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Rising Yields Aren’t Just a Fed Story Anymore

Markets are sending mixed signals as yields climb for reasons that go beyond the Fed. Sorting out which of these actually matter to your portfolio is the hard part. This report breaks down three of the biggest forces shaping markets right now.

Rising Yields Aren’t Just a Fed Story Anymore
Bond yields keep climbing, but the “why” has changed. Term premiums, fiscal concerns, resilient growth, and heavier AI-related debt issuance are now doing the driving, not just Fed rate-cut timing. Energy is still part of the picture too, but the pressure has shifted into refined products like gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel, with real implications for inflation expectations and long-term rates.

Summer Data Shows the Economy Still Has Momentum
Tariffs. Geopolitical risk. Oil price swings. Heat waves. Higher rates. On paper, that’s a lot to worry about. In practice, none of it has translated into a real eco-nomic slowdown. That resilience is quietly supporting equities even while head-lines stay cautious.

Can Earnings Keep Carrying the Market?
S&P 500 profits have grown for 12 straight quarters. As Q3 season kicks off, earnings are projected to rise +23% on +11.2% higher revenues, with positive revisions broadening across sectors. Tech is still a major driver, but it’s no longer carrying the market alone.

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