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Should Investors Feel the “Rithm” in This 10% Yielder?
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Should Investors Feel the “Rithm” in This 10% Yielder?
Marc Lichtenfeld, Chief Income Strategist, The Oxford Club
Rithm Capital (NYSE: RITM) is a mortgage REIT that sports a generous 10% yield. Will that dividend eventually turn into a sour note, or can it continue to make sweet, sweet music for investors?
Rithm Capital invests in a variety of loans, including residential mortgages, commercial loans, and consumer loans.
The measure of cash flow that we use for mortgage REITs and other lenders is net interest income. It’s safe to say Rithm’s net interest income has not been in rhythm. It’s been all over the place.
Net interest income plummeted to $115 million in 2024 from $255 million the year prior. It popped back to $212 million last year. This year, it is forecast to drop to $163 million, and it is projected to slip further in 2027 to $151 million.
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Safety Net has a big issue with falling cash flow. To feel secure about the dividend, we need to see cash flow be flat or rising. Each time it falls, Safety Net lowers the safety rating of the dividend. Declining cash flow is considered a cardinal sin.View larger image
As if that inconsistency isn’t bad enough, the company pays out multiple times its net interest income in dividends.
Last year, Rithm paid shareholders $643 million in dividends, or 304% of its net interest income.
This year, with net interest income expected to drop 23%, the payout ratio is projected to climb to 405%, or four times the amount of net interest income that Wall Street anticipates.
That is not sustainable.
Those figures paint a bleak picture… but sometimes companies with a strong dividend-paying track record deserve the benefit of the doubt.
Let’s see whether that’s the case for Rithm.Finish Reading Here
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