RJ Hamster
RJ Hamster
RJ Hamster
RJ Hamster
Route 66 Turns 100: Explore the Iconic Highway’s History
In honor of Route 66 turning 100 in 2026, explore the iconic highway’s history, which cemented its status as a staple of American culture.
— Read on nicenews.com/culture/route-66-turns-100-history/
RJ Hamster
The “Powell Era” Ends with a Divided Fed
Powell’s final act… more of the “wait and see” approach… the Warsh Fed takes shape … why the balance sheet matters more than the interest rate
The Federal Reserve wrapped up its April FOMC meeting today, voting to hold its benchmark federal funds rate steady at 3.5%-3.75%.
This marks the third consecutive meeting in which the committee chose to stand pat, following three straight cuts to close out 2025.
The hold was fully expected. What wasn’t entirely expected was just how divided the committee turned out to be.
The vote split 8-4, the most dissents at a Fed meeting since October 1992.
To be clear, three of the four dissenters – Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan – agreed with the hold on rates. Their objection was to the “easing bias” language retained in the statement, specifically the phrase referencing “additional adjustments to the target range,” which implies the next move is more likely down than up. They don’t want to signal that anymore.
That’s not to be confused with a preference for a rate hike. As Powell said in his press conference, answering a question on this: “No one’s calling for a hike.”
The fourth dissenter, Fed Governor Stephen Miran, went the other direction – he pushed for a quarter-point cut today.
So, the primary disagreement inside the Fed isn’t about the immediate decision. It’s about what posture the central bank should project heading into an environment where the inflation picture remains genuinely murky.
On that front, Powell was direct about why the inflation picture is murky: the Middle East conflict
The FOMC’s statement acknowledged that the war is “contributing to a high level of uncertainty about the economic outlook,” with elevated inflation tied to the “recent increase in global energy prices.”
Powell’s core point about this in the press conference was straightforward – no one knows how long this conflict will last, so the Fed can’t confidently model what will happen to energy prices and related inflation.
This resulted in Powell’s usual tap-dance routine with the press. For example, when asked about high oil prices and the risk of elevated core inflation readings, Powell said:
We’re just going to have to wait and see.
But he did say that inflation is “already kind of misbehaving,” though it’s too soon to see the full extent of it.
For doves wanting rate cuts, Powell didn’t offer much encouragement. He said that the energy shock “hasn’t even peaked yet,” and that the Fed would want to see the back side of it before even thinking about reducing rates.
Overall, as usual, “wait and see” was Powell’s bottom line for interest rate policy in light of all the uncertainty today:
We’re in a good place to wait and let things develop.
As for Powell himself, he confirmed he will remain on the Board of Governors for a time “to be determined,” serving out his term as governor, which runs through January 2028.
But he was clear about saying that he will not be a “shadow chair”:
I plan to keep a low profile as a governor.
There’s only ever one chair of the Federal Reserve Board. When Kevin Warsh is confirmed and sworn in, he will be that chair.
Overall, there were no major curveballs today – and the market seemed to agree.
Stocks were mixed but largely held their ground, with most of Wall Street’s attention focused on the Magnificent Seven earnings due after the bell.
We’ll report on these tomorrow.
Speaking of Kevin Warsh, he got one step closer today to being the new Fed Chair.
While Powell was preparing for his press conference this afternoon, the Senate Banking Committee was voting on his replacement.
In a vote that fell along party lines, the Committee advanced Warsh’s nomination to be the new Fed chair. The full Senate vote is expected the week of May 11.
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So, who is Warsh, and what kind of Fed will he run?
Warsh served on the Fed’s Board of Governors from 2006 to 2011. His tenure overlapped with the 2008 financial crisis, during which he helped manage the central bank’s response under then-Chair Ben Bernanke.
During that period, he earned a reputation as a rate hawk – someone who generally preferred higher interest rates as a tool for maintaining price stability.
Since leaving the Fed, he has become one of its most vocal critics. He was an early proponent of the bond-buying programs that expanded the Fed’s balance sheet during the financial crisis but grew increasingly skeptical of the practice over time – ultimately tendering his resignation over the central bank’s continued purchases.
