Getty Images

Five Changes That Have Led to the Red Sox’ Surge

Fenway Park is full. The fans are having a rollicking good time falling in love with their Red Sox. President of baseball operations Craig Breslow can take a bow for his once-maligned “Milwaukee East” plan to build a team in a hitter’s park on pitching, defense and undersized players.

Has there ever been a team that turned around its season so completely yet so quickly? With apologies to the sign-stealing 1951 New York Giants, probably not.

On June 18, the Red Sox had a 5.6% probability of making the playoffs. Entering Sunday, it was 66.9%.

Starting play on June 25, the Red Sox were 32–46—one of 473 teams with a record at least that bad through 78 games. How many of those 473 teams made the playoffs?

Zero. Never happened.

Since then, the Red Sox ripped off a 17–2 run in which they have outscored opponents 100–53 and look like a playoff team. Under interim manager Chad Tracy, the Red Sox are channeling “Morgan’s Magic” of 1988, when the Sox ran off 12 straight wins and an 18–1 run after “Walpole” Joe Morgan took over as manager from John McNamara. At the heart of Boston’s revival is the exact vision Breslow had when he put together this team without much power: winning with pitching and defense. Check this out:

Lowest ERA in 17–2 or Better Span, Boston Red SoxYearERASeason Outcome19462.42Won pennant19422.4393 wins, second place20182.54Won World Series20262.55?19852.5581 wins, fifth place

The turnaround began June 25 with a four-game sweep of the Yankees at Fenway Park, where the Red Sox had been 13–30. It continued with a 9–0 trip that included the 24-hour fiasco of a trip from Chicago to New York.

“It started [that] homestand just because of all the documentation on how we had played at home and the Yankee series,” Tracy says. “You could feel it happening there. Just winning games at home and it started to gel and some of the guys that have come in brought energy. And then obviously the road trip.”

Nothing binds a team more than winning on the road, especially with schedule and travel challenges. What are built-in reasons to complain can become mortar for winning teams.

“You’re not wrong,” Tracy says. “Yeah, you get stuck [on an airplane]—[Payton] Tolle said that you get stuck in an eight-foot tube with a bunch of people for 10 hours—you’re going to get a little closer.”

How did this turnaround happen? Here are the key reasons why the Red Sox have made this surge:

1. Firing manager Alex Cora

Cora is a brilliant baseball mind, but going back to the Rafael Devers fiasco there was a growing sense that the front office and manager were not aligned on personnel and direction. Hiring Tracy, who managed many of the Boston players in the minors, and who as a rookie manager would be in sync with the front office, created a seamless transition and clubhouse stability.

2. Throwing strikes (and catching the ball)

Only the Mariners and Rays throw more strikes than do the Red Sox. Only five teams have a lower walk rate. Pitching coach Andrew Bailey puts a premium on his pitchers filling the strike zone, especially because the Red Sox have the best defense in the AL, as ranked by outs above average.

“Well, if you’re in the dugout, you can hear Bails all the time,” Tracy says. “He’ll be screaming. A guy gets 2–0 and you can hear him in there, ‘No walks! No walks!’ We want to force the ball in play. A big part of it is we have guys with good stuff. And trust your stuff. Like, ‘Your stuff plays in the zone’—our starters and our relievers.

“So, we have guys with good stuff. Trust your stuff. Get it over the zone. And on top of that, this is the other piece of this that’s really important, ‘Oh, by the way, you have a fantastic defense behind you. So, there is really no reason, with your stuff combined with what the guys that are standing behind you do with the gloves, not to get in there.’

“You feel like even if a guy hits the ball hard towards the outfield, somebody’s going to catch it, you know? If they hit a ball hard towards the infield, [Chad] Durbin, the way he’s been, and Willson [Contreras], somebody’s going to catch it. So, I think that’s helped. You’d have to ask the guys, but I think the pitchers would probably tell you when you feel like everybody behind you is going to catch the ball, it’s really easy to get in the zone.”

3. Hitting home runs

The Red Sox are 28th in home runs. The way to a championship in today’s game is still through the home run. The past six World Series champions all ranked in the top four in MLB in homers. But Boston is a far more powerful team than how it began the season.

