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🦉 The Night Owl Newsletter for February 12th
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Wall Street is panicking—smart money is buying THIS (From Crypto 101 Media)
From a Dividend King to FinTech, These 3 Large Caps Just Reported
Written by Jordan Chussler

With earnings season in full swing, investors are counting on companies’ full-year and Q4 2025 financials to serve as an impetus for the S&P 500, which to date has mustered a gain of just 1.22%.
But more importantly, shareholders are looking at guidance to glean clues about how their portfolio may perform throughout the remainder of the year.
A notable number of large-cap companies have already or will report earnings this week, including four household names on Feb. 9.
From a Dividend King, a fintechgroundbreaker, and a 122-year-old electric utility provider, these companies’ earnings provided insights into their respective stocks, sectors, and industries.
Despite Coca-Cola’s Mixed Results, Guidance Remains Steady
Coca-Cola (NYSE: KO) reported full-year and Q4 2025 earnings before the market opened on Feb. 10. By the close, the consumer staples giant slipped 1.47% after mixed results.
The company beat analyst expectations for earnings per share (EPS) by 2 cents but missed the consensus revenue estimate by nearly 2%. Quarterly revenue rose 2.2% year-over-year (YOY).
The soft drink maker has not missed on earnings since Q1 2017, and its dividend—which Coca-Cola has increased for 64 consecutive years—has an annualized five-year growth rate of 3.93% to go along with a dividend payout ratio of nearly 66%.
Regarding guidance, the company expects organic revenue growth of 4% to 5% in 2026—stronger than Q4’s YOY revenue growth—alongside EPS growth of 7% to 8% and free cash flow of approximately $12.2 billion.
During the company’s earnings call, management noted that over the past 50 years, Coca-Cola’s annual volume had only declined once, during the pandemic, and investors have no reason to suspect that the blue-chip stock will not deliver once again in 2026.
The Market Overlooks Robinhood’s Enormous Annual Revenue Growth
After an outsized gain of more than 185% in 2025, shares of mobile-first brokerage platform Robinhood (NASDAQ: HOOD) fell by than 7% in after-hours trading on Feb. 10 after the company beat on earnings but missed on revenue.
Robinhood’s Q4 2025 EPS came in at 66 cents, topping analyst expectations for 58 cents. Revenue of $1.28 billion fell shy of estimates of $1.32 billion.
But the market’s negative reaction seems shortsighted. First, while quarterly revenue missed, annual revenue of $4.47 billion represented a 52% YOY increase. Second, based on this year’s Super Bowl ads, prediction markets are bringing gambling back to center stage in the United States.
That is underscored by Robinhood’s recent push into prediction markets, which should serve as an enormous revenue generator as it positions itself to compete with the likes of Kalshi and Polymarket while continuing to provide financial services for the equity and crypto markets.
According to industry consultancy firm Grand View Research, the global predictive analytics market is forecast to undergo a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 28.3% from 2025 to 2030, increasing from $18.89 billion to $82.35 billion.
That should continue to benefit Robinhood’s top line, which listed prediction markets as its number one priority in the company’s earnings presentation.
Meanwhile, of the 24 analysts covering HOOD, 17 assign it a Buy rating, and the stock’s average 12-month price target suggests nearly 54% potential upside.
Duke Beats on Top and Bottom Lines, Extends Its Long-Term EPS Growth Projections
Over the past six months, the utilities sector has trailed all 11 of the S&P 500’s sectors with an uninspiring gain of just 0.91%. But over the past month, fueled by natural gas inflation and demand for electricity rising this winter, the sector’s 1.85% gain has outperformed the broad market.
Duke Energy (NYSE: DUK), which has its roots in early 20th-century regional utilities, has grown through decades of mergers and acquisitions to become one of the largest U.S. utilities. When it reported Q4 2025 financials on Feb. 10, it beat on the top and bottom lines.
Duke’s EPS came in at $1.50 while revenue of $7.94 billion easily surpassed analyst expectations for $7.57 billion. With a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 19.62, the utility company’s earnings are projected to grow 6.32% this year, from $6.33 per share to $6.73 per share.
Of note from the company’s earnings call, Duke’s five‑year capital plan increased by $16 billion to $103 billion, funding around 14 GW of incremental generation over five years and underpinning a projected 9.6% earnings‑based growth rate. Management added that they are “also extending our 5%–7% long-term EPS growth rate through 2030.”
