RJ Hamster
Goodbye Shoes, Hello
Delivering World-Class Financial Research Since 1999
We’re ‘very close’ to the end of the Iran conflict… A shoemaker goes all in on AI… Don’t fall for the pivot… AI investment is still thriving… But the consumer isn’t… More ‘buy now, pay later’ red flags… There are still quality AI investments out there…
The end is in sight (maybe)…
In an interview that aired on Fox Business this morning, President Donald Trump said the Iran war is “close to over”… and that Iran wants to make a deal “very badly.”
Trump’s interview comes on the heels of news that another round of peace talks is reportedly happening before the ceasefire deadline next week.
As we reported yesterday, Trump said those talks could happen soon.
Of course, these are just headlines and speculation. But the market is optimistic that a deal will come together. The major U.S. stock indexes continued their march higher today, with both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq hitting new all-time highs.
Outside of Iran, bank earnings also continued to roll out… with both Bank of America (BAC) and Morgan Stanley (MS) beating estimates and leading the financial sector higher.
The latest in the AI boom…
This morning, Allbirds (BIRD) – a shoe company specializing in wool athletic shoes – announced that it’s pivoting to AI.
The firm is selling its Allbirds brand and footwear assets and rebranding as “NewBird AI” to focus on AI computing. From the company’s press release…
The Company will initially seek to acquire high-performance, low-latency AI compute hardware and provide access under long-term lease arrangements, meeting customer demand that spot markets and hyperscalers are unable to reliably service.
Put simply, Allbirds wants to get in on the AI frenzy by providing computing power to companies that can’t get any space in existing (or newly built) data centers.
The company’s shares surged nearly 600% on the news, taking its market cap from about $22 million to $157 million.
But the move brings back bad memories of previous bubbles. As our colleague Dan Ferris explained in the September 12 Digest, companies change directions like this during booms to take advantage of hype from investors.
From Dan…
[In] the final run-up of the bubble, folks were investing in any company whose name ended in “.com.” These IPOs would be a roaring success, and folks who owned shares would enjoy a substantial rise in market value… until it all fell apart after the Nasdaq Composite Index peaked in March 2000.
And it wasn’t just the dot-com bubble… The same thing happened during the first bitcoin bubble in 2017. More from Dan…
Perhaps you remember beverage company Long Island Iced Tea changing its name to Long Blockchain – resulting in a one-day share price gain of more than 200%. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission eventually delisted the company’s stock, saying it was misleading investors.
As Dan highlighted, a 2019 paper showed that companies that put blockchain in their name had abnormally higher returns for about two months… but then negative returns over five months.
The real test for Allbirds will be if it can follow through on its AI ambitions. But for now, there are two simple takeaways from this news…
First, the AI spending boom is still thriving…
Earlier today, semiconductor equipment maker ASML (ASML) reported its latest quarterly earnings. Sales jumped 13% in the first three months of the year compared with the same period a year ago. And it raised its full-year sales outlook to between €36 billion and €40 billion, which is a 16% increase from 2025.
ASML is a great bellwether for the chip industry. It has a near monopoly in the “lithography” machines that go into making the most complex semiconductors. So if its business is thriving, chip companies are spending. Right now, AI is the driver behind that spending. As ASML CEO Christophe Fouquet said in the company’s quarterly release…
The semiconductor industry’s growth outlook continues to solidify, driven by ongoing AI-related infrastructure investments. Demand for chips is outpacing supply.
To take advantage of that heavy demand, chip companies are trying to quickly expand their manufacturing capacity. And they’re turning to ASML.
ASML’s earnings release was the first of the AI-related reports we’ll get over the next couple of weeks. The “hyperscalers” Alphabet (GOOGL), Microsoft (MSFT), and Meta Platforms (META) will report their earnings in about two weeks.
But based off of ASML’s update, spending isn’t slowing down in the AI space.
However, the consumer is in bad shape…
On Friday, the University of Michigan released its latest Consumer Sentiment survey. Sentiment fell to 47.6 this month, surpassing the lows from the 2008 financial crisis, the 2022 bear market, and even the COVID-19 pandemic.
And 54% of respondents said their financial conditions are worse today than they were a year ago because of high prices. That’s a record high for the survey, even higher than 2022 when inflation was running above 9%.
Folks are turning to loans just to survive…
According to a survey from LendingTree, 54% of respondents said they couldn’t make ends meet without taking out buy now, pay later (“BNPL”) loans.
And they’re using these loans for more than just discretionary purchases like apparel and electronics (though those are still the two largest spending categories).
