3 Big Earnings Misses: Is It Time to Buy the Dip?

Written by Dan Schmidt

Earnings season for Q3 2025 is well underway, but the exuberance from Q2 has faded. According to FactSet, more than 80% of S&P 500 companies reporting so far have beaten analysts’ expectations with their Q3 results, but the strength of those beats has been underwhelming. The average beat was just 5% above targets, significantly lower than both the five-year average of 8.4% and the 10-year average of 7%.

Of course, one quarter doesn’t equate to a trend, and talking about the strength of a 5% vs. 8% earnings beat is a bit like Goldilocks discussing porridge preferences.

Markets have been looking tired over the last two weeks, and investors are on alert for signs that trouble is brewing. One red flag: the companies that haven’t beaten Q3 earnings expectations have been getting crushed, especially those with consumer-facing businesses.

Pinterest Inc. (NYSE: PINS), Match Group Inc. (NASDAQ: MTCH), and Live Nation Entertainment Inc. (NYSE: LYV) are three companies that recently reported lackluster earnings, leaving investors wondering if it is a one-time misstep or a sign of deeper trouble.

Pinterest: Ad Weakness Outweighs AI Growth

Share of social media discovery platform Pinterest plunged nearly 22% following a rough Q3 earnings report on Nov. 4.

On the surface, this report didn’t appear to be a massive miss, but a closer examination of the numbers revealed several potential headwinds.

The company missed earnings per share (EPS) estimates by just four cents (38 cents reported vs. 42 cents expected), and revenue of $1.05 billion matched the anticipated figure. Monthly average users surpassed 600 million for the first time, and the company’s AI-bot called Pinterest Assistant increased sales conversions.

So why did the stock drop more than 20%?

Pinterest might seem like a tech stock, but it’s really more consumer discretionary, and tariffs (especially on furniture) have indirectly hurt the company’s business model. Pinterest relies on ad sales for revenue, and the company’s Q3 report noted that ad pricing declined 24% year-over-year (YOY). Pinterest’s focus on home design is negatively impacted by furniture tariffs, which have increased prices on many popular items and reduced the conversion rate from clicks to sales.

The chart paints an ugly picture as well. PINS had been stuck in range-bound trading, but now the stock is back to Liberation Day levels, and a Death Cross looks imminent on the 50- and 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs).

More than a dozen analysts lowered their price targets on PINS last week, making it difficult to recommend this stock until fundamental or technical conditions improve.

Match Group: Mixed Signals Below the Surface

Match Group is the company behind a host of popular dating apps, including Tinder, Hinge, OKCupid, and its namesake, Match.com.

The company released its Q3 2025 earnings on Nov. 4, reporting EPS of 82 cents, which missed the expected 91 cents. The total Q3 revenue figure of $914 represented just a 2% YOY increase and narrowly missed expectations.

While Hinge’s growth was highlighted on the conference call, Tinder has stagnated, and paying users have declined by 5% YOY.

MTCH shares are down 10% over the last three months, but the chart indicates some potential upside. The decline was halted at the 200-day SMA, which appears to be strengthening as support. The MACD is also trending upward, indicating that the stock may have bottomed, at least in the short term.

Live Nation: Don’t Look Back in Anger (After Taking Profits)

Live Nation investors experienced a profitable summer, with the stock rising from $115 to $175 between March and October. But the good times are no longer rolling following a poor Q3 earnings release and a series of troubling technical patterns.

Live Nation reported a significant top-line miss on Nov. 4, with EPS of just 73 cents, significantly below the expected $1.54. Revenue also fell short of expectations by more than 4%.

Management cited several headwinds during the call, including cases against Ticketmaster from both the FTC and the DOJ, and the surge in stadium show sales is likely to be limited.

Before the earnings miss, the stock had been hinting at trouble ahead. Shares broke the 50-day SMA in September, marking a significant move as the MACD confirmed the downward shift.

Following the earnings report, the stock drifted below the 200-day SMA, hammering home the bearish trend. Live Nation might need another Taylor Swift tour to reverse this momentum.

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Is Robinhood’s 11% Post-Earnings Fall a Buy-the-Dip Opportunity?

Written by Leo Miller

Shares of Robinhood Markets (NASDAQ: HOOD) just took their biggest hit in quite a while. On Nov. 6, shares closed down by nearly 11% as investors reacted to the firm’s Q3 2025 earnings. This was the stock’s largest single-day fall since Mar. 10, after regulators ordered the company to pay millions in fines and restitution.

Despite the finance company’s post-earnings fall, shares remain up well over 200% in 2025. So, where does Robinhood stand after this sell-off? Could there now be an opportunity in this high-flying name? Let’s break down the firm’s latest financials to explore this question.

Robinhood Doubles Revenue, But Devils Hide in the Details

In Q3, Robinhood delivered an astounding revenue growth rate of 100%. Sales boomed to $1.27 billion, considerably beating estimates of $1.15 billion, or 81% growth. This was the company’s second-fastest revenue growth rate in the last 12 quarters, only behind 115% in Q4 2024, which was driven by crypto trading after the election of President Trump.

The company’s diluted earnings per share (EPS) more than tripled to 61 cents, exceeding expectations. Adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization margin (EBITDA) also impressed, increasing to 58% from 42% a year ago.

Transaction revenues stole the show, rising by 129%. Crypto was a giant driver of this, with revenues rising 300% from the previous year. Equity and options revenues were also strong, rising 132% and 50%, respectively.

Importantly, the company continues to extract more and more revenue from each of its users. Average revenue per user of $191 increased 82% versus Q3 2024.

