RJ Hamster
🦉 The Night Owl Newsletter for November 18th
Unsubscribe $4,200 gold is nice … but here’s what most gold bugs are missing (From Weiss Ratings)What’s on the Thanksgiving Table? A Stock Pick for Every CourseWritten by Chris MarkochEvery year, around this time, consumers hear about how much their Thanksgiving dinner will cost compared to the previous year. Whether that number is higher or lower impacts our wallets. Here’s the bad news. Over the last month, food prices have begun to rise slightly. That may be coming as producers pass some tariff-related costs on to the consumer. It may also reflect the impact of the Federal Reserve’s rate-cutting cycle that began in September.But for investors, that data could be a buy signal for the right stock. Remember, there’s a company behind each of these products. For publicly traded companies, higher prices could lift their earnings and their stock prices. That data won’t be reported until 2026, which is why now is the time to consider adding these stocks to your portfolio. Seaboard Corporation Will Be the Star of Many MealsSeabord Corp. (NYSEAMERICAN: SEB) is the parent company of the Butterball turkey, “the best known and most loved brand of turkey” in America, according to a 2023 survey.Turkey remains the main course at Thanksgiving dinner for the vast majority of U.S. households. Throw in the Christmas and New Year’s holidays, and it’s easy to understand why turkey demand spikes in the last quarter of the year.SEB stock is up more than 65% this year. That’s an outlier compared to its history over any length of time. Seaboard has a long history of steadily increasing its share price instead of splitting, which makes the nominal price high at over $4,000, which could deter many investors.However, the stock trades at just 9x earnings and its price-to-sales and price-to-book ratios also point to its value compared to consumer staples competitors. The Campbell’s Company: A Perfect Side Dish for Value InvestorsAccording to Campbell’s (NASDAQ: CPB) “State of the Sides” report for 2025, 44% of respondents cited the green bean casserole as the most iconic Thanksgiving side dish.Campbell’s plays a key role in its creation with its Cream of Mushroom soup.However, Campbell’s, formerly known as The Campbell Soup Company, has expanded beyond soup to include Pace salsas and dips, Prego pasta sauces, Pepperidge Farm baked snacks, and Goldfish crackers. That means the stock isn’t as niche as many investors may think. Better still, CPB stock is down 26% in 2025, but the stock chart appears to be confirming a double bottom that could signal a bullish reversal, propelling the stock into 2026. In addition, analysts have assigned the stock a $34.59 price target, implying nearly 12% upside potential.General Mills Is the Baker’s Best FriendBaking season is upon us. That means that many products from General Mills Inc. (NYSE: GIS) will be entering homes.General Mills is the parent company of iconic brands such as Pillsbury, Betty Crocker, and Green Giant. Pies, dinner rolls, stuffing—not to mention all of those Christmas cookies—typically lead to a surge in sales of baking mixes and pie crusts around this time of the year.Like many consumer staples companies, GIS stock has been beaten down, with a year-to-date decline of approximately 25%. However, analysts seem to be saying enough is enough. The consensus price target of $55.82 is almost 18% above the current price. Additionally, at 10x earnings, the stock appears poised to generate substantial returns for opportunistic investors. McCormick & Company Can Spice Up a PortfolioEven if investors aren’t interested in owning consumer staples stocks for the long haul, there’s a simple reason to own McCormick & Company (NYSE: MKC) at this time of year: the current quarter is historically the company’s strongest quarter in terms of revenue.Millions of consumers are about to do their spice inventory and realize it’s time to restock. That means McCormick, which holds its pricing value even when compared to house brands. MKC stock has been in a five-year retreat, which has wiped out most of its pandemic-fueled gains. However, at 21x earnings, the stock appears attractively valued. Analysts seem to agree, assigning MKC a consensus price target of $78.22, reflecting a potential 21% upside. Plus, investors get a stable dividend that yields 2.79% and has increased for 38 consecutive years.Constellation Brands Is the Life of the PartyAlcohol and holidays go together like peanut butter and jelly. But it has been a rough few years for wine and spirit stocks. Many analysts believe consumer tastes are irreversibly changing, while others believe macroeconomic conditions are driving down demand.However, Constellation Brands Inc. (NYSE: STZ) is a best-in-class stock that could be a savvy seasonal play. Constellation is the parent company of the Robert Mondavi wine label as well as Modelo beer.STZ stock is down over 40% this year, but analysts give the stock a consensus price target of $186.44, over 43% above its current price. Plus, the stock trades for just 9.6x forward earnings, meaning the valuation won’t give you a hangover. READ THIS