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→ AI stock correction could be the tip of the iceberg
(From Chaikin Analytics)

Spring is about to be sprung, and along with it come several hot buys for traders and investors. The questions to be answered include what drives the market, the catalysts at hand, and how high the stock may go.
In all cases, bull case scenarios suggest modest to moderate triple-digit gains are possible over time. The question for investors and traders alike is which stocks fit the portfolio and how many shares to buy.
The Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ: AMD)market is supported by end-market normalization in critical segments. The market is driven by AI and data centers, which are accelerating revenue growth to record levels even as revenue itself sets records.
The catalyst in 2025 is the combination of wicked-hot GPU and CPU demand tied to AI and datacenter build-outs, and the upcoming launch of MI450 products and Helios rack-scale solutions. The critical component is rack-scale solutions, which will elevate AMD to NVIDIA’s (NASDAQ: NVDA) level and enable it to effectively serve hyperscaler needs.
In February, analysts revised their outlook for share prices by issuing upgrades and adjusting price targets. They reaffirmed and bolstered the Moderate Buy rating, highlighting a 45% potential upside from key support levels at the consensus. The high-end range, which is likely to be reached by year’s end, has this stock rising by approximately 90%. Assuming that upcoming results are as robust as industry trends suggest, the consensus and high-end targets are also likely to move higher by year’s end.

Micron Technology’s (NASDAQ: MU) market is supported by the same AI trends as Advanced Micro Devices’. The difference is that MU’s price action is tied to its position as a high-bandwidth memory (HBM) provider, which is critical to AI applications globally.
The story in late February is that price action is breaking out of a consolidation, signalling the continuation of the trend. This is significant because the signal marks the halfway point of this rally, and it’s already advanced approximately $200, or 100%, since the last market correction. In this scenario, MU stock price will advance into the $600 to $800 range by year’s end, potentially before mid-year.
MU’s consensus stock price target lags the actionas of month-end but still provides robust support due to the trend. Those include firming coverage, a nearly-200% trailing 12-month increase in the consensus, and a high-end pointing to $500.

Amprius Technologies (NYSE: AMPX) is well-positioned as a disruptive force in the batterymarket. Its silicon anode design provides superior performance and energy density, critical for range and payload capacity.
The story in February is that the upcoming March earnings release will be a catalyst, likely affirming the company’s hyper-growth trajectory. As it stands, analysts forecast a high-double to low-triple-digit revenue growth pace over the next eight quarters, with profits by the end of 2027.
The stock price action has AMPX set up to channel up to the top of its range, potentially topping the $15 mark before mid-year. Consensus forecasts a move above $16.50, which would be sufficient for 75% upside relative to the critical support level.

e.l.f. Beauty (NYSE: ELF) is in the midst of a turnaround driven by outperformance, operational excellence, market share gains, and a robust growth outlook. The stock price confirmed its bottom in February, following the earnings release, and indicates a buyable bottom is in place. The report included an aggressive 2026 guide, with revenue and earnings growth well-above expectations at the low end of the range.
The analysts’ response was mixed, including a few price target reductions, but the takeaway is bullish. The target changes narrow the range around consensus, which forecasts a nearly 30% upside.
A 30% upside puts this market above critical moving averages, set up to advance as the year progresses. Longer term, valuation metrics suggest this stock can rise by 100% over the next few years as its earnings grow in line with the outlook.

Aeluma (NASDAQ: ALMU) is the riskiest play in this list, as it is still a pre-revenue company. However, it is on track to commercialize its technology by year’s end, and there is high demand for the product.
What is the product? Highly efficient photonic and manufacturing processes for compound semiconductors. Its products and techniques are critical to AI, as photonics enables higher-speed, lower-latency, high-bandwidth data transmission, which is critical to the most advanced AI applications.

Analysts rate it as a Hold and see it advancing by 65% at the consensus. Catalysts this year include a string of new U.S. government contracts and the expectation that follow-on contracts will emerge as the year progresses. A move to the consensus is sufficient to match the all-time high, putting this market on track to continue advancing in the years ahead.

