RJ Hamster
Rate Hikes Are Back on the Table
Delivering World-Class Financial Research Since 1999
April’s hot inflation report… Energy prices are taking off… Even ‘core’ inflation is posing a threat… We’re down 1 billion barrels of oil… How the world is bypassing the Strait of Hormuz… Trump goes to China…
A three-year high…
This morning, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released its consumer price index (“CPI”) report for the month of April. The CPI rose 3.8% year over year. Not only was that above Wall Street’s estimate of a 3.7% increase, it also marked the fastest annual increase in inflation since May 2023.
Since the CPI hit a nine-month low at 2.4% in January and stayed there in February, it has sharply increased for two straight months.
And energy is the main culprit…
In April, the energy component of the CPI soared 17.9% year over year. Under the “energy” umbrella, gasoline prices jumped 28.4% and fuel oil surged more than 54% from April 2025.
We’ve been covering the energy story in these pages…
The war in Iran has pushed up oil and gas prices. Oil has hit a four-year high, and the average price for gasoline in the U.S. is now above $4.50 per gallon.
With West Texas Intermediate crude at $101 per barrel today, oil prices are up more than 65% from the end of May 2025. And gas prices are up 42% from the end of May last year. In short, energy prices are continuing to increase inflation.
For May, the Cleveland Federal Reserve expects the CPI to hit 4.2%. That would mark a three-year high for inflation.
Even without energy, inflation is ticking up…
On a core basis, which strips out energy and food prices, the CPI rose 2.8% year over year in April – more than the 2.7% Wall Street expected. Like “headline” CPI, core CPI has ticked up for two straight months. It just hit a six-month high.
That’s important for where interest rates go from here…
As we noted last week, both the markets and members of the Federal Reserve are beginning to shift their focus away from the labor market and toward inflation.
Today, the Senate confirmed Kevin Warsh to the Fed’s Board of Governors. Now the Senate just has to vote on Warsh becoming the central bank’s chair. CNBC expects that vote to happen tomorrow.
But Warsh has his work cut out for him. As our colleague Greg Diamond shared in an update to his Ten Stock Tradersubscribers this morning…
If interest rates continue to rise, this should be a warning for the stock market, as bond traders will begin to price in the new Federal Reserve chair hiking rates rather than easing them.
That’s exactly what we saw today. The 10-year Treasury yield rose, matching its year-to-date high of 4.45%. The market is now pricing in a 35% chance that the Fed will raise rates this year instead of lowering them, versus only the 2% chance of 2026 rate hikes priced in a month ago.
That’s not what the market wants to see…
Stocks fell today, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index leading the way lower.
Meanwhile, the Strait of Hormuz is still closed…
It has been almost 11 weeks since the war in Iran started. Even with a “ceasefire” in place, traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains about 95% below normal levels. That means essentially 20% of the world’s typical oil supply is out of commission.
As Dan Ferris explained in his May 1 Digest, even if the strait were to open tomorrow, it could take up to six months to clear all the mines Iran has deployed in the area.
And Amin Nasser, CEO of Saudi Arabian energy giant Saudi Aramco, estimates it will take “several months” for the oil market to rebalance. That’s “the most optimistic scenario.”
As CNBC reported, Nasser told investors on an earnings call that tankers are deployed in the wrong places, and ships need to be rerouted once the strait is reopened.
If the blockade extends into June, Nasser says the oil market won’t return to normal until 2027.
For now, the world must get its oil elsewhere…
We’ve written before about how the Strait of Hormuz has disrupted energy markets. It also played a part in the United Arab Emirates (“UAE”) leaving the OPEC oil cartel.
From the April 29 Digest…
Now that it’s no longer a member of OPEC, the UAE could almost immediately increase its production by more than 1 million barrels per day and up to 1.8 million barrels by the end of the year.
That would lower oil prices in the long run… if that oil can hit the markets. But with the Strait of Hormuz closed, it can’t.
You see, unfortunately, the UAE is heavily reliant on the Strait of Hormuz. As we wrote:
About half of the UAE’s oil output and more than 90% of its natural gas exports pass through the strait.
Nasser estimates that the global market has lost more than 1 billion barrels of oil since the conflict began.
Still, demand for energy products hasn’t disappeared. As our colleague and Market Maven editor Gabe Marshank wrote in a special report…
The world doesn’t stop needing oil just because a shipping lane gets disrupted.
So countries and companies are looking elsewhere to secure energy supplies.
The U.S. is one of the places helping fill the gap. The Energy Information Administration expects U.S. natural gas exports to jump 12% this year to 17 billion cubic feet per day. And it’s expected to grow another 9% in 2027.
U.S. natural gas exports aren’t the only beneficiary, though. More from Gabe…
When Middle Eastern supply gets threatened, buyers immediately turn to the sources of oil that don’t require sailing through a contested waterway. These include offshore locations near the Gulf Coast, Brazil, and West Africa.