President Donald Trump nominated him with the expectation that he would cut interest rates, but the President may not get what he bargained for.
At his confirmation hearing last week, Warsh tried to thread a difficult needle. On one hand, he voiced support for Fed independence:
Monetary policy independence is essential. Monetary policymakers must act in the nation’s interest.
On the other hand, he defended the right of elected officials to weigh in on rates – a position Democrats hammered as cover for political interference.
When pressed directly by Senator Elizabeth Warren on whether he would be Trump’s “sock puppet” at the Fed, Warsh pushed back:
I’m honored the president nominated me for the position, and I’ll be an independent actor if confirmed as chairman of the Federal Reserve.
Whether that independence holds under political pressure will be the central question of the Warsh era.
Warsh is not the pure hawk his reputation suggests. He favors rate cuts, though paired with a meaningful reduction in the Fed’s balance sheet.
And yet, this is the part of the Warsh story that most financial coverage has missed. And it matters – directly – to your mortgage, your borrowing costs, and your portfolio.
Let’s talk about why…
The potential for stealth tightening under Warsh
Most of the Warsh coverage has centered on one question…
Will he cut the fed funds rate sooner than Powell would have, or later?
While that question matters in the short term, another question has far more impact on the long-term outlook.
The more consequential issue is Warsh’s interest in reducing the Fed’s balance sheet – a $6.7 trillion portfolio of Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities that has ballooned from less than $900 billion before the 2008 financial crisis.
Consider what that massive expansion actually did…
When the Fed buys bonds, it floods the financial system with cash. All that cash has to go somewhere – and it did.
It flowed into stocks, real estate, corporate debt, and venture capital. It suppressed long-term interest rates far below where a free market would have set them. And it made borrowing artificially cheap for corporations, homebuyers, and the federal government alike.
In short, it inflated the price of nearly every asset you can name.
That was the point – at least initially. In the depths of the 2008 crisis and again during COVID, the Fed used its balance sheet as an emergency tool to prevent financial collapse.
The problem is that the emergency never fully ended, at least not on the Fed’s books. The balance sheet stayed swollen long after the crisis passed.
But a decade-plus of artificially suppressed rates has consequences: a housing market that’s priced out of reach for first-time buyers… a stock market trading at the second highest CAPE valuation in more than 140 years… and today’s federal debt that has crossed $39 trillion, financed for years at rates that never reflected the true cost of borrowing – a bill that gets far more expensive to service the moment those artificial supports are removed.
Warsh argues that this distortion is still baked into the system. At $6.7 trillion, the Fed’s footprint in the bond market remains enormous.
But if we remove the Fed as a perpetual bond buyer, demand likely falls. And that can mean the Treasury will have to offer higher yields to attract other buyers. Mortgage rates follow. Corporate borrowing costs follow. And the whole long end of the curve faces upward repricing pressure – not because of anything Warsh does with the fed funds rate, but because the artificial support is being withdrawn.
That’s the mechanical effect of removing a major price-insensitive buyer from the market – regardless of policymakers’ intentions.
That is why the balance sheet story is bigger than the rate story. The fed funds rate is the number everyone watches. But the balance sheet is the lever that moves the rates everyone actually pays.
To be clear, this is not necessarily Warsh’s goal. His argument is that if done credibly, this mix could actually lower inflation expectations and allow long-term rates to stabilize or even fall.
Still, “if” and “could” are doing a lot of work there.
Warsh has been explicit about his intentions
On the Larry Kudlow program last summer, he said:
You could take down that balance sheet a couple trillion dollars over time, in concert with the Treasury secretary.
That’s a big rate cut that could come, and what you would do then is turbo-charge the real economy, where things are somewhat tougher, and ultimately the financial markets would be fine.
Let’s make sure we’re on the same page about this…
When the Fed lowers rates, it loosens economic conditions. But when it shrinks its balance sheet, it tightens them – because pulling cash out of the system has the same basic effect as making that cash more expensive to borrow.
