RJ Hamster
🦉 The Night Owl Newsletter for November 26th
Unsubscribe The 2026 Crypto Reset Is Coming (From Darwin)Why Gold Loves Trump as Much as Trump Loves GoldWritten by Jordan ChusslerGold has had a banner year in 2025, gaining more than 58% and outperforming the market by leaps and bounds. For context, the S&P 500 is up about 14%, while Bitcoin has lost around 6% (with Bitcoin-leveraged stocks performing far worse than the crypto itself). Among precious metals, silver has outshone gold with a 78% year-to-date (YTD) gain. Still, gold appears well-positioned to sustain its rally into 2026—fueled in part by President Donald Trump’s return to power and the market’s reaction to his policies.Volatility Is Once Again on the RisePrecious metals enjoy strong runs during stretches of heightened volatility. That’s because volatility causes investors to engage in flights to safety, reallocating capital from riskier asset classes like stocks to safe-haven assets like gold. And volatility has been a hallmark of Trump’s second administration. From Inauguration Day to March 10, volatility—as measured by the Chicago Board Options Exchange’s CBOE Volatility Index (CBOE: VIX)—increased by 85% as rumors of the president’s tariff plans began to emerge. The VIX then pulled back 20% by the end of March, before skyrocketing to a five-year high during the market’s so-called tariff tantrum in April, when the index jumped 135% the first week of April. The index settled down by 70% by the end of September after the president walked back tariffs against numerous countries. But since then, it has increased 35%, raising concerns about another bout of heightened volatility through the end of the year. The SCOTUS Tariff Decision LoomsA critical legal development could further impact gold’s trajectory: the U.S. Supreme Court is currently reviewing whether Trump has the authority to impose tariffs without Congressional approval.If the Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump, tariffs—with or without congressional approval—remain, which would have the potential to further erode the purchasing power of the U.S. dollar and drive gold prices higher as a result. But if the court rules against Trump’s trade policies and the administration is forced to reverse its tariffs, that too could be a boon for gold. On Sunday, Fortune reported: “President Donald Trump’s administration is working behind the scenes on fallback options if the Supreme Court strikes down one of his major tariff authorities.” Any such moves are likely to sustain investor anxiety and, in turn, demand for safe-haven assets.Foreign Policy and Geopolitical Instability Drive Gold PricesDespite campaign pledges to reduce global conflict, Trump’s second term has not delivered meaningful geopolitical de-escalation. The Russia-Ukraine war, now entering its fourth year, continues with no end in sight.Additionally, despite Trump brokering a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas in early October, warfare in that corner of the world hasn’t ceased, with near-daily strikes continuing in the Gaza Strip. Since the Hamas attack on Oct. 7, 2023, the price of gold has risen more than 125%. More recently, the Trump administration has ramped up military activity in the Caribbean, signaling potential intervention in Venezuela. The USS Gerald R. Ford aircraft carrier is already positioned near the South American nation, and approximately 15,000 U.S. troops are in the region, with B-52 and B-1 bombers conducting simulated bombing exercises near Venezuela’s airspace—a significant escalation.Geopolitical instability has historically boosted demand for gold, and the current environment shows no signs of reversing that trend.Dollar Weakness and Rate Cuts Are Strengthening Gold’s Bull CaseTwo more price drivers for gold are currency devaluation and interest rate cuts. The U.S. dollar index is down nearly 8% from its YTD high, which it hit a week before Trump’s inauguration.Trump’s tariff announcements, which fueled the first stage of the USD’s decline this year, have raised inflation expectations.At the same time, soft economic data—including rising unemployment, increasing layoffs, and weak nonfarm payrolls—have already resulted in the Federal Reserve cutting rates twice this year.If current Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is replaced with a dovish Trump ally when his term ends in May 2026, more interest rate cuts could be in store next year.Lower interest rates would appeal to gold bugs, since interest rates and gold prices have a historically inverse relationship. When the former decreases, the latter tends to increase since yield-producing assets lose their luster in a lower-rate environment. In those cases, investors traditionally turn to gold for the precious metal’s upside potential. Both of those outcomes are likely if the Fed continues down a path of looser monetary policy. READ THIS STORY ONLINE5 Stocks That Could Double in 2026 (Ad)While everyone’s making predictions about what might happen in 2026, we’ve identified 5 stocks with catalysts that are already locked and loaded.These aren’t hopes or projections. These are scheduled events, signed contracts, and approved projects that will play out over the next 12 months. The difference between 100% gains and missing out