STORY ONLINEBuy this Gold Stock Before The New Year (Ad)A major shift is coming to the gold market — the world’s largest gold buyer is preparing to launch a new way for everyday Americans to invest in gold with a click, and when it goes live in 2026 it could unleash a wave of demand unlike anything we’ve seen. Garrett Goggin believes one $1.60 gold stock is positioned to be a prime beneficiary of this surge — a move where even a small price jump could mean a meaningful gain — along with several other miners set to ride the same trend.CLICK HERE TO SEE THE $1.60 GOLD STOCK AND GARRETT’S FULL LIST OF RECOMMENDATIONSWhy Home Depot’s Pain Could Be a Long-Term Investor’s GainWritten by Thomas HughesHome Depot (NYSE: HD) is rarely a bad stock to hold, but it is occasionally a poor choice to buy. The best times to buy are not when the price is at a peak, above its moving averages, or showing resistance. Instead, good buying opportunities include setups like the one in mid-November after the Q3 earnings release. The Q3 earnings release was lackluster, giving some investors an excuse to sell. Still, the move is opening up an attractive buying opportunity for others, with HD stock trading near one-year lows and the low end of a trading range where support is likely to be strong.Support is likely strong at this level because it coincides with a long-term uptrend line rooted in the 2011 price action. The takeaway is that HD stock is under pressure today from forces outside its control, but is poised to rebound soon and is likely to deliver market-beating total returns over the subsequent three-, five-, and ten-year periods.  Home Depot: When Good News Is Bad for Business (and Why It’s a Good Buy-and-Hold)Home Depot had a decent quarter despite its headwinds. Among them is a relatively easy 2025 hurricane season. While the season produced numerous storms and wreaked widespread havoc, the U.S. mainland largely escaped the impact. The key point is that storm-related demand never materialized, as shown by the numbers. Even so, the company’s $41.35 million in net revenue is up 2.8% year over year and outperformed the consensus estimate by 55 basis points. The increase is due to positive system-wide and U.S. comps, as well as an increased store count.Systemwide comps increased by 0.2% with the U.S. up by 0.1%. Comps were driven by increased ticket averages offset by a decline in traffic. Traffic declines are tied to the aforementioned storm season and to weak housing fundamentals.Margin news is the truly weak spot. The company improved its gross margin incrementally, but offset it with increased costs. The bad news is that profits and earnings decline compared to the prior year, but there is a silver lining.The earnings reduction is linked to weaker-than-expected sales and resulted in inventory buildup. Inventory build-up cut into profitability, but sets the company up for strength in upcoming quarters with less need to build inventory and opportunities for liquidation. Guidance is another area of weakness, with the revenue and earnings forecasts below estimates. The caveat for bears is that tepid guidance doesn’t offset growth and cash flow, which will be sufficient to sustain the capital return program and value gains for investors.Critical details from the report include the balance sheet, which reflects an increase in assets offsetting liabilities and equity, with equity more than doubling, and the dividend, which is safe and reliable. HD: Analysts and Institutions Like This Stock But Provide Headwinds in Q4Analysts and institutions like HD stock. The 23 analysts tracked by MarketBeat rate it as a consensus Moderate Buy, a rating that has been firm and steady for years, and institutions own more than 70% of the stock. The problem is that analysts have been trimming their targets and institutions’ positions, creating a headwind for the market.This trend will likely persist in Q4, given the tepid release, but is unlikely to send the stock significantly lower. While some analysts have lowered their targets, late October and early November revisions include some increases, with the bulk of the revisions falling within a $375 to $400 price range, and the low end aligns with critical support levels.The likely outcome is that HD will still test support, potentially wallowing near essential levels for the next few months, and then resume its long-term uptrend in early to mid-2026 as interest rate reductions spur consumer spending and housing demand. READ THIS STORY ONLINE$4,200 gold is nice … but here’s what most gold bugs are missing (Ad)Gold just surged past $4,200, but Weiss Ratings expert Sean Brodrick says the real upside is in select gold stocks — in past bull markets, these plays delivered gains as high as 5,000% to 9,800%, and Sean has now identified five companies he believes could see explosive moves in the early stages of what may be the biggest gold rally yet.CLICK HERE TO SEE SEAN’S FIVE TOP GOLD PICKSQualcomm’s Bulls Are Running Out of Room to Be WrongWritten by Sam QuirkeShares of Qualcomm Inc. (NASDAQ: QCOM) were down another 2% early on Tuesday, Nov. 18, sliding below $163 as the broader market