Warsh’s strategy is to execute both simultaneously – not explicitly to steepen the curve, but to normalize how it’s set.
Cut the fed funds rate to give the economy some relief on short-term borrowing costs – meanwhile, shrink the balance sheet and withdraw the liquidity that has been artificially suppressing long-term yields for over a decade.
The expected outcome? The short end comes down. But lhe long end faces upward pressure – even if Warsh hopes it doesn’t rise materially. The curve risks steepening.
Regardless, from a policy standpoint, it would be a win for Warsh – he can tell the White House he delivered rate cuts, and he can tell inflation hawks he kept overall financial conditions tight.
But if market mechanics outweigh policy intentions, the net effect on the real economy could be tighter than the headline rate cut implies.
Whether the fed funds rate gets cut in the second half of 2026 or not, a Warsh-led push to reduce the balance sheet would likely exert independent upward pressure on long-term yields.
That means mortgage rates staying elevated… corporate borrowing costs staying elevated… and the valuation math on growth stocks staying pressured – all without Warsh touching the fed funds rate dial once.
Bottom line: The market is watching the rate decision – but it should be watching the balance sheet, because that’s where Warsh’s intentions and market realities are most likely to diverge.
We’ll keep tracking this as the Warsh era begins.
Have a good evening,
Jeff Remsburg
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RJ Hamster
A Little More Hope to See You Through
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RJ Hamster
How Small Investors Are Crushing the “Smart” Money
When I was 24 years old, I took out a $100,000 loan to get my master’s in finance. I thought I was buying the blueprint for how institutional investing really works.
Boy, was I wrong.
My formal education taught me how to speak Wall Street’s language so I could hold my own in a room full of analysts and bankers.
But what it didn’t teach me was how to make money in the real world.
A cash flow statement can tell you how a business works. A valuation model can help you compare one company against another.
But none of that tells you when Wall Street is missing the bigger picture, or when a stock is about to be valued much higher, or when a hated sector is about to come back to life.
And none of it tells you when the “smart” money is walking straight into a trap.
That kind of judgment only comes from experience.
I was lucky enough to learn from one of the best real-world investors I know: Teeka Tiwari.
Teeka taught me how to look beyond the obvious fundamentals. He taught me how to think beyond the textbooks when the bigger opportunity was hiding in plain sight.
Most of the investing knowledge that changed my life didn’t come from a classroom. It came from the newsletter business, where I’ve built a career over the last decade.
It came from studying real market cycles and real investor behavior… and having real money on the line. That’s the knowledge I used to go from six figures in debt when I graduated college to seven figures in the bank 5 years later.
Granted, you have to learn the rules before you can break them. But it pays off when the market proves you right.
The Smart Money Is Underwater
Just look at the so-called smart money.
For decades, investors have been told the same thing: Give your money to the big money managers. Trust the professionals. It’s the responsible thing to do.
After all, they have the teams of Ivy League analysts. They have the multimillion-dollar models. They have access to the private research you and I will never get.
If you’ve done that before, I don’t blame you. You did everything “by the book.”
But this year has exposed a hard truth that Teeka and I have believed for years… Even the smartest people in the room can get it wrong.
Take Pershing Square Holdings, a hedge fund run by billionaire investor Bill Ackman. It’s down 13% for the year.
We’re talking about one of the most famous investment firms in the world, not some tiny fund run by amateurs.
And it’s not the only example. Chris Hohn, who made a record $18.9 billion in profits last year, just watched his flagship TCI fund fall 9.4% in a single quarter.
Across Wall Street, big funds are struggling to keep up with a market that keeps punishing crowded trades. The average hedge fund is down 0.27% this year, after losing 3.6% last month alone.
Even industry giants like Citadel and Millennium spent much of April fighting just to get back to breakeven.
The Hidden Tax Most Investors Aren’t Seeing
The cost of this underperformance is vast. All of these firms charge you whether they make money or lose money. And even when they make you money, some of these funds can take as much as 50% of YOUR profits.
Think about that. They eat none of the loss, take as much as half of your gain, AND charge you 2-5% win, lose, or draw.
It’s an amazing racket.