However, beneath these headline numbers were a few red flags. First off, the company’s crypto revenue was actually lower than expected. Given that crypto is such a significant driver of the company’s growth engine, this disproportionately affected how the markets viewed the results.

Additionally, Robinhood’s diluted EPS beat was significantly inflated due to having a lower-than-expected effective tax rate. As it wasn’t indicative of underlying outperformance, the EPS beat did not particularly impress investors. Furthermore, the company increased its expense outlook for 2025. These three factors were likely contributors to the stock’s fall. Crypto assets also fell on Nov. 6, exacerbating the drop in Robinhood.

Robinhood Continues to Invest And Expand Revenue Generation

On the positive side, Robinhood continues to show its ability to diversify away from reliance on crypto. The company now has 11 distinct business lines that are each generating $100 million or more in annual revenue.

Prediction markets are the latest addition to this. The company says that it has doubled prediction markets’ volume every quarter since the 2024 election. Notably, Robinhood says it is increasing its 2025 expense guidance to invest in prediction markets and Robinhood Ventures, the tool that will allow users to invest in private companies. Clearly, prediction markets are already doing well, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see Ventures take off as well. Thus, it makes sense for Robinhood to invest in these areas to create a strong position.

Analysts Raise Targets on HOOD Despite 11% Drop

The MarketBeat consensus price target on Robinhood now stands at just over $132. This figure implies only around 4% upside potential. However, analysts who issued price target updates on Nov. 6 increased their targets by an average of 13%.

This came as shares fell 11%, a divergence that clearly indicates a potential opportunity in Robinhood shares.

Additionally, the average price target among these updated forecasts is $157.50.

This suggests that shares could rise by 24%, a vast improvement over the consensus target.

Despite this bullish signal, it is crucial to consider that the success of the stock market and crypto correlates with most of Robinhood’s revenue drivers.

A downturn in these assets would hit Robinhood shares particularly hard. Still, Robinhood is continuing to find new ways to grow, and its legacy revenue drivers are also expanding rapidly. Its long-term outlook remains strong, and with the stock down only 17% from its all-time high, a deeper correction could take place soon.

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AI Demand Is Coming—Is Microchip Technology Ready?

Written by Thomas Hughes

It’s taking time to show in the results, but Microchip Technology (NASDAQ: MCHP) is well-positioned to benefit from long-term demand for AI.

The story in 2025 is that of end-market normalization and signs of improving momentum as the business nears a critical pivot. Revenue growth is expected to resume in the current quarter, and there is reason to believe demand trends will improve over time.

Not only have end markets normalized, but AI-focused demand is broadening into a wider array of industries that will require Microchip Technology’s embedded semiconductor and power control products.

Key developments in its fiscal Q2 included the launch of new products, including the Gen 6 PCIe switch. The switch is explicitly designed to handle intense data center workloads, enabling quick communication between CPUs, GPUs, and storage devices. Initial market response is positive, and production is expected to reach commercial scale by mid-2026, with a ramp-up into year-end.

Despite near-term volatility and conservative guidance, Microchip Technology’s alignment with AI infrastructure growth, operational resilience, and high institutional ownership position it for an earnings rebound and stock recovery into 2026.

Microchip Technology: Outperformance Overshadowed by Tepid Guidance

Microchip Technology reported a solid Q2, despite headwinds, with net revenue of $1.14 billion, down only 1.7% year over year. Results were driven by strengths in North America, Asia, and Europe, with the first two up sequentially and the latter flat, which execs noted as a good result given the calendar period. Data centers and AI were also cited as drivers of strength, contributing to a 6% system-wide sequential gain and a robust outlook for next year.

Executives noted that guidance was provided only for a single quarter, but then stated that strong growth was expected in the first three quarters of FY2026.

Margin news is also good. The company’s focus on operational quality, cost control, and spending helped to offset revenue deleverage and other headwinds. The net result is that margins contracted but less than expected, leaving the adjusted EPS at 35 cents, two cents better than MarketBeat’s consensus estimate.

Management also expects quality improvements to stick, setting the business up for a leveraged earnings rebound when growth resumes.

Guidance is a mixed bag. The company forecasts growth to resume in FQ3, but the guidance falls short of the consensus and soured market sentiment. Analysts, who rate the stock at a consensus Moderate Buy with a bullish bias, are lowering their price targets following the release, creating a headwind for the stock.

However, the reduction aligns with the consensus estimate, which forecasts a 25% upside as of early November. In this scenario, tepid guidance caps Q4 gains but sets the stock up for a robust rebound in upcoming quarters as growth resumes and accelerates.

The signal for investors will be the institutional activity. Institutions are bullish on this market, commanding more than 90% of the shares, but they sold on balance in October. This creates an insurmountable market force for retail investors, which is likely to persist as the quarter wears on.

The buy signal will be triggered when institutional activity reverts to accumulation, as evidenced by the price action.

Microchip’s Dividend: A Risk and an Incentive

Microchip Technology’s dividend is an incentive for investors, yielding more than 3% in early November. However, it is also a risk, as it exceeds 100% of the FY2026 earnings outlook.

The offset is that the balance sheet is a fortress, capable of sustaining the payment until growth resumes, and the FY2027 forecast is substantial. It assumes earnings will grow by more than 75% to produce a 70% payout ratio, which is sustainable for this business.

Price action following the release highlights the risks. The stock dropped more than 8% to a critical support level. This level is likely to be strong given the institutional interest, but may not bounce until a potent catalyst emerges. That may not happen until early to mid-2026, unless there is movement on trade or the FOMC cuts interest rates, which could catalyze global economic activity.

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