completely? Positioning before 2026 arrives.CLICK HERE TO GET YOUR FREE COPY OF THIS REPORTGoogle’s Gemini 3 Sends Broadcom Soaring: TPUs Take Center StageWritten by Leo MillerOnce again, semiconductor giant Broadcom (NASDAQ: AVGO) is getting a boost from its longtime friend and Google parent company Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOGL). Investors have been increasingly connecting the dots between these two firms. This is because Google has developed its tensor processing chips (TPUs) with Broadcom for years.Google’s recent deal with Anthropic signals more TPU revenue for Broadcom. Analysts at Jefferies also named Broadcom as their top semiconductor pick over NVIDIA (NASDAQ: NVDA), citing the potential for increased TPU demand.Broadcom’s more than 4% surge on Nov. 19 is tied to its TPU technology and to Google’s release of its Gemini 3 artificial intelligence (AI) model, which is expected to benefit Broadcom going forward.Gemini 3: A Clear Validation of AVGO’s Semiconductor ProwessOn Nov. 18, Google released its latest family of large language models (LLMs): Gemini 3. Google calls the Gemini 3 family its most intelligent models yet. Key third-party sources seem to agree. Gemini 3 Pro, the flagship model version, is performing extremely well on LMArena, one of the go-to sources for comparing LLM performance.As of Nov. 25, the site rates Gemini 3 Pro as the best LLM. It also holds the top ranking on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index, with a score of 73. Overall, data coming from these authorities strongly indicate that Gemini 3 Pro may be the best LLM currently available.This is a significant win for Broadcom, considering that Google built Gemini 3 using TPUs. In fact, according to Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Mandeep Singh, Google trained Gemini 3 solely on TPUs. Google did not use any of NVIDIA’s graphics processing units (GPUs) in this process. This is a critical shift from the status quo, as other LLM developers rely heavily on NVIDIA GPUs to train their models.With Gemini 3 showing it is a top dog in LLM performance, Broadcom is, by extension, showing that its chips can compete very effectively with NVIDIA’s. This clearly strengthens Broadcom’s competitive positioning. It allows the firm to potentially capture a larger share of AI spending going forward.Gemini 3’s strong performance also means that Google’s partnership with Broadcom should keep expanding. This comes as it will likely continue to use TPUs to build future models.Broadcom Shares Close in on All-Time-HighsBroadcom’s connection with Google has helped the stock greatly in November. On Oct. 29, shares hit their all-time high closing price of around $386. After dipping significantly, the stock is nearly back to that level, closing at $385 on Nov. 25. The iShares Semiconductor ETF (NASDAQ: SOXX) and NVIDIA also peaked on Oct. 29. Since then, they are down 8% and 14%, respectively.Google is up 21% over that time, and the stock has become the market’s favorite Magnificent Seven name over recent months. Overall, Google shares have provided a total return of approximately 70% in 2025. This comes even though shares were essentially flat through mid-July. Google’s 2025 return is now by far the best among the Mag 7, with NVIDIA a distant second at around 32%. Notably, Broadcom shares have now delivered a total return of nearly 67%.Recent Price Targets Show Optimism as AVGO Earnings ApproachLooking ahead, Wall Street analysts are continuing to show confidence in Broadcom. The MarketBeat consensus price target of $374 indicates around 3% downside in shares. However, MarketBeat has tracked many analysts who have issued price targets since the beginning of October. Among them, the average target sits at $423, suggesting 10% upside potential. This average includes Raymond James Financial’s $420 price target. The company set this forecast on Nov. 20, two days after the release of Gemini 3.Broadcom will report earnings on Dec. 11 after the market close. Upcoming MarketBeat coverage will provide details on what to watch for going into the release. It is also worth paying attention to the results of Marvell Technology (NASDAQ: MRVL), which reports after the market close on Dec. 2. Marvell is one of Broadcom’s key competitors in custom AI chip design. READ THIS STORY ONLINEThe 2026 Crypto Reset Is Coming (Ad)As we approach 2026, Washington’s shift in tone toward crypto is becoming impossible to ignore. Regulators are moving toward clearer rules, institutions are re-entering the market, and macro pressures are pushing investors back toward decentralized assets. Analysts are calling this the beginning of a “2026 Crypto Reset.”CLICK TO READ: “THE 2026 CRYPTO RESET: 3 DIGITAL ASSETS POISED TO BENEFIT FROM TRUMP’S NEW POLICIES”Palantir Isn’t Just Riding the AI Boom—It’s Orchestrating ItWritten by Chris MarkochIf nothing else, the bullish earnings reports from Palantir Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ: PLTR) have seemed to put to rest the arguments that Palantir’s growth is unsustainable. The company is now solidly profitable with revenue coming in from U.S. government contracts, and more importantly, from an expanding list of commercial customers.However, like many technology stocks, Palantir’s growth was called into