What’s incredible about the time period we live in is we all have access to much more information than we’ve ever had before. And the so-called “retail” investor has been using that edge to light up the institutions.
In October 2022, JPMorgan’s CEO Jamie Dimon warned that we’d slip into a recession within six to nine months.
And yet, according to Business Insider, retail investors just kept buying stocks, spending a record $1.5 billion a day. By the end of 2023, they saw the S&P 500 return as much as 37%, while the average fund made only about 10%.
It was a similar story again during the tariff tantrum that started last year. While the big boys were running for the hills, and dumping over $40 billion in stocks… retail was buying, pouring $7.3 billion into the markets.
Retail investors who hung in there made as much as 48% buying the S&P 500 off its lows, while the broad hedge fund industry only made 12.5%.
Here we are again with the most recent oil crisis, and we can tell you we’ve been doing our part to help our “mom-and-pop” subscribers absolutely crush the “smart” money.
Last year, many of the big funds were paralyzed by ESG mandates. They were forced to sell perfectly good companies because of a narrative, pushed by the IEA and major banks like HSBC and Citigroup, that global oil demand would fall off a cliff after 2030.
We knew that decline story was wishful thinking. We looked at the facts and saw oil consumption had tripled since the 1960s, with no signs of slowing down thanks to demand for jet fuel, synthetic fibers, and heating.
We identified energy stocks priced so cheap, the “risk” was essentially boredom. Some were trading at discounts as big as 70% compared to tech.
While the “smart” money is now stuck in software indexes that have cratered 21% since January, our energy picks are up 53% on average over the same timeframe.
We didn’t take on huge risks to get those returns. We just ignored the crowd and waited for the price to catch up to the facts.
As outsiders, what’s our edge? You and I, we don’t report to shareholders, limited partners, or an investment committee. That means we can go against the herd. Take a position when fear is high and sentiment is low. Professionals can’t do that without risking their jobs.
That’s why we built our Asymmetric Edge research service. We’re not trying to copy the hedge funds or chase every AI darling that makes headlines on CNBC.
We also don’t ask our readers to pay Wall Street-level fees for Wall Street-level disappointment.
Instead, we focus on asymmetric opportunities. Situations where the upside is much bigger than the downside. Small, smart bets that can turn into much bigger wins.
This is the kind of investing Teeka has spent the last 20 years teaching since he walked away from Wall Street for good. And it’s the kind of thinking that changed my life.
Because real investing is about seeing when the market is focused on the wrong thing. It’s about spotting a trend before it becomes obvious. And it’s about having the courage to act when the crowd is still confused.
The Edge Wall Street Can’t Copy
That’s where regular investors can still have an edge.
A giant hedge fund cannot easily move into smaller opportunities without moving the market. It cannot move quickly without committees and red tape. And it cannot look strange for too long, because big investors expect clean quarterly reports.
We don’t have those problems. We can go where the big funds can’t. We can focus on the opportunities that are still too small, too early, or too misunderstood for the big institutions to care about.
That’s our advantage. And it’s working. While the top 10 hedge funds are down 0.27%, our Asymmetric Edge model portfolio is up 14%.
One subscriber wrote in this month after following our recommendation on Bloom Energy (BE), which sells around-the-clock power directly to data centers (comments edited lightly for clarity):
Purchased BE at $114.02 and now is up to $227. Been following Teeka for close to 5 years and my portfolio has certainly gotten much better from him. Thank you and your team, Teeka.
Another, Randy C., wrote:
I purchased Bloom Energy last December when it was recommended by Teeka along with the rest of the Asymmetric Edge portfolio. I sold half of it when recommended and made back more than the initial cost ($99) of the original subscription. Thank you again, Teeka!
Bloom already gave our subscribers the chance to book a 139% win for a “free ride,” and it’s still running. The remaining shares have now more than tripled since we added them in December.
I’m not saying every position will go up in a straight line, or be a winner like Bloom.
That’s not how real investing works. There will be pullbacks and volatility.
There will be times when the market makes you feel dumb before it proves you right.