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After collapsing nearly 30% between the first week of January and the first week of February, tech giant Qualcomm Inc (NASDAQ: QCOM) is now trading around $145. It’s been a rough start to the year for investors, with that selloff effectively dragging the stock back to 2020 levels.
Though the stock was already under pressure, the primary catalyst for the selloff was the company’s weak forward guidance in its first report of the year.
That disappointment accelerated selling pressure in what has long been a frustrating stock for investors to hold, despite its consistent ability to top earnings and revenue expectations.
Off the back of that selloff, Qualcomm’s relative strength index (RSI) reading was pushed toward multi-year lows, sentiment all but collapsed, and many analysts began throwing in the towel.
For a company operating in such a critical part of the semiconductor ecosystem, the capitulation felt definitive. Yet over the past fortnight, something has shifted that’s making investors question whether the worst of the selling is already behind them. Let’s take a closer look.
In mid-February, Qualcomm’s moving average convergence/divergence indicator (MACD) registered a bullish crossover, and it did so while still deeply in negative territory on the indicator. That last detail is crucial, as a bullish MACD crossover above the zero line can simply confirm ongoing strength.
A crossover from below zero, however, tends to suggest that downside momentum has reached an extreme and is beginning to unwind. In other words, it signals the early stages of a potential reversal rather than just continuation.
With the bears firmly in control throughout January and early February, every bounce attempt was quickly sold into, and momentum remained decisively negative. Now, a string of consecutive green sessions suggests short-term control may be starting to tilt back toward the bulls, especially when you factor in the MACD’s bullish crossover.
The last time Qualcomm printed a similar bullish MACD crossover from deep below zero was last April, after the stock had also fallen roughly 30%. That signal marked the low and was followed by a multi-month rally of 70%. For investors who love a comeback story, it’s a compelling setup.
Importantly, the recent signal is not happening in isolation. Price action is also beginning to cooperate. The bears have been unable to go below the immediate post-earnings low they set, despite all the doom-and-gloom from analysts at the time. Instead, the stock has decidedly turned northward. Now, this doesn’t mean the downtrend is officially broken, but it does mean the relentless pressure has eased.
For a stock that gave up two years of gains in just a matter of weeks, stabilization alone is notable. When a deeply oversold name begins to rally in the wake of bad news rather than sell off further, it often signals that the worst-case scenario is already priced in.
The technical improvement is now being accompanied by a subtle change in tone from Wall Street. Earlier this year, many analysts downgraded Qualcomm or cut price targets following its weak guidance.
In line with the stabilizing price action and bullish technical indicators, that wave of caution now appears to be softening.
This week has seen the team at Wells Fargo lift its rating from Underweight to Equal Weight, while Loop Capital went even further, upgrading Qualcomm to a full Buy. They argued that key near-term headwinds are beginning to ease and that the company’s broader diversification strategy is strengthening its longer-term outlook.
Both Loop Capital and Wells Fargo set fresh price targets of $185, implying roughly 30% upside from current levels and adding to the sense that we could be looking at a serious contender for a comeback rally.
For this early reversal to evolve into something more durable, Qualcomm needs to consolidate recent gains and begin forming a base around $150.
That level is psychologically important as it’s been a key battleground many times before. If the stock can hold above the recent lows and start carving out higher lows, confidence should begin to rebuild. A decisive break below $130, however, would likely invite renewed selling.
This remains a stock with real headwinds. Handset demand uncertainty has not disappeared, and management still needs to restore credibility around forward growth. But markets often turn before fundamentals visibly improve. The bullish MACD crossover deep below zero suggests that downside momentum may have already peaked.