The Red Sox’s home run rate improved from 0.86 per game in the first 78 games to 1.37 in the next 19. The chief turnarounds have come from Chad Durbin, who has been getting the ball in the air since seeing a private hitting coach in Waltham, Mass., and Wilyer Abreu, whose 13-degree launch angle through May has soared to 27 degrees since.

4. A lockdown bullpen

After starting the year 7–18, the Boston bullpen is 6–0 in July with MLB bests in ERA (1.65 ERA) and WHIP (0.90). Garrett Whitlock and Aroldis Chapman have allowed just four homers in 68 combined appearances. When the Red Sox have a win in hand, they don’t let it get away.

5. Luck

The Red Sox were 5-12 in one-run games through 78 games. They are 4–0 since. Based on run differential, Boston should have four more wins than they do. Only the Angels and Tigers have a greater differential.

Things were bound to turn around for Boston. But this much this quickly? This is a turnaround of historic proportions.

Jim McIsaac/Getty Images

The Next PCA?

Only Riley Greene of the Tigers and Taylor Ward of the Orioles have improved their chase rate more than Pete Crow-Armstrong of the Cubs (-6.2). It’s still too high (35.5%), but as it comes down, you’re beginning to see just how high his ceiling might be.

The same path might be there for Ceddanne Rafaela of Boston. Like PCA, he is an elite center field defender and runner who is an extremely talented bad-ball hitter who is improving his sky-high chase rate (41.1%). There is a huge upside still there for his offensive game.

“What’s crazy is you say a really high chase rate, but it’s not nearly as high as it was, you know?” Tracy says. “And so, exactly what you said, he has some chase, but he has the ability to hit bad balls and hit them for home runs and doubles.

“So, you don’t want to take away the aggressiveness, but it was always with Rafa like, ‘Can we rein it in a little bit?’ I haven’t looked at it here recently, but last month I was looking at it and it was about 8 or 9% better than it had been. And you see the results with that.

“He’s taken some walks and the work he’s done with two strikes has been impressive—the ability to minimize the chase with two strikes. He shortened up his move. Everything’s more compact, and he’s willing to use the other side of the field and just slap a single or a double to right center field. You can see a discernible difference in how much less movement there is going on with two strikes. So, all of those things have helped him immensely.”

Scott Taetsch/Getty Images

Judging the Yankees Without Judge

The Yankees entered play Sunday with the fewest wins against winning teams than any team in baseball (15–16). They play their first 22 games out of the break against winning teams, with another six against 2025 playoff teams Seattle and Toronto.
Aaron Judge has missed almost two months with his fractured rib and still is not cleared to begin baseball activities. The Yankees still expect him back before the regular season ends, but it’s beginning to look like a short ramp-up to get him ready for the postseason.

Without Judge—and maybe even with him—the Yankees have a shallow lineup that is vulnerable to left-handed pitching. The Dodgers exploited that weakness Friday by using three consecutive left-handed relievers to lock down a 2–1 win by getting 10 outs while allowing one hit.

Finding a right-handed hitting catcher before the trade deadline should be a New York priority. Ryan Jeffers of Minnesota would be an ideal fit, but the Twins have become a surprising playoff contender that leads the AL in runs per game. The Reds could move Tyler Stephenson, but he’s hitting .192 against lefthanders and is a below average bat. Hunter Goodman of Colorado, who has hit 18 of his 27 homers away from Denver, would cost an enormous price if he were available. The Nationals’ Keibert Ruiz, hitting .307 against lefties, might be a more logical option.

The decline of Yankees catcher Austin Wells is baffling. He can’t hit breaking pitches (.093) and is a .198 hitter over the past two years. 

Yankees catchers are hitting .175, a franchise worst in the live ball era. But the position is a problem around MLB. Three teams this season are getting less than a .180 batting average out of their catchers—as many as in the previous 105 years.