But what our near 14.3% outperformance against the hedge funds shows is you don’t need to blindly follow the “smart” money to make smart decisions.
You don’t need to accept the idea that you’re stuck with whatever retirement plan Wall Street gives you.
I learned the textbook version of finance in school. I learned real-world investing from Teeka, from the newsletter business, and from putting real money behind real ideas.
And the biggest lesson I can share with you is this: You don’t get rich by blindly trusting the crowd. You get rich by learning how to think differently before the crowd is forced to catch up.
In a market where even the smart money is getting caught off guard, I believe regular investors need this kind of edge more than ever.
So if you’re tired of paying attention to Wall Street only to feel more confused…
And if you want a simpler way to find high-upside opportunities before they become obvious…
I encourage you to review our latest research inside The Asymmetric Edge.
We’ll show you what we’re buying, why we’re buying it, and why you should
consider sidestepping the madness in the most over-owned AI stocks.
Don’t Watch the Future Happen. Own It!
Houston Molnar
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RJ Hamster
Capital One cardholders unlock early entry and special ticket…
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Complimentary Capital One All-Star Village Tickets are available starting Wednesday, April 29, 2026, at 10:00 a.m. EST until whenever the last ticket is redeemed. This ticket offer is open to Capital One credit and debit cardholders, including co-brand partner and Discover cards, which are open and active, and in good standing at the time of accessing tickets. Capital One private label retail credit cards are not eligible. You must use your eligible Capital One card to access tickets. Maximum of four (4) Capital One All-Star Village Tickets per transaction. Capital One All-Star Village Tickets are available on a first-come, first-served basis while supplies last. Use of any Major League Baseball game/event/exhibition ticket is subject to the standard terms, conditions, and health and safety policies applicable to the ticket; mlb.com/all-star/tickets/terms-and-conditions for details. Capital One All-Star Village Tickets may not be resold. Any individual reselling a Capital One All-Star Village Ticket by any method is subject to loss of the ticket privileges. Substitution and cash redemption not permitted.
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Kinross Tonight: The Cash Flow Tell
There are earnings days where you can almost feel the market getting bored.
This isn’t one of them.
Kinross Gold (KGC) releases Q1 2026 results after the close today, Wednesday, April 29, 2026. The call is tomorrow morning, Thursday, April 30 at 8:00 a.m. EDT.
Gold’s been strong long enough that we’re past the “cute macro narrative” stage. Now it’s the unsexy stage: does the cash actually land in the bank quarter after quarter?
That’s the tell. Everything else is commentary.
What we already know (and it’s not small)
Before tonight’s numbers, Kinross already told you what kind of machine it can be in a supportive tape.
For full-year 2025, they reported:
- Revenue: $7.051B (vs $5.149B in 2024).
- Attributable free cash flow: $2.474B (vs $1.340B in 2024).
- Net earnings: $2.390B (vs $948.8M in 2024).
- Net cash: about $1.0B at Dec 31, 2025 (cash & equivalents about $1.7B).
The free cash flow number is the one that changes how you should think about KGC. A miner can “beat” EPS all day and still be a leaky bucket. Free cash flow is harder to fake, especially for more than a quarter.
Then there’s the capital return posture. Management guided to returning roughly 40% of free cash flow to shareholders in 2026 via dividends and buybacks. They also raised the quarterly dividend to $0.04 (a further 14%increase), which they described as a 33% total increase since Q3 2025. Sponsored
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Here’s where I’m at: in this sector, saying “we’ll return capital” is table stakes. Saying how muchyou intend to return is better. Following through when the stock is already acting well? That’s the real separator.
Slight tangent, but it matters: miners get religion about buybacks right when cash is flooding in… and then they get timid the second the stock starts moving up. If you want to know whether management is serious, you watch the execution(dollars deployed, share count trend), not the press-release adjectives.
The three questions that will actually move the stock
1) Did Q1 produce “real” cash?
Not just operating cash flow. Not just adjusted EBITDA. I want the full bridge in my head: operating cash flow → capex → free cash flow, and then where that cash went.