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After trading near $210 last summer, tech giant ServiceNow Inc (NYSE: NOW) now sits in the $105-$115 range. The multi-month decline effectively halved the stock’s value, even though the company has consistently topped expectations in its quarterly reports.
The disconnect has puzzled some investors and worried many more. Sure, the company posted record revenue in its January report, but the stock has been relentlessly sold nonetheless. The culprit has been narrative fear, specifically around the impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on more traditional software businesses.
In ServiceNow’s case, the worry is that customers will be able to use AI to automate elements of the company’s workflow management platform themselves, which would seriously compress the company’s long-term growth runway. Hence, there has been a sharp re-rating over the past nine months.
However, with the stock now oversold to historical extremes, while revenue sits at an all-time high, that fear may have gone too far. Let’s jump in and see why the contrarian case is starting to gather some momentum.
In its latest earnings report from late January, ServiceNow went to some length to show that AI is not eroding demand. Or at least, not to the level that the bears are claiming.
Management showed how subscription revenue growth remained strong, while offering solid forward guidance. Yes, ServiceNow’s forward growth might not be accelerating dramatically, but it’s certainly not in structural decline.
More importantly, management began positioning AI not as a threat but as a tailwind, with CEO Bill McDermott arguing that AI doesn’t replace enterprise orchestration; rather, it depends on it.
In other words, as enterprises adopt AI, they still need workflow coordination, automation layers, and system integration, which is precisely where ServiceNow fits in. The market, however, will clearly need some convincing to buy into this, but there are signs the pendulum has started to swing.
From a technical standpoint, the stock looked very oversold in late February. ServiceNow’s relative strength index (RSI) readings recently fell to extreme levels following last month’s report, marking one of the most washed-out readings in years.
It’s rare to see a stock so deeply oversold while revenue is at an all-time high. And with shares already having had a 50% haircut, you have to be thinking the worst-case scenario is fully priced in.
Encouragingly, price action is starting to reflect this as it stabilizes. Shares have refused to make a new low since early February, and the chart is starting to show higher lows forming around the $100 level.
If that base can hold and momentum continues to improve, the narrative could shift quickly from ServiceNow being a possible “AI victim” to a potential “AI beneficiary.”
The other thing to consider is that while the stock chart might not look great, analyst sentiment remains firmly bullish. The team at Citizens has reiterated its Market Outperform rating in recent weeks, similar to Wells Fargo’s Overweight rating and Bernstein’s Outperform rating. A fresh price target of $237 from Citigroup implies potential upside well beyond 100% from current levels.
Even if the most aggressive price targets are taken with a pinch of salt, the broader message is clear: Wall Street isn’t worried about any serious structural damage to the underlying business. Instead, analysts continue to point to resilient guidance, growing traction in AI-enabled offerings, and strategic acquisitions as evidence that the company’s long-term positioning remains intact.
However, for the recent price action to evolve into a sustained recovery, ServiceNow shares need to continue forming a base above $100 and add to the run of higher lows. This would signal that the bears have exhausted themselves and lack the conviction to take the stock down any further. At the same time, a decisive break below $100 would reopen downside risk and undermine the bull thesis.
Conversely, if buyers continue stepping in and momentum indicators keep turning higher, we could be looking at a serious comeback rally. Deeply oversold names that carry massive upside targets can move quickly once the bears step back.
Still, the setup is not without risk. ServiceNow’s revenue growth has slowed to its lowest pace in years, and it remains to be seen how well management can make AI work for the company, rather than against it. However, when a firm can consistently beat expectations, post record revenue, and still carry broad analyst support after losing 50% of its value, the risk-reward profile begins to look quite attractive.

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BY KEITH KAPLAN
CEO, TRADESMITH
Nothing that can be done on a computer is safe…
Matt Shumer wrote that line earlier this month in a post that went viral.
Shumer isn’t a pundit or a journalist. For the past six years, he’s been building AI tools.
His essay, titled “Something Big Is Happening,” got 80 million views in a week. CBS put him on the morning news.
Shumer made the case that AI has crossed a line. It’s no longer just a chatbot. It’s now an autonomous agent – something that goes out on the internet, makes decisions, and completes complex tasks on its own, without waiting for you to guide it.
Here’s how he described his Monday morning as a software developer using AI agents to help him code:
I tell the AI what I want, walk away from my computer for four hours, and come back to find the work done. Done well, done better than I would have done it myself, with no corrections needed. […] I am no longer needed for the actual technical work of my job.
Wall Street read that. And it started selling.
Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) stocks like Salesforce (CRM), ServiceNow (NOW), and Adobe (ADBE) have collapsed into bear market territory. The ETF that tracks them is down more than 20% this year. Traders are calling it the “SaaSpocalypse.”
It’s not just SaaS companies. Popular AI plays are also struggling. Microsoft (MSFT) is down about 16% in 2026. Tesla (TSLA) is down about 10%. Even the mighty Nvidia (NVDA) has been dropping. Its stock sank 5% yesterday after reporting glowing earnings. And it’s now also in the red in 2026.
But the data is telling a different story in other parts of the market – one most investors aren’t seeing yet. While parts of the tech trade are blowing up, money is pouring into other sectors of the market.
And the destination isn’t random. It’s where the AI trade is headed next.
Today, we’ll use TradeSmith’s Short-Term Health tool to take a deeper dive. I’ll also share a list of 10 stocks to avoid and 10 to buy as this rotation continues.
Short-Term Health shows you when stocks are in healthy uptrends, unhealthy downtrends, or transitions between the two.
It looks at how a stock has behaved historically to establish what’s normal for it – then flags when something changes.
It’s more sensitive to near-term trend shifts than our classic Long-Term Health indicator. But it works on the same traffic-light system:
The table below breaks down the S&P 500’s major sectors by their Short-Term Health. As you can see, the Technology ETF XLK entered a Red Zone three days ago. It joins the Financial Services and Consumer Cyclicals ETFs, which are already there.