Worst Batting Average by Catchers in Full Seasons Since 1920TeamBatting Average2015 Mariners.1592026 White Sox.1682024 White Sox.1732026 Yankees.1752019 Tigers.1762026 Phillies.178

Scott Taetsch/Getty Images

The Strange Decline of Kyle Tucker

Including the luxury tax penalty, the Dodgers are paying Kyle Tucker $119.7 million this season, more than the Opening Day payrolls of 11 teams. Ninety-two games into a four-year, $240-million contract, Tucker, 29, has been a huge disappointment. The lack of pop in his bat has been alarming. Tucker has posted career full-season worsts in bat speed (71.3), exit velocity (88.8), hard-hit percentage (39%), rollover groundballs (22.4%), barrel rate (5.8%), two-strike hitting (.165) and runners in scoring position (.247). His frustration sometimes has been evident. Manager Dave Roberts, however, thinks he may be turning a corner.

“The quality of his at-bats the past two weeks has been the best it’s been all year,” Roberts says. “There have been times when he’ll go into the cage after games and work with the hitting guys.”

What also is alarming is how Tucker’s defense and baserunning have slipped. His fielding run value has dropped from 0 last year (52nd percentile) to -3 (22nd percentile), with a noticeable drop in range. His baserunning value and sprint speed continue a gradual decline. He has not attempted a stolen base in more than a month. 

The Dodgers paid an AAV premium to get Tucker on a short-term deal designed to buy his prime years without the cost of a back-end decline phase. This is not the version of Tucker they had in mind.

📺 Breakdown of the Week

 

Maybe it was the eight days of rest. Maybe it was the stage of pitching at Yankee Stadium. Maybe it was not tipping his pitches. (The Dodgers have tried to get him to come set with his hands close to his body rather than extended away, but he says he is not comfortable from that position. The tipping pops up from time to time in the heat of competition.)

Or maybe, as Roki Sasaki explained his breakout start Friday, it was the result of using his lower half better.

Sasaki entered his start with a firm fastball (97.6 mph average) but with low spin and mediocre induced vertical break (16 inches) that make it very hittable. Batters were hitting .314 against it with a .606 slug, the worst off any four-seamer except the one of Dodgers teammate Emmet Sheehan. Sasaki’s fastball was the seventh worst pitch in MLB as ranked by run value.

And then suddenly Sasaki fired his heater with two to three more ticks on it. After hitting 100 mph 31 times in his first 33 career games, Sasaki hit triple digits 21 times Friday. Only Jacob Misiorowski threw more pitches 100 mph in a game this year.

The Yankees did go 3-for-10 against Sasaki’s fastball. But he did command it well and it complemented his wicked splitter well enough to cover 17 outs in only the second start of his career without allowing an earned run.

The All-Star break gave Sasaki time for a reset, both mentally and mechanically, and he used the time well. As you can see above, Sasaki did not undergo a massive overhaul of his delivery. He gained more power by sinking into his legs more and staying over the rubber a fraction longer, delivering the baseball later and hotter.

📺 TV on TV This Week

Saturday, July 25: Padres at Marlins, 4 p.m. ET (FS1)

The Marlins are one of the most fun watches in MLB. They run the bases aggressively and string together hits—something that often escapes the .226-hitting Padres, the worst hitting team in MLB.

Impressively, the Marlins have put together a dynamic offense filled mostly with young players acquired from other clubs. Here is how the usual starting lineup for Miami was acquired:Position/Player/AgeHow AcquiredC: Joe Mack, 232021 first-round draft pick1B: Kyle Stowers, 282024 trade from Orioles2B: Xavier Edwards, 262022 trade from RaysSS: Otto Lopez, 272024 waiver claim from Giants3B: Javier Sanoja, 232019 international free agentLF: Heriberto Hernandez, 262024 minor-league free agentCF: Jacob Marsee, 252024 trade from PadresRF: Griffin Conine, 292020 trade from  Blue JaysDH: Liam Hicks2024 Rule 5 pick from Tigers 

Best of SI Baseball

• Tom Verducci: The Tao of the Miz
• Ryan Phillips: Every Contender’s Glaring Weakness Ahead of the Trade Deadline
• Tim Capurso: Seven Bold Predictions for the Second Half
• Ryan Phillips: MLB Draft Winners and Losers: White Sox Nail It, Red Sox Play It Safe
• Karl Rasmussen: Dodgers’ Decision to Rest Shohei Ohtani Is the Only Correct Option

 

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