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🦉 The Night Owl Newsletter for April 2nd
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The IPO Market Is Quiet… But Not for Long (From Darwin)
Valuation to the Moon? SpaceX Gears Up for IPO Liftoff With a Confidential Filing
Written by Jessica Mitacek
All eyes are on the initial public offering (IPO) calendar as one of 2026’s most highly anticipated debuts prepares for its launch.
On April 1, CNBC reported that Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) and Neuralink CEO Elon Musk confidentially filed an IPO for SpaceX with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The company could be listed on an exchange as soon as June.
Founded in 2002, the aerospace manufacturer and space transport services company is best known for the deployment of its subsidiary Starlink’s satellites.
SpaceX is reportedly seeking to raise up to $75 billion in its IPO, which would be three times the largest IPO in U.S. history. That distinction currently belongs to Alibaba Group (NYSE: BABA), which went public in Sept. 2014 after raising $21.8 billion.
At its current valuation, this would make Musk the first CEO of two trillion-dollar publicly traded companies.
Here is what potential investors and Musk enthusiasts need to know.
A Massive Valuation and Vertically Integrated Business Model
While the satellite stock space may seem like it is getting as crowded as low-Earth orbit (LEO), the collective market caps of the publicly traded companies that call the industry home pale in comparison to what SpaceX will bring to the table. Much of that can be attributed to the company’s multi-layered, vertically integrated business model.
Following the company’s Feb. 2 merger with xAI—the artificial intelligence (AI), social media, and tech firm also led by Musk—SpaceX was valued at $1.25 trillion. Its foundational business segment has positioned the company as the world’s leading launch services provider. That includes SpaceX’s SmallSat Rideshare Program, which provides cost-effective space access for small satellites by launching multiple payloads simultaneously on a single Falcon 9 rocket.
Meanwhile, the company has received notable media coverage for putting more than 10,000 Starlink satellites into LEO since May 2019, providing high-speed, low-latency internet around the globe. Unlike its launch services segment, Starlink provides SpaceX with a subscription-based recurring revenue model that generates the kind of cash flow that investors tend to reward with bullish buying.
Year-end Starlink forecasts for 2026 include:
- 16.8 million subscribers, good for more than 33% year-over-year (YOY) growth
- $11.3 billion in consumer revenue, good for more than 10% YOY growth, with around 85% of that being recurring revenue
- Approximately 133 Starlink mission launches, good for more than 11% YOY growth, deploying a total of 3,500 satellites, good for more than 23% YOY growth
- $20 billion in total revenue, $14 billion in earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization; and $8.1 billion in pro forma free cash flow
The merger with xAI adds an additional component, the goal of which could be to present a unified balance sheet to prospective investors in the lead-up to SpaceX’s IPO. The resulting conglomerate means that xAI gains access to SpaceX’s infrastructure and cash flow, while SpaceX can accelerate its integration of AI-powered, space-based computing.
SpaceX’s Massive Government Contracts Point to Foundational Baseline Revenue
Beyond the company’s Starlinksubsidiary and its recurring revenue model, SpaceX has grown into a massive defense contractor.
Since 2008, the company has been awarded more than $24.4 billion in federal government contracts. Of those, only around $9 billion has been paid out, leaving approximately $15.4 billion remaining in long-term obligations for future missions through 2030.
Most of those contracts have come via NASA and the Department of Defense, including projects earmarked for the Space Force, Air Force, and numerous U.S. intelligence agencies.
SpaceX’s work with NASA involves the commercial crew program for transporting astronauts to the International Space Station (ISS) via Crew Dragon, the Artemis Program, commercial resupply services for delivering cargo to the ISS, and the development of the ISS deorbit vehicle, which will escort the multinational research laboratory safely to the Pacific Ocean in 2031.
Wall Street’s SpaceX Expectations
Despite the enormity of the IPO, SpaceX’s valuation upon going public could be more than 90 times its 2025 revenue. Early estimates suggest a final valuation that could see shares debut at the $400 level, if not higher.