That’s not a reason to panic. Short-Term Health is our most sensitive trend-shift indicator. All three sectors remain in their Long-Term Health Green Zones.
But it is a reason to be cautious – and to pay attention to where the money is flowing to now.
Since ChatGPT launched in November 2022, AI was the reason to be bullish on stocks. It drove the market to record highs and made tech the most powerful sector.
This year, something flipped.
Investors are pulling money out of sectors vulnerable to AI disruption – particularly software, legal, and financial companies. And they’re piling into Energy and Basic Materials instead.
Our distribution data makes this clear. It shows how many stocks in a sector are in Green, Yellow, and Red Zones.
As you can see in the table above, nearly all Basic Materials and Energy stocks are in Green Zones. That means they have the best overall health of all the S&P sectors. Meanwhile, 55% of Technology stocks, 44% of Financial stocks, and 30% of Consumer Discretionary stocks are in Red Zones.
That brings me to the two lists of stocks I mentioned – one to avoid, one to buy.
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For stocks to avoid, I screened TradeSmith Finance for stocks in the three sectors – Technology, Financials, and Consumer Discretionary – that recently entered Red Zones.

The results included some big, well-known names – and a few surprises.
BlackRock (BLK) and Intercontinental Exchange (ICE)flipped red on Wednesday. BlackRock manages more than $10 trillion. ICE runs the New York Stock Exchange. When companies like these roll over, the pressure on financials is broad – not just a few weak outliers.
Jack Henry & Associates (JKHY)makes the core banking software that thousands of community banks and credit unions run on. EPAM Systems (EPAM) builds custom software for large enterprises worldwide. Both sit squarely in the crosshairs of AI disruption.
Raymond James (RJF) has also flipped bearish. It serves millions of retail investors and financial advisors.
Interestingly, American Express (AXP) is on the list, too. It’s a bellwether for consumer spending among higher-income households. The market isn’t just worried about AI disruption – it may also be starting to price in a broader economic slowdown.
If autonomous agents can write code, manage workflows, and automate banking processes, companies selling those services to human teams become an obvious target for nervous investors.
If you’re holding any of these for the long term, this isn’t a reason to sell. But if your timeframe is months and you’re hoping for a quick profit, the trend is now against you.
The flip side of that story is playing out in Energy and Basic Materials – and the names turning green there are equally telling.

EQT Corporation (EQT) and EOG Resources (EOG) stand out. EQT is one of the largest natural gas producers in the U.S. EOG is a major oil-and-gas explorer.
And Marathon Petroleum (MPC) is one of the largest refinery operators in the country.
If you’ve been following the AI story, the pattern is clear. These aren’t random winners – they’re critical infrastructure for the AI buildout.
Every data center running an AI model needs massive electricity. EQT and EOG supply the natural gas that powers those facilities. EQT recently signed a deal to supply gas to a 3,200-acre AI data center campus in Pennsylvania – one of the largest in North America.
Linde (LIN) and Air Products & Chemicals (APD) are the two largest industrial gas companies in the world. They supply the ultra-pure nitrogen, oxygen, hydrogen, and argon that semiconductor fabs need to manufacture chips.
Without these gases, Taiwan Semiconductor, Intel, and Samsung can’t produce the chips that power AI models. It’s not a glamorous business. But it sits at the foundation of the entire AI supply chain – and our Short-Term Health indicator says the market is starting to notice.
Wall Street is selling stocks in businesses AI threatens to replace – and buying the physical infrastructure stocks AI can’t exist without.
That’s not a hunch, gut feel, or guesswork. It’s what the data shows.
All the best,