With 11 of the 18 analysts covering DUK assigning it a Buy rating, the stock’s average 12-month price target represents 8.69% potential upside. Meanwhile, Duke’s dividend, which yields 3.44%, continues to reward patient shareholders with an annualized five-year growth rate of 2% and 20 consecutive years of increases. READ THIS STORY ONLINE
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Unity’s Stock Plunges 30%: Panic? Or Profit?
Written by Jeffrey Neal Johnson

Wall Street often struggles to digest complex corporate maneuvers, and Feb. 11, 2026, provided a brutal example of this dynamic. Investors in Unity Software (NYSE: U) witnessed a dramatic sell-off with the stock dropping nearly 30% to close around $20.43. This move erased months of recovery gains and pushed the company’s valuation to multi-year lows.
At first glance, the steep decline suggests a business in crisis. However, a closer look at the financial report reveals a striking contradiction. Unity actually beat analyst expectations for the fourth quarter of 2025. The company reported higher revenue and profits than Wall Street predicted.
The sell-off was not driven by a current failure, but rather by fear regarding a bold strategic pivot. Management is actively shrinking a legacy part of the business to force growth in a newer, more profitable segment. This transition has created a short-term revenue dip that investors have interpreted as weakness, potentially creating a disconnect between Unity’s stock priceand the company’s financial reality.
Profits Over Promises: Unity Delivers Record Cash Flow
To understand if the market reaction is justified, investors must first look at how the business performed in the most recent quarter. For years, Unity was criticized as a company that burned cash to chase growth at all costs. The report released paints a very different picture. Under the leadership of CEO Matt Bromberg, the company has morphed into a disciplined, cash-generating enterprise.
For the fourth quarter of 2025, Unity reported revenue of $503.1 million. This figure represents a roughly 10% year-over-year increase and comfortably beats the consensus estimate of approximately $492 million. More importantly, the company is becoming significantly more profitable. Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) came in at 24 cents, beating the forecast of 21 cents.
The strongest indicator of health, however, is cash flow. This metric is crucial because it represents the actual cash the company has left over after paying its operating expenses and capital expenditures.
In previous years, this number was often negative, forcing the company to dilute shareholder value or borrow money. In Q4, Unity delivered:
- Free Cash Flow: A robust $119 million.
- Adjusted EBITDA: $124.9 million, representing a healthy 25% margin.
These figures suggest that the operational turnaround is not just a plan; it is already showing results. The business is self-sufficient, meaning it no longer relies on external funding to survive. In a volatile market, this financial stability usually establishes a floor for the stock price, as the company now has the cash reserves to weather economic storms.
Short-Term Pain for Long-Term Gain
If the past results were strong, why did the stock fall so sharply? The answer lies in the company’s outlook for the future. Unity provided revenue guidance for the first quarter of 2026 of $480 million to $490 million. This forecast missed the average analyst estimate of $494 million, suggesting growth might stall or turn negative in the near term.
However, context is vital. This guidance miss is not due to a sudden lack of demand for Unity’s products. Instead, it is a calculated move by management to shut down a legacy product. Unity is actively winding down its IronSource advertising network. This legacy network was described by management as commoditized and lower margin, meaning it generates revenue but very little profit.
By shutting down IronSource, Unity is forcing customers to migrate to its new artificial intelligence (AI)-powered platform, Unity Vector. This creates a revenue air pocket, a temporary dip in sales, because the old revenue is turned off before the new revenue fully ramps up.
Despite the weak total revenue forecast, the new product is performing well. Key data points for Unity Vector include:
- Sequential Growth: The platform grew revenue by approximately 15% from the third quarter to the fourth quarter.
- Momentum: January 2026 was the platform’s best revenue month to date, with sales up roughly 70% year-over-year.
- Future Outlook: Management expects Vector to reach a $1 billion annualized run rate by the end of 2026.
This data suggests that the product is working. The company is trading short-term optical weakness for long-term structural health. Investors who sold on the headline number may have missed the underlying quality improvement in the revenue mix.
Price Targets vs. Share Price: Measuring the Gap
The market’s reaction to the guidance was swift and brutal, a phenomenon often referred to as capitulation. This occurs when investors lose patience and sell their positions regardless of price.
On the earnings date alone, volume spiked to over 100 million shares, triple the normal activity. This indicates a mass exodus of short-term traders.