Nearly 30% of respondents have used a BNPL loan to buy groceries – up from 25% last year and 14% in 2024. And 13% of folks said they’ve used BNPL loans to pay their rent. And more than 70% of Gen Z and millennial respondents said they’d consider using BNPL loans for rent.
BNPL giant Affirm (AFRM) and rent-payment platform Esusu have even partnered to allow users to split their rent payments into two payments instead of once a month – if users pay for a plus or premium Esusu subscription (which starts at $35 per month).
But just like with credit-card and auto debt, folks are falling behind on BNPL. Nearly half of LendingTree’s survey respondents said they’ve missed a payment on a BNPL loan – up from 41% last year and 34% in 2024.
It’s a worrying sign when folks can’t pay for the essentials like groceries or rent without having to take out a loan. If consumers can barely cover necessities, they’re going to pull back on other spending. And since consumers make up two-thirds of all economic activity, that could grind the economy to a halt.
Putting it all together…
Allbirds has clearly been suffering from consumers pulling back. Sales have fallen for three straight years since 2022. And before the AI pivot, the stock was down more than 99% from its 2021 IPO price.
So it’s capitalizing on the AI boom. If history is any guide, we won’t look back on Allbirds’ pivot as a generational buying opportunity. There’s a much better chance it ends up being a sign of “peak hype” in the AI cycle.
But that’s not to say that there’s no place for AI in your portfolio. As Dan concluded in the September Digest…
As long as you hold a diversified portfolio, avoid the convenient pivot stocks… and don’t load your entire portfolio with every AI-related stock you can find, you can participate in the massive new technology waves like AI and cryptocurrencies while avoiding big risks.
In short, there are plenty of high-quality businesses with AI exposure that you can add to your portfolio while avoiding “pivot stocks.”
Our Dr. David “Doc” Eifrig just recommended a “beaten-down stock” with “hidden AI upside” in this month’s Retirement Millionaire issue. Retirement Millionaire subscribers and Stansberry Alliance members can read the April issue here.
Recommended Links:
April 30 – Mass Sell-Off Starts
Thirty-year Wall Street veteran Joel Litman is warning that the top four money managers – BlackRock, Vanguard, Fidelity, and State Street – are set to start liquidating major positions starting April 30. It’s because of a little-known financial framework that mandates these money managers MUST sell. This happens every year, like clockwork. Joel’s analysis shows it sent dozens of stocks spiraling last year… but also gave you the chance to double your money 21 times. Get up to speed here before Wall Street starts selling.
You’ll wait in line for hours at the gas station… and pay $10 a gallon. Whole aisles at the grocery store will be empty. There’ll be violent protests on the streets… The National Guard will be deployed… And there’ll be widespread panic in the stock market. That’s the newest warning from our longest-tenured analyst at Stansberry Research. And according to him, that’s just the start… See how to prepare now.
New 52-week highs (as of 4/14/26): BWX Technologies (BWXT), Deluxe (DLX), Emcor (EME), EnerSys (ENS), Hilton Worldwide (HLT), Hubbell (HUBB), iShares Convertible Bond Fund (ICVT), KraneShares Bosera MSCI China A 50 Connect Index Fund (KBA), Twist Bioscience (TWST), Vale (VALE), and State Street SPDR S&P Semiconductor Fund (XSD).
“Hey Corey, Why hasn’t anyone built a pipeline to circumvent the Strait of Hormuz?” – Subscriber Ric B.
Corey McLaughlin comment: Well, the short answer is it’s complicated. The longer answer requires some backstory.
Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (“UAE”) already have pipelines designed to avoid the Strait of Hormuz. They have the capacity to move approximately 7 million to 9 million combined barrels of oil per day, which is less than half of the Strait of Hormuz’s 20 million barrels-per-day rate… But it is something.
However, even at full capacity, these pipelines aren’t perfect. The ships they service travel into potential geopolitical choke points on each end of the Red Sea, especially in the south, where the Houthis in Yemen have proved they’re willing to attack ships on behalf of Iran.
And in the Middle East, there’s no getting away from geopolitical trouble… and a long, stationary pipeline is a potentially easy target for enemies. Iran attacked Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline shortly after the U.S. “ceasefire” was announced last week.
But, to your question, let’s say Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Oman wanted to build a new North-South pipeline that can avoid the current situation and allow oil-carrying ships safe travel to and from Asia and around Africa.
It would take years and probably tens of billions of dollars to build the infrastructure across the harsh, remote Saudi desert (with 100-foot-plus sand dunes) dubbed the Empty Quarter, as well as new export capacity on the Omani coast.
Plus, as we mentioned, pipelines that partially avoid the Strait of Hormuz already exist, so there would be some overlap. And shipping by established water routes is usually cheaper and more flexible. (Presuming the Persian Gulf isn’t essentially shut down for business because of war.) And there would be security and other considerations.