Keith Kaplan
CEO, TradeSmith
P.S. Last year, I started posting on X because I wanted a place to share ideas, talk about the tools we’re building, and the actionable TradeSmith signals that catch my eye when I first log into our platform each day.
It’s my pure, unfiltered thoughts. And I post there every day. Come find me @KeithTradeSmith. I’d love to have you along for the ride.
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Greetings!
It is our pleasure to invite you to an evening of celebration and gratitude as we honor the remarkable impact YOU have made within our ASU community and beyond at ASU Sparks Success 2026!
Over the past several years, Educational Outreach and Student Services has been entrusted with invaluable gifts that have empowered countless students and families. Now, it’s time to showcase the transformative SPARK you’ve ignited.
We hope you can join us in honoring our cherished donors and friends, gaining inspiration from our exceptional students, and rejoicing in the profound influence of your unwavering support!
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Kathleen Duffy is president and CEO of Duffy Group, Inc., one of the most respected recruiting firms in the country. Kathleen’s passion for helping individuals find their path is matched by her deep knowledge of the recruitment industry.
Kathleen is also the recipient of numerous local and national awards, including the prestigious ATHENA Award bestowed on women who exemplify leadership, community service and mentoring of other women.
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Sherri Wolson began her career in antitrust and appellate litigation before dedicating the past two decades to championing student success and community impact. She has held leadership and strategic roles on several nonprofit boards, including Social Venture Partners Seattle, Child Care Resources, and the Program for Early Parent Support, and she has driven fundraising efforts for schools and university reunions.
At ASU, she has served on the Family Ambassador Council for four years and is the founding co-chair of its Philanthropy Committee.
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By supporting initiatives that promote academic success, family well-being, and pathways to learning and careers, SRP plays a critical role in developing Arizona’s future workforce. Its continued commitment helps cultivate resilience, confidence, and opportunity for the next generation. As we celebrate SRP at the SPARKs Success event, we honor an organization whose leadership and vision are helping to build a stronger, more vibrant Arizona for years to come.
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ASU Educational Outreach and Student Services
300 E. University Drive, Suite 210, Tempe, AZ, 85281, USA
Copyright © 2026 Arizona Board of Regents | Privacy statement
RSVP TODAY!
Greetings!
It is our pleasure to invite you to an evening of celebration and gratitude as we honor the remarkable impact YOU have made within our ASU community and beyond at ASU Sparks Success 2026!
Over the past several years, Educational Outreach and Student Services has been entrusted with invaluable gifts that have empowered countless students and families. Now, it’s time to showcase the transformative SPARK you’ve ignited.
We hope you can join us in honoring our cherished donors and friends, gaining inspiration from our exceptional students, and rejoicing in the profound influence of your unwavering support!
Date: Wednesday, March 4, 2026
Time: 5:30 – 8 p.m.
Location: San Tan Ford Club at Mountain America Stadium, 550 E. Veterans Way, Tempe, AZRSVP Today
2026 Awardees
Kathleen Duffy
Kathleen Duffy is president and CEO of Duffy Group, Inc., one of the most respected recruiting firms in the country. Kathleen’s passion for helping individuals find their path is matched by her deep knowledge of the recruitment industry.
Kathleen is also the recipient of numerous local and national awards, including the prestigious ATHENA Award bestowed on women who exemplify leadership, community service and mentoring of other women.
Sherri Wolson
Sherri Wolson began her career in antitrust and appellate litigation before dedicating the past two decades to championing student success and community impact. She has held leadership and strategic roles on several nonprofit boards, including Social Venture Partners Seattle, Child Care Resources, and the Program for Early Parent Support, and she has driven fundraising efforts for schools and university reunions.
At ASU, she has served on the Family Ambassador Council for four years and is the founding co-chair of its Philanthropy Committee.
SRP
Salt River Project (SRP) stands as a pillar of Arizona’s communities, demonstrating a deep and enduring commitment to student success and community advancement. Through strategic investments in students and families, SRP helps expand access to education, opportunity, and stability—laying the groundwork for lifelong achievement. Its dedication reflects a strong belief that when young people are supported and families are empowered, communities thrive and futures are strengthened.
By supporting initiatives that promote academic success, family well-being, and pathways to learning and careers, SRP plays a critical role in developing Arizona’s future workforce. Its continued commitment helps cultivate resilience, confidence, and opportunity for the next generation. As we celebrate SRP at the SPARKs Success event, we honor an organization whose leadership and vision are helping to build a stronger, more vibrant Arizona for years to come.
Your continued support makes all the difference, and we can’t wait to celebrate with you! If you would like to donate today, see our current sponsorship opportunities.
#SPARKsSuccess
This email was sent to: peter.hovis@gmail.com
Forward to a friend | Update Profile | Unsubscribe
View this email online
ASU Educational Outreach and Student Services
300 E. University Drive, Suite 210, Tempe, AZ, 85281, USA
Copyright © 2026 Arizona Board of Regents | Privacy statement

