RJ Hamster
The Strait Of Hormuz Just Reshaped the Fertilizer Market.

“CF Industries (CF) is the cleanest pure-play in the United States on the snap-back that’s coming.”
Nate Bear, Lead Technical Tactician, Monument Traders Alliance

There’s a stretch of water between Iran and the Arabian Peninsula about 90 miles long.
Most of the world’s traded ammonia and most of the world’s traded urea move through it on ships, with about 25-30% of all globally traded ammonia and about 35-40% of all globally traded urea passing through this single stretch of water. Urea is the most widely used nitrogen fertilizer on earth.
The Strait of Hormuz.
When the Iran war started, that strait stopped working the way it used to. Tankers that should be moving aren’t. Iranian export volumes through Hormuz have collapsed.
And every other major exporter has tightened the rope at the same time.
China has restricted urea exports through most of 2026. Russia has done the same on nitrogen, prioritizing domestic agriculture.
Egypt just slapped a $90-per-ton duty on nitrogen fertilizer exports. Every move pulls more supply out of the global market.
Meanwhile, India is about to consume what’s left.
India entered 2026 with low fertilizer inventories.
CF Industries said on its Q1 call that India’s urea imports could reach 10-12 million metric tons this year, roughly double the 2024 level. Some country, somewhere, has to ship them that fertilizer, and the Middle East can’t, China won’t, and Russia and Egypt are restricted.
That leaves the United States.
And CF Industries (CF) is the cleanest pure-play in the United States on the snap-back that’s coming.
CF is the largest North American nitrogen producer with cost-advantaged natural gas and the world’s largest ammonia production network. No potash drag, no phosphate margin compression, no diversified segment to dilute the math. 100% leverage to nitrogen prices.
The Q1 numbers prove the setup. CF reported earnings on May 7 with EPS of $3.98 against expectations of $2.50, a 59% beat. Revenue hit $1.99 billion, above the $1.8 billion expected, and adjusted EBITDA was $983 million.
The company has $1.7 billion remaining on its share buyback authorization, which they intend to use before expiration.
Yesterday, the stock ripped 5.91% to close at $130.39 on above-average volume after Scotiabank hiked its price target to $120. The stock blew through that target in a single session.
I don’t have a position yet.
But the chart’s doing exactly what I look for in a momentum setup.
SPONSORED
Did This AI Just Help Flag Trump’s Next Buy?
Over the past 7 years, this AI system has flashed ahead of 93.9% of the largest federal contracts.
Contracts that could’ve given regular investors the chance to turn a $1,000 stake into as much as $25,300… $38,500… and even $84,000 in 3 weeksor less.
And it just flashed again on a relatively unknown company that could be Trump’s next target.
Get the details before the news hits headlines.
CF is in a bullish stacked-EMA setup on the daily and weekly timeframes. The 8 EMA at $123.61 is above the 20 EMA at $123.09, both well above the 200 SMA at $95.32, and all three are sloping up. RSI sits at 57, which means there’s plenty of room to run before it overheats.
Underneath that price action, a daily squeeze is forming.
When a squeeze sets up on a name that’s already trending higher with stacked EMAs and a confirmed fundamental tailwind, that’s the cleanest version of my TPS framework: trend, pattern, squeeze.
I find that squeezes on stocks near highs tend to have explosive reactions.
Your Action Plan
CF is on the watchlist because the structure is exactly what I hunt for every week.
A company at the chokepoint of a global nitrogen supply crisis, beating earnings by 59%, with a $1.7 billion buyback authorization ready to deploy, and a chart showing me bullish stacked EMAs, fresh momentum, and a squeeze forming.
That’s the profile of a name that can run, and I’d rather have it on the list ready to go than try to catch up to it after the trigger fires.
If you want my actual trades and the positions I’m in,then check out Daily Profits Live.Want more content like this?
SPONSORED
ChatGPT’s TRILLION Dollar IPO (Announcement June 11?)
Most regular investors are locked out of Pre-IPO investing.
But for $100… You can get Pre-IPO Exposure to ChatGPT.
Monument Traders Alliance, LLC
You are receiving this email because you subscribed to Trade of the Day Wake-Up Watchlist.
To unsubscribe from Trade of the Day Wake-Up Watchlist, click here.
Questions? Check out our FAQs. Trying to reach us? Contact us here.
Please do not reply to this email as it goes to an unmonitored inbox.
To cancel by mail or for any other subscription issues, write us at:
Trade of the Day | 14 West Mount Vernon Place | Baltimore, MD 21201
North America: 800.507.1399 | International: +1.443.353.4977
Website | Privacy Policy
Keep the emails you value from falling into your spam folder. Whitelist Trade of the Day.
© 2026 Monument Traders Alliance, LLC | All Rights Reserved
Nothing published by Monument Traders Alliance should be considered personalized investment advice. Although our employees may answer your general customer service questions, they are not licensed under securities laws to address your particular investment situation. No communication by our employees to you should be deemed personalized investment advice. We allow the editors of our publications to recommend securities that they own themselves. However, our policy prohibits editors from exiting a personal trade while the recommendation to subscribers is open. In no circumstance may an editor sell a security before subscribers have a fair opportunity to exit. The length of time an editor must wait after subscribers have been advised to exit a play depends on the type of publication. All other employees and agents must wait 24 hours after publication before trading on a recommendation.
Any investments recommended by Monument Traders Alliance should be made only after consulting with your investment advisor and only after reviewing the prospectus or financial statements of the company.
Protected by copyright laws of the United States and international treaties. The information found on this website may only be used pursuant to the membership or subscription agreement and any reproduction, copying or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including on the world wide web), in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Monument Traders Alliance, LLC, 14 West Mount Vernon Place, Baltimore, MD 21201.
REF: 000142349377