RJ Hamster
Don’t Buy SpaceX at IPO
“My takeaway: Follow the 6-month rule.”
Bryan Bottarelli, Co-Founder, Monument Traders Alliance
Dear Reader,
This week’s Barron’s cover story highlighted a point that Karim and I made during a recent Monument Trend Advisory livestream…
If you aren’t a member, you didn’t catch it… You also didn’t catch the winner in Modine (MOD) we closed this morning… nor the 170% winner we cashed in Navitas (NVTS) last week.
The takeaway is this:
“Think twice before chasing the SpaceX IPO.”
Let me walk you through some important statistics to know going into this latest round of mega-IPOs.
It’s important to have a clear game plan on how to approach them.
To my eye, there’s a big opportunity for investors to get fleeced.
Here’s how to avoid being one of them.
At the expected IPO price range, SpaceX’s Day 1 value will be greater than American Express (AXP), Qualcomm (QCOM), and PepsiCo (PEP)… combined.
Wow.
When Facebook (META) went public in 2012, it set the record for the most highly valued U.S. company at the time of its IPO.
Meta’s IPO valued it around $117 billion… less than 10% of what SpaceX is expected to trade for the day it goes public.
In fact, SpaceX could be valued at 20x that size, making it larger than Meta is today.
This is shocking. SpaceX crossed the $1 billion valuation threshold in December of 2012, and it’s currently up 1,000% from that time. Of course, no average investor could’ve gotten in at those levels.
If SpaceX trades at the expected range on Day 1, it would carry a valuation of 93x trailing sales.
In the first quarter of 2026, the company reported $1.9 billion in operating losses, driven by a $2.5 billion loss in their AI segment.
So, while many are infatuated with SpaceX, calling it a generational IPO story, we’re still talking about an unprofitable company at a crazy-high valuation.
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What We Can Learn From Past IPOs
A total of 36 U.S. companies have gone public with a market cap of $15 billion or more. History shows that only nine of those 36 have beaten the S&P 500, while only 17 have generated a positive return.
My takeaway: Follow the 6-month rule.
Investors who bought META on the first day of trading are currently up 1,474%.
That’s an awesome return, don’t get me wrong… but those who waited and bought META six months after it went public are up 2,454%.
Given all these historical facts, there might be a time to buy SpaceX… but it ain’t right away.
Yes, I admit, it will very likely blast higher on the first day of trading. However, history shows that the ideal move is to wait six months, let the euphoria die down, and then make your entry once the valuation settles into a more reasonable range.
This is the pattern I’ll be following inside The War Room.
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TESTIMONIAL TUESDAY
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– MRandall, The War Room Member
INSIGHTS YOU MAY HAVE MISSED
Don’t Buy SpaceX at IPO
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