RSVP TODAY!
Greetings!
It is our pleasure to invite you to an evening of celebration and gratitude as we honor the remarkable impact YOU have made within our ASU community and beyond at ASU Sparks Success 2026!
Over the past several years, Educational Outreach and Student Services has been entrusted with invaluable gifts that have empowered countless students and families. Now, it’s time to showcase the transformative SPARK you’ve ignited.
We hope you can join us in honoring our cherished donors and friends, gaining inspiration from our exceptional students, and rejoicing in the profound influence of your unwavering support!
Date: Wednesday, March 4, 2026
Time: 5:30 – 8 p.m.
Location: San Tan Ford Club at Mountain America Stadium, 550 E. Veterans Way, Tempe, AZRSVP Today
2026 Awardees
Kathleen Duffy
Kathleen Duffy is president and CEO of Duffy Group, Inc., one of the most respected recruiting firms in the country. Kathleen’s passion for helping individuals find their path is matched by her deep knowledge of the recruitment industry.
Kathleen is also the recipient of numerous local and national awards, including the prestigious ATHENA Award bestowed on women who exemplify leadership, community service and mentoring of other women.
Sherri Wolson
Sherri Wolson began her career in antitrust and appellate litigation before dedicating the past two decades to championing student success and community impact. She has held leadership and strategic roles on several nonprofit boards, including Social Venture Partners Seattle, Child Care Resources, and the Program for Early Parent Support, and she has driven fundraising efforts for schools and university reunions.
At ASU, she has served on the Family Ambassador Council for four years and is the founding co-chair of its Philanthropy Committee.
SRP
Salt River Project (SRP) stands as a pillar of Arizona’s communities, demonstrating a deep and enduring commitment to student success and community advancement. Through strategic investments in students and families, SRP helps expand access to education, opportunity, and stability—laying the groundwork for lifelong achievement. Its dedication reflects a strong belief that when young people are supported and families are empowered, communities thrive and futures are strengthened.
By supporting initiatives that promote academic success, family well-being, and pathways to learning and careers, SRP plays a critical role in developing Arizona’s future workforce. Its continued commitment helps cultivate resilience, confidence, and opportunity for the next generation. As we celebrate SRP at the SPARKs Success event, we honor an organization whose leadership and vision are helping to build a stronger, more vibrant Arizona for years to come.
Your continued support makes all the difference, and we can’t wait to celebrate with you! If you would like to donate today, see our current sponsorship opportunities.
#SPARKsSuccess
This email was sent to: peter.hovis@gmail.com
Forward to a friend | Update Profile | Unsubscribe
View this email online
ASU Educational Outreach and Student Services
300 E. University Drive, Suite 210, Tempe, AZ, 85281, USA
Copyright © 2026 Arizona Board of Regents | Privacy statement