What Are The Chances For A Positive April And A 20% Gain In 2025? By: Kevin Matras April 19, 2025

After a strong start to the year, the indexes have all turned lower.

Tariff uncertainty is the main culprit.

What we do know is that the Administration has announced a 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs for most countries (sans China), so negotiations can take place. But the 10% base tariffs remain.

The reciprocal tariffs on China, however, still stand. At the moment, the U.S. has as high as a 145% tariff on China, while they have a 125% tariff on the U.S. Although, the White House has carved out exemptions for smartphones, semiconductors, and other electronic components and devices, etc.

But there’s plenty of questions left to be answered.

That includes what happens if other countries remove their tariffs? Will the 10% minimum tariff still apply, or will that be removed so both countries are at zero?

How long will these tariffs last?

And also, how much of those tariffs will companies pass on to customers?

That’s probably the biggest question right now.

For perspective, it’s important to know that imports make up only about 15% of U.S. GDP. Moreover, it’s highly unlikely that there will be a commensurate decrease in spending in relation to the tariffs. It’s also unlikely that all of the tariffs will result in pass-through price increases. Additionally, there’s the substitution effect of people simply switching to domestic products. That would be considered a benefit.

Nonetheless, the tariffs that were first announced back on April 2nd, are likely to be significantly reduced at the end of these negotiations. If so, that could create a powerful upside surprise for the economy.

Moreover, China’s exports to the U.S. are 5 times what the U.S. exports to them. So, there’s plenty of incentive for China to come to the table as well.

But judging by the reaction of the markets, some investors are shooting first and asking questions later.

Although, I would contend that the market was ripe for a pullback anyway, after running up too far, too fast at the end of last year and early this year.

But I’m here to say it’s an opportunity in disguise.

Most pullbacks/corrections are.

Pullbacks are defined as a decline between -5% and -9.99%, and they happen on average of 3-4 times a year. Corrections are defined as a decline between -10% and -19.99%, and they happen on average of about once a year. And bear markets are defined as a decline of -20% or more, and they happen on average of about once every 5 years. (Although, we’ve actually had a couple within the last 5 years.)

The Dow is down -13.0% from their all-time high close last December (correction). The S&P 500 is down -14.0% from their all-time high close just two months ago (correction). The Nasdaq is down -19.3% from their all-time high close last December (correction). The small-cap Russell 2000 is down -23.0% from their high close last November (bear market). And the mid-cap S&P 400 is down -19.1% from their all-time high close from November (correction).

As painful as pullbacks and corrections are, they are very common. Every bull market has them.

But if you know these are commonplace moves, you can instead look at them as opportunities to buy rather than places to sell.

Likewise, bear markets come and go as well.

But the moves back up are spectacular.

Literally every previous bear market has resulted in a new bull market.

And the last two bear markets (2020 due to the pandemic, and 2022 due to high inflation/high interest rates and subsequent banking scare), show just how quickly the gains can add up.

Within one year from the bear market low in 2020, the S&P was up 74.9%.

From the 2022 bear market low, it was up 22.4% 12 months later, 62.6% 24 months later, and 71.8% less than 2½ years later before peaking on 2/19/25.

You should also know that pullbacks, corrections and bear markets are often accompanied by great panic and hysteria. And it feels like we’re getting to that stage right now (if we aren’t already in it).

But declines like this help refresh and strengthen the market before the next leg up.

And when this one is done (it may be closer than you think after the previous week), I’m expecting a huge move up.

Here are some reasons why 2025 could ultimately shape up to be a historic bull market.

March Showers Bring April Flowers

Let me first start with March’s S&P decline of -5.75%.

Did you know that since 1945, in every instance when the S&P was down by -3% or more in March, it was then higher in April?

That happened 7 times. And each and every time it was higher in April.

The average gain in April was 5.92%.

That would be a heck of a move given where we are MTD right now.

Additionally, looking at April thru the end of the year, it was higher in 6 out of those 7 years, with an average gain of 20.3%.

A move I’m sure no one would want to miss.

History Repeats Itself

That 20% gain fits perfectly with this next statistic.

Last year saw the S&P 500 soar by 23.3%.

That was the second year in a row of 20%+ gains. (2023 was up 24.2%.)

That’s a feat rarely seen in the past.

And I believe that bodes well not only for this year, but for several years to come.

Although, some see the impressive back-to-back gains as a cautionary tale and tie it to the dot-com bubble.

But I see it differently.

The dot-com bubble ‘burst’ in 2000 when the S&P dropped by -10.1% for the year. (That was also Y2K, which caused plenty of panic leading up to it, but came and went pretty much without a hiccup.)