However, professional analysts who cover the stock have taken a more measured view. While price targets have been lowered to reflect near-term volatility, analyst valuations remain significantly higher than the stock’s current price.
With the stock trading near $20, it is currently priced well below even the most pessimistic of these updates.
This gap suggests that the market may have overreacted. If the stock were to simply rise to meet the lowest target of $29, it would represent a significant gain of over 40% from current levels.
A Clearing Event for Patient Investors
The stock market hates uncertainty, and Unity has presented investors with a complex puzzle. On one hand, the company is more profitable than ever, generating record cash flow and proving that its new AI technology works. On the other hand, management has chosen to inflict short-term pain by shutting down a legacy business, making the next few months of revenue look unappealing.
Unity’s 30% drop appears to be a clearing event, a moment where fear flushes out short-term traders, resetting the stock’s valuation to a baseline level. For investors who focus on fundamentals, the picture is clearer. The business is stabilizing, the balance sheet is healthy, and the product transition is underway. While volatility will likely persist until the migration to the Vector platform is complete in mid-2026, the gap between the market’s panic and the company’s profitable reality offers a compelling risk-reward scenario for those willing to look past the headlines. READ THIS STORY ONLINE
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Guidance, Not Earnings, Sends Equinix Stock Higher
Written by Chris Markoch
Equinix Inc. (NASDAQ: EQIX) stock is up more than 12% after the company reported earnings after the market closed on Feb. 11. The real estate investment trust (REIT) missed on the top and bottom lines, but it was the guidance that has investors bidding the stock higher.
Specifically, Equinix projected full-year 2026 revenue in a range of $10.12 billion to $10.22 billion. That’s only slightly higher than the consensus estimate of $10.07 billion. However, it’s confirmation that growth continues to accelerate.
Funds from operations (FFO) is a critical metric for REITs, and Equinix projects FFO to grow by 10.5% in 2026, well above the 5% growth estimate it gave in June 2025.
It’s easy to see why investors liked what they heard. However, after such a strong move higher, is this a time to jump into EXIQ stock, or is caution the better play?
A Hub for AI Infrastructure
Equinix is primarily a data center operator with 280 data centers in 36 countries. The company owns 176 of its 280 data centers, and over 80% of its recurring revenue is generated by either owned properties or leases that expire in 2041 or later.
Equinix specializes in “interconnection”—facilitating direct, private connections between businesses, cloud providers, networks, and other digital infrastructure. Specific to the current AI infrastructure buildout, Equiniz’s data centers serve as hubs for several spokes in the AI workflow.
- Network Hub = where you aggregate and access your data
- GPU Colocation = where you train and run your models
- Edge Gateway = where you deploy those models close to end users
Companies can do all three within Equinix’s ecosystem, with fast connections between each piece. It’s the difference between having an office, factory, and distribution centers all in the same industrial park versus scattered across different cities.
And Equinix’s guidance is also the latest example of why some analysts may be getting the artificial intelligence (AI) bubble story wrong.
Can Equinix’s Growth Continue to Outrun Estimates?
This is the question that investors have to consider if they’re not currently involved with EQIX stock. The gap up after the earnings report has put the stock into an overbought range, which suggests short-term caution.
But lines on a chart only tell you what a stock is supposed to do, not what it will do. Short interest is up slightly in 2026 but is still only about 2% of the stock’s float. With 94% of the stock owned by institutional investors, investors shouldn’t expect much short pressure on the stock.
That said, the stock is now trading for around $980 per share, which is only a shade below the $1,000 price target that Jefferies gave it on Feb. 12. The Equinix analyst forecasts on MarketBeat show the highest price target of $1,050coming from HSBC.
But combining overbought signals with analyst forecasts that suggest the stock is near its top indicates the next move will be lower.

Get Paid to Wait
A compelling benefit of many REITs is the dividends. REITs are required to pay out 90% of their profits as dividends. With a share price approaching $1,000, Equinix has a dividend yield of 1.96%—not a high yield by any measure.
But the payout should catch investors’ eyes. The company just increased its quarterly dividend to $5.16. If it maintains that for the full year, investors will get an annual per-share payout of $20.64. And Equinix has increased the dividend for 10 consecutive years with an average three-year growth rate of 11.11%.
Investors who believe in the company’s future growth have every reason to expect their total return in EQIX stock to start looking more like the 10-year average of around 28%. READ THIS STORY ONLINE
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