RJ Hamster
Markets Are “Calm” About Oil – That Could Be…
April 22, 2026
Markets Are “Calm” About Oil – That Could Be a Mistake
Featured Article: Nuclear just had one of those days
Dear Reader,
Oil just jumped above $100.
Ships are being seized.
And a key global oil route is under pressure.
Yet markets are acting like this will pass quickly.
That disconnect is where opportunity shows up.
Nearly 20% of global oil supply flows through the Strait of Hormuz.
Right now, that flow is anything but certain.
Even small disruptions can ripple through the entire market.
We’re already seeing it in rising prices.
But instead of trying to predict oil…
Some investors are focusing on the infrastructure behind it.
Pipelines. Transport. Distribution.
The “toll roads” of energy.
Because no matter where oil prices go…
It still has to move.
And every time it does, these assets generate cash flow.
Marc Lichtenfeld recently explained why this setup can be especially powerful right now.
One such partnership yields around 6.8% – far above the S&P 500 – and has raised payouts for decades.
It’s not about guessing oil’s next move…
It’s about getting paid while it moves.
Good investing,
Rachel Gearhart
Publisher, The Oxford Club
FEATURED ARTICLE
Nuclear just had one of those days
Nuclear just had one of those days where it stops being a side conversation and moves into the center of the market.
NuScale Power (SMR) jumped more than 16% in a single session, and it wasn’t driven by earnings. It was driven by attention… and a very large number being attached to the future.
A projected $10 trillion global nuclear buildouttied to AI-driven power demand.
That’s not a small theme.
Start with the demand side.
Data centers are expected to consume close to 900–1,000 terawatt-hours (TWh) of electricity annually by 2030, up from roughly 400–450 TWh today. That’s more than doubling in less than a decade.
AI workloads are a big part of that. Training large models can require 10–50 gigawatt-hours (GWh) per run, and once deployed, those systems draw continuous power for inference.
This isn’t peak demand.
It’s baseline demand.
That distinction matters.
Because baseline demand requires reliable power.
Nuclear operates at 90%+ capacity factors, meaning plants run nearly full-time. Compare that to:
- wind: ~30–40%
- solar: ~20–25%
When infrastructure needs to run 24/7, intermittency becomes a constraint.
That’s where nuclear fits.
Now look at supply.
Globally, there are about 440 nuclear reactors in operation, producing roughly 10% of electricity. Another 60+ reactors are under construction, but that pace isn’t enough to meet projected demand growth on its own.
To close the gap, estimates are calling for hundreds of new reactors over the next two decades.
That’s where the $10 trillion figure comes from.
Small modular reactors are supposed to accelerate that process.
Instead of building multi-billion-dollar, decade-long projects, SMRs aim to deliver:
- smaller units
- faster construction timelines
- lower upfront capital requirements
In theory, that reduces risk and speeds up deployment.
But here’s where it gets more complicated.
NuScale, despite today’s move, is still a pre-scale business.
Revenue remains limited relative to the size of its ambitions, and the company is dependent on:
- project approvals
- government support
- long-term customer contracts
SMRs are not plug-and-play solutions yet.
They still face:
- regulatory approval cycles
- cost uncertainty
- supply chain constraints
Slight tangent, but it matters.
Nuclear demand is easy to forecast.
Nuclear execution is not.
That gap is where volatility comes from.
Back to the stock.
A 16% move in a single session tells you positioning is shifting quickly. Capital is starting to price the possibility that SMRs become a meaningful part of the future energy mix.
But it’s also pulling forward expectations.
Right now, investors are effectively betting on three things happening together:
- AI power demand continues to accelerate
- nuclear receives sustained policy support
- SMR technology scales commercially within a reasonable timeframe
Each of those individually is plausible.
Together, they’re less certain.
That doesn’t make the theme wrong.
It just makes the path uneven.
From a broader perspective, nuclear is being reconsidered for a reason.
Utilities are planning $150–200 billion in annual grid and capacity investments, and large tech companies are actively securing long-term power agreements to support data center expansion.
Reliable baseload power is becoming a constraint.
Nuclear addresses that constraint.
But it doesn’t do it overnight.
So where does that leave this trade?
This isn’t about whether nuclear demand exists.
It does.
It’s about how quickly that demand converts into revenue for companies like NuScale.
Because at current levels, stocks tied to this theme are not being priced on current earnings.
They’re being priced on future deployment.
And future deployment…
takes time.
I’d watch how these names behave after the initial surge.
Not just direction…
but whether they can hold gains without new catalysts.
Because in early-stage industries like this…
momentum can arrive quickly.
Sustainability takes longer.
This content is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Investing involves risk.
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