The point is, the dot-com bubble was preceded by the dot-com (technology) boom.

In 1995 the S&P was up 34.1%.

In 1996 it was up 20.3%.

That was the first time it was up 20% or more for two years in a row since 1954-55.

So, what happened in 1997? It was up another 31.0%.

(BTW, 1997 was one of those 7 years I mentioned earlier. In March of ’97, the S&P was down -4.26%. But in April it gained 5.84%. And from April to year’s end, it gained 28.17%.)

1998? Up another 26.7%.

And in 1999, it was up 19.5%.

A spectacular rally that lasted 5 long, glorious years.

Yes, the dot-com bubble arrived in 2000. But not before people got rich over the preceding 5 years with a 220% increase in the index, while plenty of individual stocks were up several hundred percent to several thousand percent.

And I believe we could possibly see the same thing again now. Maybe 5 years or more of boom times – for similar reasons, and some unique to the present day.

Tech Booms: Past And Present (AI Tech Boom Is Alive And Well)

The tech boom back then saw everybody go nuts for technology stocks, driven by the internet and dot-com companies.

It was new and exciting. And the internet was forecast to change the way people shopped, did business, and interacted with each other.

The promise was real, as we now know.

So, what’s the parallel?

In part, it’s another tech boom.

But this modern technology boom is being driven by Artificial Intelligence (AI).

And it’s forecast to be just as transformative as the personal computer, the internet and the mobile phone. And it’s expected to touch virtually every industry in some way shape or form, as well as impact ordinary lives.

The AI trade has worked so well for a reason — because the AI boom is real, and is supported by real earnings, and real growth potential.

But there are plenty of other catalysts that make the market outlook even more exciting.

Continued . . .

While progress on inflation had slowed at the end of last year, recent inflation reports show that the path back down to the Fed’s 2% target has resumed.

Last month’s Consumer Price Index (CPI, retail inflation) showed core inflation (ex-food & energy) at 2.8% y/y, down from last month’s 3.1%.

The Producer Price Index (PPI, wholesale inflation) came in at 3.3% y/y, down from the previous month’s 3.4%.

And while the latest Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index (the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge), ticked up to 2.8% y/y from the previous 2.7%, it was not up by much. And the report prior to that was down.

While everyone agrees that inflation is still too high, Fed Chair Jerome Powell has acknowledged the “significant progress” that’s been made on inflation, while maintaining a “strong, but not overheated” jobs market.

Even though the Fed is not ready to cut interest rates again just yet, citing uncertainty around tariffs, the Fed is still forecasting 2 more rate cuts this year (presumably by 25 basis points each).

And that comes on the heels of the 100 basis points they cut last year (all within 4 short months).

Plus, when interest rates begin to fall again, you can be sure plenty of money tied up in money markets will find their way back into equities, further supporting stock prices.

What’s Going On With Q1’25 GDP Estimates?

Last month, the market was suddenly spooked by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s GDPNow estimate for Q1’25 GDP. Previously pegged at a positive growth rate of 2.3%, it was slashed to -2.8%. (Currently, it’s at -2.2%.)

The dramatic downshift from positive to negative caught many off guard.

But I should mention that there are seasonal factors that can weigh on Q1’s GDP. In fact, Q1 is considered the weakest quarter of the year.

We also have the potential skewing of a rush of imports that came in, in an effort to beat the new tariffs. (It should be noted that an increase in imports vs. exports can depress GDP numbers.)

That being said, the huge swing from a gain of +2.3% to a decline of -2.2% is worth noting. And shouldn’t be summarily dismissed. But there are factors exacerbating this. And investors should keep that in mind.

With that, you are going to hear the word recession more and more in the coming weeks and months.

But Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick has said there will “absolutely not” be a recession.

What’s important to note is that the underlying economy is strong. And that was underscored, once again, just two Friday’s ago, by the latest Employment Situation report. It wasn’t gangbusters. But it was another better-than-expected 228,000 new jobs. That’s not recessionary. On the contrary, that’s indicative of growth.

And it echoes Mr. Powell’s sentiments, as mentioned earlier, of a “strong, but not overheated” labor market.

The Earnings Outlook Is For Growth

Ironically, while everyone frets over tariffs and the drop in Q1 GDP estimates, the earnings picture looks excellent.

Q1’25 S&P earnings are forecast to show a 6.8% increase.

Q2 is forecast at 8.6%.

Q3 is forecast at a whopping 15.6%.

And Q4 is forecast at 9.8%.