That stock price could be justified if the company is able to maintain its minimal debt load. In the wake of its xAI merger, SpaceX is focusing on a clean balance sheet in the run-up to its IPO. That suggests that, unlike Musk’s other companies which have carried massive amounts of debt, SpaceX could sustain strong margins and healthy cash flow from its multi-layered business model. READ THIS STORY ONLINE
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3 AI ETFs That Let You Invest in the Entire AI Boom at Once
Written by Nathan Reiff
With the AI landscape constantly shifting, investors may not feel confident selecting individual companies in the space to target. Fortunately, a selective investment in a handful of AI-focused exchange-traded funds (ETFs) can offer broad exposure to this fast-growing space, including everything from infrastructure to hardware, applications, and energy, all in just a few funds.
By casting a wide net with the AI funds below, investors do not put themselves in the position of betting exclusively on either big-name tech companies with AI operations or lesser-known firms with significant potential but also a high degree of risk. Rather, the diversification these funds offer can provide broad exposure, at least until such a time as the industry has matured and new individual names have cemented themselves as leaders.
Global AI Exposure, But a Modestly Sized Portfolio
A fund exploring the global AI space, the iShares Future AI & Tech ETF (NYSEARCA: ARTY) aims to be a one-stop shop investment for the AI value chain, with companies in the software, services, and infrastructure spaces, among others.
What may keep ARTY from being a singular AI ETF in many portfolios is its fairly narrow basket: the fund holds just over 50 stocks, about two-thirds of which are based in the United States. The remainder comes from Taiwan, South Korea, France, and a number of other countries.
ARTY’s top holdings lean on hardware companies like AMD (NASDAQ: AMD)and NVIDIA (NASDAQ: NVDA). This approach has paid off, as the fund has returned more than 40% in the last year, although it is down slightly year-to-date (YTD) in 2026. For an expense ratio of 0.47%, many investors may find the fund’s performance history quite compelling.
An Active Approach for BAI Means Greater Flexibility and Responsiveness
Although its portfolio is of a similar size to ARTY’s, the iShares A.I. Innovation and Tech Active ETF (NYSEARCA: BAI) uses an active management approach that differs fundamentally from the fund above. BAI focuses on global AI and tech stocks across market capitalizations and enjoys a higher average trading volume than many other AI funds (its one-month average volume is around 2.8 million).
It’s true that BAI is not a pure-play AI fund, and investors will find some companies that utilize AI but that are not typically thought of as “AI stocks” here. In this way, the fund may appeal to those with a broader tech mandate or with a willingness to expand beyond the most common AI names. BAI’s international focus may also enhance its appeal for this reason.
Investors should beware that there is some overlap between the portfolios of ARTY and BAI. Investing in both funds may inadvertently overexposure an investor to some of the bigger names in the AI space—think companies like NVIDIA, for example. With its active approach, however, BAI can be nimble and adjust its holdings quickly in case of shifts in the industry that suddenly favor new companies; this is a benefit over ARTY and other passively managed funds that rebalance periodically. The fund’s annual fee of 0.55% is also fairly modest for an active ETF, and it is up about 45% in the last year.
A Nuclear Strategy That Has Paid Off in a Big Way
While AI draws energy from a host of sources, nuclear energy is increasingly a key supplier for data centers throughout the country. The Range Nuclear Renaissance Index ETF (NYSEARCA: NUKZ) is not an AI-centered ETF exactly, but its focus on advanced nuclear reactors, utilities, construction, services, and fuel means that it is necessarily tied to the AI industry.
For an expense ratio of 0.85%, NUKZ offers exposure to close to 50 global nuclear energy stocks, including some non-U.S. names that are likely to be less well-known to domestic investors. Aside from an outsized position in Cameco Corp. (NYSE: CCJ), invested assets are also fairly evenly distributed across much of the portfolio.
As a specialized fund with a fairly niche strategy, NUKZ is somewhat more expensive than the other ETFs on this list. However, investors may be swayed based on its recent performance: NUKZ is up over 60% in the last year, and slightly YTD, as interest in non-fossil fuel energy companies surges amid the war in Iran.
The fund’s unique focus also means it has modest assets under management and one-month average trading volume compared to the ETFs above, although at about $754 million and 93,000, respectively, investors should not face extreme liquidity concerns here. READ THIS STORY ONLINE
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CrowdStrike Stock Drops on AI Fears—Is This a Buying Opportunity?