So while building a new pipeline to avoid today’s supply disruptions is a good thought, it’s not simple. I’d bet that Saudi Arabia and the UAE bolstering their existing infrastructure is more likely, short of the most affordable and effective yet elusive answer… for all sides to stop blocking energy supplies during the war.
All the best,
Nick Koziol
Baltimore, Maryland
April 15, 2026
Stansberry Research Top 10 Open Recommendations
Top 10 highest-returning open stock positions across all Stansberry Research portfolios. Returns represent the total return from the initial recommendation.InvestmentBuy DateReturnPublicationMSFT
Microsoft11/11/101,333.5%Retirement MillionaireMSFT
Microsoft02/10/121,268.6%Stansberry’s Investment AdvisoryBRK.B
Berkshire Hathaway04/01/09769.9%Retirement MillionaireCIEN
Ciena10/20/22766.2%Stansberry Innovations ReportADP
Automatic Data Processing10/09/08764.0%Extreme ValueGOOGL
Alphabet12/15/16720.6%Retirement MillionaireSII
Sprott01/11/18701.9%Extreme ValueALS-T
Altius Minerals03/26/09676.2%Extreme ValueWRB
W.R. Berkley03/15/12613.1%Stansberry’s Investment AdvisoryLITE
Lumentum04/15/21550.1%Stansberry Innovations Report
Please note: Securities appearing in the Top 10 are not necessarily recommended buys at current prices. The list reflects the best-performing positions currently in the model portfolio of any Stansberry Research publication. The buy date reflects when the editor recommended the investment in the listed publication, and the return shows its performance since that date. To learn if a security is still a recommended buy today, you must be a subscriber to that publication and refer to the most recent portfolio.
Top 10 Totals3Extreme ValueFerris3Retirement MillionaireDoc2Stansberry Innovations ReportEngel2Stansberry’s Investment AdvisoryPorter
Top 5 Crypto Capital Open Recommendations
Top 5 highest-returning open positions in the Crypto Capitalmodel portfolioInvestmentBuy DateReturnPublicationWSTETH/USD
Wrapped Staked Ethereum12/07/181,882.9%Crypto CapitalBTC/USD
Bitcoin11/27/181,873.8%Crypto CapitalONE/USD
Harmony12/16/191,006.8%Crypto CapitalPOL/USD
Polygon02/26/21638.6%Crypto CapitalQRL/USD
Quantum Resistant Ledger01/19/21556.2%Crypto Capital
Please note: Securities appearing in the Top 5 are not necessarily recommended buys at current prices. The list reflects the best-performing positions currently in the Crypto Capital model portfolio. The buy date reflects when the recommendation was made, and the return shows its performance since that date. To learn if it’s still a recommended buy today, you must be a subscriber and refer to the most recent portfolio.
Stansberry Research Hall of Fame
Top 10 all-time, highest-returning closed positions across all Stansberry portfoliosInvestmentDurationGainPublicationNvidia (NVDA)^*5.96 years1,466%Venture Tech.Microsoft (MSFT)^12.74 years1,185%Retirement MillionaireInovio Pharma. (INO)^1.01 years1,139%Venture Tech.Rocket Lab (RKLB)^2.35 years1,034%Venture Tech.Seabridge Gold (SA)^4.20 years995%Sjug Conf.Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-B)^16.13 years800%Retirement MillionaireIntellia Therapeutics (NTLA)1.95 years775%Amer. MoonshotsRite Aid 8.5% bond4.97 years773%True IncomePNC Warrants (PNC-WS)6.16 years706%True Wealth SystemsMaxar Technologies (MAXR)^1.90 years691%Venture Tech.
^ These gains occurred with a partial position in the respective stocks.
* Editor Dave Lashmet closed the first leg of this Nvidia position in November 2016 for a gain of about 108%. Then, he closed the second leg in July 2020 for a 777% return. And finally, in May 2022, he booked a 1,466% return on the final leg. Subscribers who followed his advice on Nvidia could’ve recorded a total weighted average gain of more than 600%.
Stansberry Research Crypto Hall of Fame
Top 5 highest-returning closed positions in the Crypto Capital model portfolioInvestmentDurationGainAnalystBand Protocol (BAND)0.31 years1,169%Crypto CapitalTerra (LUNA)0.41 years1,166%Crypto CapitalPolymesh (POLYX)3.84 years1,157%Crypto CapitalFrontier (FRONT)0.09 years979%Crypto CapitalBinance Coin (BNB)1.78 years963%Crypto Capital
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