Because the market is in a mood where it’ll reward the boring thing: steady conversion. If KGC’s cash conversion stays tight in Q1, the stock can trade like a quality compounder for a while. If it gets messy, you’ll feel it immediately in the tone of the Q&A.
2) Is 2026 guidance steady… or is the language quietly changing?
In the FY2025 release, Kinross framed 2026 guidance around ~2.0 million attributable gold equivalent ounces (+/–5%). I’m less focused on tiny production variance and more focused on whether they start adding caveats.
The market forgives a quarter with weird weather, weird sequencing, a maintenance hiccup. What it doesn’t love is the first appearance of phrases like “reassessing,” “uncertain,” “challenging environment,” “higher-than-expected.”
3) Do they act like owners with the cash, or like deal junkies?
This is where I’m skeptical by default. The mining industry has a long history of turning strong gold tapes into bad acquisitions. It’s almost a tradition.
If the capital return framework stays front-and-center – great. If the script suddenly becomes “strategic opportunities” without strict return hurdles, I get cautious. Not because M&A is always wrong. Because “expensive M&A at the wrong time” is one of the easiest ways to destroy what should’ve been a great setup.
A quick note on targets and upgrades
RBC upgraded Kinross to Outperform and raised its price target to $45, pointing to cash flow strength and leverage to a strong gold tape. That matters at the margin – it helps keep incremental institutional demand pointed in the right direction.
But price targets aren’t the thesis. The thesis is mechanical: if gold stays elevated, and if KGC keeps converting that tape into durable free cash flow, the stock doesn’t need a heroic narrative. It can just grind higher on math. Sponsored
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How this breaks (so you’re not surprised later)
If I’m wrong on KGC from here, I don’t think it’ll be subtle. It’ll usually be one of these:
- Gold drawdown: margins compress quickly, and the market stops paying for “durable FCF.”
- Cost creep: not a one-quarter blip, but a real reset higher in sustaining costs and capex.
- Capital allocation drift: buybacks slow, M&A language speeds up, and the “return 40%” framework stops feeling like a priority.
That’s why tonight’s print is useful. It’s a live test of whether the “cash machine” phase is still on… or whether it’s starting to wobble in the first quarter where everyone is watching.
I’ll be looking at the free cash flow bridge first, then listening for guidance tone. The rest is noise.
KGC is worth a closer look before the print clears.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.
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RJ Hamster
Should Investors Feel the “Rithm” in This 10% Yielder?
AN OXFORD CLUB PUBLICATION
Loyal reader since August 2025
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SAFETY NET
Should Investors Feel the “Rithm” in This 10% Yielder?
Marc Lichtenfeld, Chief Income Strategist, The Oxford Club
Rithm Capital (NYSE: RITM) is a mortgage REIT that sports a generous 10% yield. Will that dividend eventually turn into a sour note, or can it continue to make sweet, sweet music for investors?
Rithm Capital invests in a variety of loans, including residential mortgages, commercial loans, and consumer loans.
The measure of cash flow that we use for mortgage REITs and other lenders is net interest income. It’s safe to say Rithm’s net interest income has not been in rhythm. It’s been all over the place.
Net interest income plummeted to $115 million in 2024 from $255 million the year prior. It popped back to $212 million last year. This year, it is forecast to drop to $163 million, and it is projected to slip further in 2027 to $151 million.
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Safety Net has a big issue with falling cash flow. To feel secure about the dividend, we need to see cash flow be flat or rising. Each time it falls, Safety Net lowers the safety rating of the dividend. Declining cash flow is considered a cardinal sin.View larger image
As if that inconsistency isn’t bad enough, the company pays out multiple times its net interest income in dividends.
Last year, Rithm paid shareholders $643 million in dividends, or 304% of its net interest income.
This year, with net interest income expected to drop 23%, the payout ratio is projected to climb to 405%, or four times the amount of net interest income that Wall Street anticipates.
That is not sustainable.
Those figures paint a bleak picture… but sometimes companies with a strong dividend-paying track record deserve the benefit of the doubt.
Let’s see whether that’s the case for Rithm.Finish Reading Here
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