Demand for offshore oil, and the specialized vessels needed to drill and transport it, is soaring. Gabe continues…
Meanwhile, the biggest oil companies on Earth – like BP (BP), Chevron (CVX), ExxonMobil (XOM), and Shell (SHEL) – are all racing to lock up rig contracts. Some of them are signing deals years in advance, because they know the math as well as anyone.
This isn’t the only spot in the energy sector where Gabe sees opportunity. With AI demanding more power and pushing prices higher (electricity prices were up 6% year over year in April’s CPI report), Gabe believes we’re headed for a full-blown power crisis.
That’s why he filmed a free presentation highlighting the companies he believes will thrive during the energy bottleneck created by AI and the Strait of Hormuz closure.
If you haven’t already, we urge you to watch a replay of Gabe’s presentation here. And Stansberry Alliance members and Gabe’s Market Maven subscribers can check out his latest research right here.
The next geopolitical catalyst…
Earlier today, President Donald Trump traveled to China for a state visit with Chinese President Xi Jinping.
Tensions between the U.S. and China, namely over tariffs, have taken a backseat with the ongoing conflict in Iran. But back in April 2025, strong tariff rhetoric pushed the market into a correction. And while the tariff rate has come down, there is still a 10% baseline tariff on all imports from China.
Trump briefly discussed tariffs last month in a phone interview with CNBC. As we wrote in the April 21 Digest, the conversation mostly revolved around the Supreme Court’s decision to “undo” tariffs and leave the U.S. government on the hook for $165 billion in tariff refunds. The first batch of tariff refunds has begun to roll out.
We don’t expect any new tariff announcements during this week’s trip. But the story isn’t over. Any news could bring the market’s eyes back to this important geopolitical story. So folks should continue to prepare for volatility in their portfolios.
Recommended Links:
‘I Made TWO $100 Million Trades. Now, Lightning Is Striking for a Third Time.’
Gabe Marshank made a stunning $100 million in profits (in a single trade) for SAC Capital. Then, at Greenlight Capital, he did it again. Both times, it was in the same overlooked corner of the market. And now, he says the identical setup is lining up again. If anything, this time it’s even BIGGER than the other two. And for the first time in his career, he’s detailing the trade publicly. While this urgent broadcast is still online… unlock Gabe Marshank’s “third $100 million trade” now.
White House Backs America’s New ‘Shadow Grid’
President Donald Trump has declared a national energy emergency as AI companies scramble for more electricity. Now, tech giants are quietly building private energy grids across America – sparking the next trillion-dollar boom. Click here to learn how to invest in this “shadow grid” alongside backers like Elon Musk and Sam Altman.
New 52-week highs (as of 5/11/26): ABB (ABBNY), Altius Minerals (ALS.TO), Applied Materials (AMAT), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Air Products and Chemicals (APD), BHP (BHP), CBOE Global Markets (CBOE), Ciena (CIEN), Cisco Systems (CSCO), Datadog (DDOG), Healthpeak Properties (DOC), EnerSys (ENS), iShares MSCI South Korea Fund (EWY), Exelixis (EXEL), FirstCash (FCFS), iShares Convertible Bond Fund (ICVT), Intel (INTC), KraneShares Bosera MSCI China A 50 Connect Index Fund (KBA), KraneShares Global Humanoid Robotics and Physical AI Index Fund (KOID), Lumentum (LITE), Nvidia (NVDA), Invesco WilderHill Clean Energy Fund (PBW), ProShares Ultra Technology (ROM), USCF SummerHaven Dynamic Commodity Strategy No K-1 Fund (SDCI), Solstice Advanced Materials (SOLS), ProShares Ultra S&P 500 (SSO), Texas Instruments (TXN), UnitedHealth (UNH), and State Street SPDR S&P Semiconductor Fund (XSD).
In today’s mailbag, feedback on Sunday’s Masters Series essay from Stansberry Research senior analyst Gabe Marshank… and thoughts on yesterday’s Digest, which discussed the latest in the Iran war… Do you have a comment or question? As always, e-mail us at feedback@stansberryresearch.com.
“I enjoyed Gabe’s ‘honest’ column. It should remind everyone how important character is. I was once hired by Merrill under similar circumstances.” – Subscriber Alan F.
“Wow. What a state the world is in today. I believe Trump is on the right path to peace… Trump needs to wait before taking further action [on Iran] until after his visit to Beijing. He has no choice. I hope all goes well there… We’ll see how it all ends up. Be patient with [the] administration. Hope for the world to be a better place and just roll with Mr. Market as it plays on.” – Subscriber Tim L.