Written by Chris Markoch
CrowdStrike Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: CRWD) has heard the words Anthropic or Claude Code more than it would like. CRWD stock is down about 16% in 2026. Most of that drop had to do with the general malaise with frothy technology stocks.
Just as CRWD stock was beginning to hit its stride, it got derailed by not one, but two events tied to Anthropic. The first came in late February, when Anthropic launched Claude Code Security. That launch was right around CrowdStrike’s Q4 earnings report for its 2026 fiscal year.
Then in March, details came out about Claude Mythos. It’s an unreleased model that is more powerful than Claude Code Security. The source code behind Claude Code was also released.
The concern is that artificial intelligence (AI) can now handle a company’s cybersecurity. If true, that would mean a drastic rethinking of the pricing power and margins for CrowdStrike’s Falcon platform.
Sell the Rumor, Buy the News?
Markets love a good panic, and Anthropic handed them one on a platter. Claude Code Security was a research preview tool designed to identify high-severity software vulnerabilities and suggest fixes. Investors read that as an AI-native security product that could substitute for some of the work cybersecurity vendors sell today, which triggered a broad selloff in names.
Then the news leaked about Mythos as a major leap in capability and one that posed “unprecedented cybersecurity risks.” That amplified the same narrative: if Anthropic’s models can both defend and attack more effectively, the market may need to reprice what security vendors actually own as a moat.
But time is doing what it does, and that’s giving the truth time to come out. That paints a more realistic story about what Claude Code is and is not.
Claude Code Security is a research preview, strong on static code analysis but blind to runtime threats, cloud sprawl, or adaptive attacker moves. By contrast, CrowdStrike’s Falcon platform doesn’t just scan—it’s a full-stack platform for prevention, detection, and response across endpoints, identities, and networks. Anthropic’s stumbles underscore the irony: leaks like these prove why robust security matters more than ever, especially as AI empowers smarter phishing and exploits.
CrowdStrike’s AI-native roots let it harness these models rather than fear them. CEO George Kurtz calls it a breakout edge—agentic AI threats demand platforms that automate at scale. Post-earnings volume screamed capitulation; the 5.7% snapback by April 1 shows buyers piling in.
CRWD Stock May Be Running Out of Sellers
Whenever investors begin to favor cybersecurity stocks again, CRWD stock will be a beneficiary. But for now, investors are in a state of limbo. On the one hand, the stock appears to be recovering, but that may keep new money out. On the other hand, analysts are lowering their price targets.
To be fair, many analysts still believe CRWD stock has 20% or more upside. But it was just a month ago that many price targets for the stock were at or above $600. The CrowdStrike analyst forecast on MarketBeat shows no recent price targets with a “6” handle.
However, the upshot from the Claude Code fallout isn’t an indictment of CrowdStrike’s business model. In fact, it may remind investors of why the company’s AI-native Falcon platform makes the company well-positioned for managing the threat matrix from agentic AI.
That could make CRWD stock a buy. The high selling volume after the company’s earnings report in February may have been a sign of capitulation, but buyers have been coming in, and the stock is now up moderately over the last month.

Claude: Reality Check, Not Existential Threat
To put what’s happening to CRWD stock in terms sport fans can understand, CrowdStrike was the team that was on an unprecedented winning streak. Analytics and conventional wisdom both made it clear that the streak can’t go on, but it did…until it didn’t. But with CrowdStrike as with sports teams, the next result isn’t a prolonged losing streak; it’s usually a reversion to the mean.
The mean for CrowdStrike is a best-of-breed stock in a high-demand sector. But first, it’s getting back to normal.
Normal may be painful for investors who bought CrowdStrike at or near the top. But the company’s strong annual recurring revenue (ARR) and growing customer base suggest that time is all CRWD stock needs.
Analysts dialed back targets from $600+ to the $400s, but 20% upside lingers. ARR climbs, customers stick, and cyber spend surges amid rising risks. This isn’t a streak snapped—it’s a pullback to fair value in a must-have sector. Patient hands get rewarded. READ THIS STORY ONLINE
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