question due to concerns that the reality of the artificial intelligence (AI) boom wouldn’t measure up to its hype. This earnings season shows that the AI cycle is still in its early stages. No company brought that point home more than NVIDIA Corp. (NASDAQ: NVDA).Palantir is the software “layer” that sits on top of the AI infrastructure boom that NVIDIA is monetizing at the chip level. The robust, some might say insatiable, demand for the company’s GPUs should give investors a strong signal that Palantir’s growth story still has a long way to go.The Link Between NVIDIA’s Results and PalantirNVIDIA provides the hardware that makes AI applications possible. The company’s recent earnings report reaffirmed that companies and governments are not only investing in AI; they’re doing so aggressively.But there’s a difference between AI that’s possible and AI that’s useful. Every new AI cluster and large language model (LLM) needs a way to connect with real-world data, workflows, and decisions.That’s where Palantir comes in. The company’s Gotham, Foundry, and AIP platforms help its customers turn that compute into actionable use cases. The company has drawn rave reviews from customers ranging from supply chains, fraud detection, logistics, healthcare, and of course, defense targeting. Palantir’s value proposition is that it works through the bottleneck of data and orchestrates the data, models, and human users into better decision-making.Palantir Is Shaping the AI WaveA common criticism of Palantir in its first few years of being a publicly traded company was that it was overly reliant on its U.S. government contracts. However, in recent quarters, Palantir has been growing its U.S. commercial revenue at triple-digit rates. In fact, commercial customers now account for about 45% of the company’s total revenue.The company is adding customers at a breakneck pace. Much of that is due to the company’s go-to-market strategy of short AIP “boot camps” that quickly demonstrate the company’s value. The pace and the size of the deals have accelerated with AI-driven demand.The combination of rapid and strong growth off a large base in a category that’s expanding is exactly what long-term investors should look for in a stock that’s likely to compound. Plus, Palantir’s software-first model is asset-light. This creates high gross margins and operating margins that continue to expand. It also means new revenue falls disproportionately to the company’s bottom line.Is the Valuation Overhang a Real Concern?Despite the bullish outlook for future growth, many analysts look at a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio above 200x and believe that growth and more is already priced into the stock.But in an AI-first world, a counterargument could be made that analysts are systematically undervaluing Palantir’s earnings power. For example, some analysts believe the company’s 2026 adjusted earnings per share (EPS) could be several times higher than consensus estimates. They also foresee accelerating international adoption (which has been a weakness) and operating margins between 45% and 50%.Using those assumptions, PLTR stock would have a forward P/E between 20x and 40x. That’s still lofty, but in line with many high-quality software names that don’t match Palantir’s growth rate.Is $150 the Floor for PLTR Stock?On Nov. 21, PLTR stock closed around $154. In a short trading week marked by low volume, the stock has bounced higher. That means December will serve as confirmation of support at that level, or if the stock will continue to drop.From its all-time high of around $207 to the closing price of $154, Palantir stock is down about 26%. That’s not unusual; in fact, the stock fell further earlier this year. A richly valued stock like Palantir will tend to have a sharp drawdown on bearish sentiment, regardless of its earnings.However, those pullbacks have served as corrections inside a powerful uptrend that’s still being driven by strong and improving fundamentals. That story remains in place, which is why this pullback is a buying opportunity. READ THIS STORY ONLINEThe $1 deal disappears at midnight. (Ad)Don’t Leave Without Claiming Your $1 Black Friday Deal Discover how AI can help you trade smarter. One dollar. No commitments. UNLOCK THE DEALMore StoriesWarner Bros. Sale Rumors Heat Up: What Investors Need to Know5 Stocks to Buy Before Santa Claus Comes to TownThe most exciting new vehicle I’ve seen in 15 years (Ad)These 2 Energy Titans Just Scored Major Wins to Close Out NovemberWill the S&P 500 Rally in December? These 3 Signals Point to a Big Move AheadHistory Says These are 3 Stocks to Buy for DecemberWhy Are Insiders Are Dumping Shares of Robinhood, Stryker, and Mercury Systems?The Night Owl is a financial newsletter that provides in-depth market analysis on stocks of interest to individual investors. Published by MarketBeat and Early Bird Publishing, The Night Owl is delivered around 9:00 PM Eastern Sunday through Thursday. If you give a hoot about the market, The Night Owl is the newsletter for you.  View as a Web PageIf you have questions or concerns about your subscription, please don’t hesitate to email our U.S. based support team at contact@marketbeat.com.Unsubscribe © 2006-2025 MarketBeat Media, LLC. 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