sell-off began to gain momentum. The move meant they had now erased all post-earnings gains from last month’s breakout, leaving the stock down more than 20% from its highs. Despite repeatedly beating expectations and expanding into AI and automotive markets, Qualcomm’s chart looks fragile once again.For long-term investors, it’s a familiar story: strong fundamentals are overshadowed by a lack of market conviction. The bulls still believe this is just a pullback in a larger uptrend, while the bears see yet another false start—who’s going to win out? Let’s jump in and take a look. Bulls Still See Strength Beneath the SurfaceTo the bulls, Qualcomm’s long-term setup remains compelling, as long as you don’t look too closely at recent price action. The rising trendline that began in April is still technically intact, and the company’s fundamentals continue to look solid. The most recent quarterly report once again saw EPS and revenue come in ahead of expectations, while management issued solid forward guidance.The company’s diversification is continuing to gain momentum, while its new AI strategy gives it a foothold in one of the hottest spaces in the market right now. These shifts have insulated the business from handset cycles and positioned it for more stable, recurring revenue growth.From a valuation standpoint, the stock still trades at a discount to other large-cap semiconductor names. That combination of growth and relative value continues to attract bullish analysts, with the likes of Susquehanna rating Qualcomm a Buy earlier this month, echoing the move from Rosenblatt Securities, which called a price target of $225. From where the stock was trading early on Tuesday, that suggests a potential upside of more than 35%.Bears Say It’s the Same Story AgainHowever, the bears have a simpler take: this is classic Qualcomm. Strong reports, bold growth promises, signs of a bullish breakout—and then another fade. The stock’s inability to hold above $180 or sustain October’s surge reinforces the perception that every breakout this stock tries to start quickly runs out of steam.They’ll also argue that Qualcomm’s diversification narrative has been around for years, and while the execution may be improving, the market clearly wants to see more before rewarding it. That view has support in parts of Wall Street, with the team over at Wells Fargo urging caution with its Underweight rating earlier this month. Given the stock’s ongoing slide since then, that call is starting to look prescient.Macro headwinds make things worse. With risk appetite fading, investors are becoming far more selective with their tech exposure. For those chasing pure AI plays, Qualcomm looks too uncertain right now—and it’s a fair question to ask: if the stock couldn’t hold onto gains when the market was at record highs, what happens to it when sentiment turns south?Key Levels and Catalysts to WatchTechnically, the $160–$162 zone is now the key line in the sand. A break below would risk a move toward the mid-$150s, wiping out the uptrend that began in spring. Momentum indicators tell a mixed story. The RSI has drifted below neutral and towards oversold levels, while the MACD is also leaning negative. It’s hard to be excited about a rebound in the stock until either, if not both, of these indicators turn more bullish. However, it’s worth keeping in mind that there are still reasons for optimism. Qualcomm’s balance sheet remains strong, and its expanding presence in automotive and IoT continues to differentiate it from many of its AI-focused peers. If macro conditions stabilize, the stock could be one of the first to recover.Either way, Qualcomm remains a stock defined by frustration. The fundamentals are there, the analyst support is there, and yet the price action is once again coming up short. If its stock can hold the current support line and avoid another breakdown, the bulls may still win this round—but with the momentum fading fast, they’re running out of room, and excuses, to be wrong. READ THIS STORY ONLINEAI Continues to Surge—Here Are 2 Stocks Still Under $15 (Ad)Markets are volatile—but AI keeps rising.A new report reveals two under-the-radar AI stocks under $15 that could thrive in 2025’s uncertain market. These picks are backed by key trends most investors are missing.DOWNLOAD YOUR FREE REPORT: 2 AI STOCKS UNDER $15 FOR 2025More StoriesWhirlpool’s Worst May Be Over—Upside Opportunity AheadThese 3 Beaten-Down Stocks Could Be Your Best Buying Opportunity This QuarterWall Street’s Quiet Move Into Digital Currency — 5 Assets to Watch (Ad)3 Smart Defensive Stocks for an Uneasy MarketAmazon Just Did This—and It Didn’t End Well Last TimeHow Does D-Wave Stack Up to Quantum Rivals After Earnings Season?Seagate Stock Could Soar as AI Drives Storage DemandThe Night Owl is a financial newsletter that provides in-depth market analysis on stocks of interest to individual investors. Published by MarketBeat and Early Bird Publishing, The Night Owl is delivered around 9:00 PM Eastern Sunday through Thursday. If you give a hoot about the market, The Night Owl is the newsletter for you.  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