All the best,
Nick Koziol
Baltimore, Maryland
May 12, 2026
Stansberry Research Top 10 Open Recommendations
Top 10 highest-returning open stock positions across all Stansberry Research portfolios. Returns represent the total return from the initial recommendation.InvestmentBuy DateReturnPublicationMSFT
Microsoft11/11/101,370.2%Retirement MillionaireMSFT
Microsoft02/10/121,332.2%Stansberry’s Investment AdvisoryCIEN
Ciena10/20/22906.0%Stansberry Innovations ReportGOOGL
Alphabet12/15/16857.3%Retirement MillionaireADP
Automatic Data Processing10/09/08818.3%Extreme ValueBRK.B
Berkshire Hathaway04/01/09771.7%Retirement MillionaireALS-T
Altius Minerals03/26/09726.6%Extreme ValueSII
Sprott01/11/18671.9%Extreme ValueLITE
Lumentum04/15/21657.7%Stansberry Innovations ReportWRB
W.R. Berkley03/15/12617.1%Stansberry’s Investment Advisory
Please note: Securities appearing in the Top 10 are not necessarily recommended buys at current prices. The list reflects the best-performing positions currently in the model portfolio of any Stansberry Research publication. The buy date reflects when the editor recommended the investment in the listed publication, and the return shows its performance since that date. To learn if a security is still a recommended buy today, you must be a subscriber to that publication and refer to the most recent portfolio.
Top 10 Totals3Extreme ValueFerris3Retirement MillionaireDoc2Stansberry Innovations ReportEngel2Stansberry’s Investment AdvisoryPorter
Top 5 Crypto Capital Open Recommendations
Top 5 highest-returning open positions in the Crypto Capital model portfolioInvestmentBuy DateReturnPublicationBTC/USD
Bitcoin11/27/182,074.5%Crypto CapitalWSTETH/USD
Wrapped Staked Ethereum12/07/181,900.5%Crypto CapitalONE/USD
Harmony12/16/191,012.3%Crypto CapitalPOL/USD
Polygon02/26/21644.2%Crypto CapitalQRL/USD
Quantum Resistant Ledger01/19/21403.6%Crypto Capital
Please note: Securities appearing in the Top 5 are not necessarily recommended buys at current prices. The list reflects the best-performing positions currently in the Crypto Capital model portfolio. The buy date reflects when the recommendation was made, and the return shows its performance since that date. To learn if it’s still a recommended buy today, you must be a subscriber and refer to the most recent portfolio.
Stansberry Research Hall of Fame
Top 10 all-time, highest-returning closed positions across all Stansberry portfoliosInvestmentDurationGainPublicationNvidia (NVDA)^*5.96 years1,466%Venture Tech.Microsoft (MSFT)^12.74 years1,185%Retirement MillionaireInovio Pharma. (INO)^1.01 years1,139%Venture Tech.Rocket Lab (RKLB)^2.35 years1,034%Venture Tech.Seabridge Gold (SA)^4.20 years995%Sjug Conf.Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-B)^16.13 years800%Retirement MillionaireIntellia Therapeutics (NTLA)1.95 years775%Amer. MoonshotsRite Aid 8.5% bond4.97 years773%True IncomePNC Warrants (PNC-WS)6.16 years706%True Wealth SystemsMaxar Technologies (MAXR)^1.90 years691%Venture Tech.
^ These gains occurred with a partial position in the respective stocks.
* Editor Dave Lashmet closed the first leg of this Nvidia position in November 2016 for a gain of about 108%. Then, he closed the second leg in July 2020 for a 777% return. And finally, in May 2022, he booked a 1,466% return on the final leg. Subscribers who followed his advice on Nvidia could’ve recorded a total weighted average gain of more than 600%.
Stansberry Research Crypto Hall of Fame
Top 5 highest-returning closed positions in the Crypto Capital model portfolioInvestmentDurationGainAnalystBand Protocol (BAND)0.31 years1,169%Crypto CapitalTerra (LUNA)0.41 years1,166%Crypto CapitalPolymesh (POLYX)3.84 years1,157%Crypto CapitalFrontier (FRONT)0.09 years979%Crypto CapitalBinance Coin (BNB)1.78 years963%Crypto Capital
You have received this e-mail as part of your subscription to Stansberry Digest. If you no longer want to receive e-mails from Stansberry Digest click here.
Published by Stansberry Research.
You’re receiving this e-mail at pahovis@aol.com. Stansberry Research welcomes comments or suggestions at feedback@stansberryresearch.com. This address is for feedback only. For questions about your account or to speak with customer service, call 888-261-2693 (U.S.) or 443-839-0986 (international) Monday-Friday, 9 a.m.-5 p.m. Eastern time. Or e-mail info@stansberryresearch.com. Please note: The law prohibits us from giving personalized financial advice.
© 2026 Stansberry Research. All rights reserved. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution, in whole or in part, is prohibited without written permission from Stansberry Research, 1125 N Charles St, Baltimore, MD 21201 or stansberryresearch.com.
Any brokers mentioned constitute a partial list of available brokers and is for your information only. Stansberry Research does not recommend or endorse any brokers, dealers, or investment advisors.
Stansberry Research forbids its writers from having a financial interest in any security they recommend to our subscribers. All employees of Stansberry Research (and affiliated companies) must wait 24 hours after an investment recommendation is published online – or 72 hours after a direct mail publication is sent – before acting on that recommendation.
This work is based on SEC filings, current events, interviews, corporate press releases, and what we’ve learned as financial journalists. It may contain errors, and you shouldn’t make any investment decision based solely on what you read here. It’s your money and your responsibility.