So, while recession fears have suddenly become a concern, none of that is showing up in the aggregate earnings estimates.

And earnings are the key driver of stock prices.

Then couple that with the recent fall in stock prices, and the valuations now look like bargains.

Do What Works

So how do you fully take advantage of the market right now?

By implementing tried and true methods that work to find the best stocks.

For example, did you know that stocks with a Zacks Rank #1 Strong Buy have beaten the market in 29 of the last 37 years (a 78% win ratio) with an average annual return of more than 24% per year? That’s more than 2 x the S&P, including 4 bear markets and 4 recessions. And consistently beating the market year after year can add up to a lot more than just two times the returns.

It also killed in 1995 with a 52.6% gain; 1996 with 40.9%; 1997 with 43.9%; 1998 with 19.5%; and 1999 with 45.9%. It was also up in 2000 by 14.3% while the S&P was down.

Did you also know that stocks in the top 50% of Zacks Ranked Industries outperform those in the bottom 50% by a factor of 2 to 1? There’s a reason why they say that half of a stock’s price movement can be attributed to the group that it’s in. Because it’s true!

Those two things will give any investor a huge probability of success and put you well on your way to beating the market.

But you’re not there yet, as those two items alone will only narrow down a field of 10,000 stocks to the top 100 or so. Way too many to trade at once.

So, the next step is to get that list down to the best 5-10 stocks that you can buy.

Proven Profitable Strategies

Picking the best stocks is a lot easier when there’s a proven, profitable method to do it.

And by concentrating on what has proven to work in the past, you’ll have a better idea as to what your probability of success will be now and in the future.

Of course, this won’t preclude you from ever having another losing trade. But if your stock picking strategy picks winners more often than losers, you can feel confident that your next trade will have a high probability of success.

Here are a few of my favorite strategies that have regularly crushed the market year after year.

New Highs: Studies have shown that stocks making new highs have a tendency of making even higher highs. And this strategy proves it. The alignment of positive price action and strong fundamentals creates all the necessary conditions to see these stocks soar to even greater heights. Over the last 25 years (2000 through 2024), using a 1-week rebalance, the average annual return has been 37.6% vs. the S&P’s 7.7%, which is 4.9 x the market.

Small-Cap Growth: Small-caps have historically outperformed the market time and time again. Often these are newer companies in the early part of their growth cycle, which is when they grow the fastest. This strategy combines the aggressive growth of small-caps with our special blend of growth and valuation metrics for explosive returns. Over the last 25 years (2000 through 2024), using a 1-week rebalance, the average annual return has been 44.3%, beating the market by 5.8 x the returns.

Filtered Zacks Rank 5: This strategy leverages the Zacks Rank #1 Strong Buys, and adds two time-tested filters to narrow the list of stocks down to five high probability picks each week. Over the last 25 years (2000 through 2024), using a 1-week rebalance, the average annual return has been 48.4%, which is 6.3 x the market.

The best part about these strategies (aside from the returns) is that all of the testing and hard work has already been done. There’s no guesswork involved. Just point and click and start getting into better stocks on your very next trade.

Where To Start

There’s a simple way to add a big performance advantage for your stock-picking success. It’s called the Zacks Method for Trading: Home Study Course

With this fun, interactive online program, you can master the Zacks Rank in your own home and at your own pace. You don’t have to attend a single class or seminar.

Zacks Method for Trading covers the investment ideas I just shared and guides you to better trading step by step, plus so much more.

You’ll quickly see how to get the most out of the proven system that has more than doubled the market for over three decades. Discover what kind of trader you are, how to find stocks with the highest probability of success, and how to trade them so you can consistently beat the market no matter where stock prices are headed.

You’ll get the formulas behind our top-performing strategies suited for a variety of different trading styles.

The best of these strategies produced gains up to +307.1% in 2024 while the S&P 500 gained +27.4%.¹

The course will also help you create and test your own stock-picking strategies.

Today is the perfect time to get in. I’m giving participants free hardbound copies of my book, Finding #1 Stocks, a $49.95 value. Its 300 pages unfold virtually every trading secret I’ve learned over the last 25 years to beat the market.

Please note: Copies of the book are limited and your opportunity to get one free ends Saturday, April 19, unless we run out of books first. If you’re interested, I encourage you to check this out now.

Find out more about Zacks Method for Trading: Home Study Course »

Thanks and good trading,

Kevin

Zacks Executive VP Kevin Matras is responsible for all of our trading and investing services. He developed many of our most powerful market-beating strategies and directs the Zacks Method for Trading: Home Study Course.