RJ Hamster
$1 Billion Money Manager: “Trump’s About to RUIN Elon’s…
Donald Trump never forgets an insult. And according to this Mar-a-Lago regular, he believes Trump’s about to take his revenge on Elon Musk. How? By releasing a radical new AI model more than 1,000X more powerful than Elon’s Grok… just in time to leapfrog Elon’s SpaceX IPO.
What’s Trump up to? And how could it send shares of one AI stock (not SpaceX) soaring?
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BONUS: AMD +59% YTD, then +20% more. I’ve seen this. 📊
AMD: $10.25 Billion Quarter. The 2000 Feel Is Back.
Data center revenue up 57%. Stock up 59% year-to-date before the print. The numbers are real. The multiple is the conversation.
The quarter was real. $10.253 billion in Q1 revenue, up 38% year-over-year. Data center: $5.8 billion, up 57%. Non-GAAP EPS $1.37 versus $1.29 expected. Q2 guide: $11.2 billion, roughly $1.1 billion ahead of where consensus sat Monday night. Lisa Su said on the call that customer forecasts for 2027 are coming in “above initial plans.” AMD entered last night up 59% year-to-date. It opened Wednesday up another 20%.
I’m not here to dismiss the print. AMD’s data center business is the most legitimate AI infrastructure story in semiconductors outside of NVDA — and NVDA trades at 35x trailing sales. The MI450 GPU is deployed at scale. Meta committed to up to 6 gigawatts of AMD Instinct silicon across multiple product generations. Server CPU total addressable market forecast: growing over 35% annually to $120 billion by 2030. These aren’t investor-day slides. The $5.8 billion is real cash revenue from paying hyperscalers.
Here’s what I keep returning to. March 2000. Cisco was the world’s largest company, around $550 billion in market cap. They’d just printed a quarter that looked like this one — revenue growth north of 50%, guidance above consensus, CEO on the call with phrases like “strong and increasing confidence.” I traded through those earnings. I don’t think AMD is Cisco. The internet was real; AI infrastructure is real. But the multiple compression that followed wasn’t because the business failed. It happened because the stock had already priced in the next four years. Same chart, different ticker.
AMD went into last night at roughly 42x forward earnings. Today’s 20% gap closes somewhere around 50x. At 57% data center growth, that’s not absurd — if the growth sustains. The question the tape can’t answer yet: does the Q2 guide reflect a durable step-change or a near-term inventory build from hyperscalers pulling forward capacity? Tom Lee will point to $11.2 billion and tell you $250 is in play. I’d want to see the Q3 guide before I put weight on that.
“The numbers are real. Cisco’s numbers were real too. The question is always what multiple the numbers deserve — and that answer doesn’t come from the earnings release.”
Su said AMD is working with supply chain partners to “meaningfully increase” wafer and back-end capacity. That’s TSMC language. If AMD is genuinely capacity-constrained, the guide is the floor, not the ceiling — the legitimate bull case. The bear case runs parallel: Microsoft has Maia, Google has TPU v5, Amazon has Trainium. Custom silicon, all in production. AMD’s customer list is real. The competitive pressure from that customer list building alternatives in-house is also real.
The Crowded Position and the Rate Headwind
AMD was up 59% year-to-date before last night’s print. That means everyone who was going to own it already owned it going into the quarter. The 20% gap this morning tells you the position wasn’t as crowded as PLTR’s was Monday — PLTR beat everything and fell 2% because the long book was maximum. AMD’s gap is real, which means short interest (roughly 15% of float heading into Tuesday’s close) is covering this morning. That’s a one-day tailwind, not a thesis.
The 30-year Treasury sits at 5.03%. Every point on the long end costs something on a 50x forward earnings stock — that’s the denominator shift that matters and that the earnings release doesn’t address. High-multiple growth held in Q1 while rates drifted. Holding at 5% on the 30-year is a different test. Waller dissented at the last FOMC. Greg Abel is sitting on $397 billion in cash and buying nothing. The bond market is telling you the truth. AMD’s print was exceptional. Whether 50x forward earnings captures that truth is the question I’m watching.
What to watch: AMD’s gap hold. Above $200 through the first 30 minutes: the continuation trade is active and $215 is the next target. Below $185 on the first reversal: the print was priced in and not much else. The bigger forcing function: NVDA on May 21. If Huang’s data center guide matches the trajectory AMD’s numbers imply, the AI infrastructure thesis is clean and AMD’s multiple can expand. If NVDA guides cautiously — same problem as PLTR, different ticker, different week.
— David Mercer, Senior Market Analyst
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