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🦉 The Night Owl Newsletter for August 18th
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Small Colorado Company (Backed by Sam Altman) Could Save U.S. Power Grid (From Altimetry)
The AI Boom Is Turning This Cable Maker Into a Stock to Watch
Written by Peter Frank

Investors hunting for ways to profit from the artificial intelligence boom typically look to chipmakers, cloud giants, or maybe software firms embedding AI into everything.
But what about the company that makes the cable running between the server racks? Just ask Belden (NYSE: BDC)about where this unexpected opportunity lies and how it now has Wall Street’s attention.
Rated a Buy by analysts, this century-old maker of industrial cable and wire has surged in recent weeks and is in the midst of a multibillion-dollar acquisition. Whether the expansion pays off and Belden can outcompete some larger competitors, this St. Louis-based company might be a less-obvious way to play the AI-fueled buildout.
Belden’s Record Quarter Fuels Its Rally
Belden has spent more than a century supplying the kind of unglamorous infrastructure that keeps factories, hospitals, refineries, and mass transit running.
That story is changing. Shares are up roughly 38% over the past month, helped by a blowout second-quarter earnings report in late July, and analysts are expecting to see further growth.
The quarter itself was a record. Revenue came in at $750.2 million, up 11.6% year-over-year (YOY) and ahead of the $746.75 million Wall Street expected. Net income came in at $68.5 million, up 12.3% from $61 million. Adjusted earnings per share hit $2.34, a 24% jump from a year earlier, comfortably beating the $2.02 consensus.
Orders reached a record $836 million, up 19% YOY, pushing the book-to-bill ratio to 1.11, a clear sign demand is building. Margins told the same story as adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) rose about 28% to $146 million. The margin climbed to 19.5% from 17%.
AI Data Centers Drive New Demand
Belden isn’t succeeding by building AI models or chips. It’s supplying the behind-the-scenes or under-the-floorboards connectivity that the AI buildout sorely needs.
Belden disclosed roughly $40 million in hyperscaler orders, or those from large-scale cloud computing providers, during the quarter. That included a $20 million contract with an unnamed Tier 1 hyperscaler for high-density fiber connectivity inside an AI data center.
The segment is still a small slice of Belden’s business today, but it’s growing fast. First-quarter revenue was already up 11% to $696.4 million, with adjusted earnings per share (EPS) up 11% to $1.77. The full 2025 fiscal year was itself a record, with revenue reaching $2.715 billion, up 10% YOY, with adjusted EPS growing 19% to $7.54.
RUCKUS Acquisition Expands Belden’s Reach
Behind the momentum sits an equally interesting strategic shift.
On July 1, Belden closed a roughly $1.85 billion acquisition from Vistance Networks (NASDAQ: VISN)of its RUCKUS Networks. Not only could RUCKUS, which supplies enterprise Wi-Fi, Ethernet switching, and network management platforms, attract an expanded set of enterprise clients, but its high-margin assets could further boost Belden’s gross and EBITDA margins.
Belden already expects the benefits to appear in the current quarter. Assuming the continuation of current market conditions, the company expects third-quarter revenue to be between $950 million and $970 million, including the contribution of RUCKUS. The company projects GAAP EPS will be between 69 cents and 84 cents. Management expects adjusted EPS to be between $2.15 and $2.30, representing a 9% to 17% increase over the prior year quarter.
Analysts See More Upside for Belden Stock, But Risks Remain
Analysts appear to like the logic so far. Of the seven analysts currently covering the stock, the consensus is a Buy rating, with two analysts labeling it a Strong Buy, four listing it as a Buy, and one has it slated as a Hold.
The average 12-month price target is $156.25, implying a nearly 20% upside from recent levels. The range is running from $175 on the high side to $145 for the low.
There are a few things to consider, however, after surveying the good news. The most obvious concern is that the recent stock runup could signal there’s a chance a good deal of optimism is already priced in. Half the gain so far this year has come just within the past month, as the year-to-date performance is up only 18%. And with a 20-cent annual dividend yielding 0.15%, stock appreciation is the core motivation for investors.
Also, a bit of the bump in second-quarter earnings isn’t guaranteed to repeat. Belden’s results included a net tariff benefit of roughly 25 cents per share tied to an expected trade-remedy recovery, the company said, a singular boost rather than a recurring one.
Competition is also far from backing off. Networking giant Cisco Systems (NASDAQ: CSCO) and connectivity specialist Amphenol (NYSE: APH) are among those also chasing the same data-center and industrial-automation spending.
AI Could Reshape Belden’s Growth Story
In other words, the AI data center angle for Belden might be best understood as an enhancement to the company, not necessarily a long-term transformation. Then again, with the introduction of RUCKUS and the broadened capabilities it brings, Belden could possibly grow into something much more.
The next few quarters could tell whether old-fashioned cables and wires can become something new. Belden might be the place to find out. READ THIS STORY ONLINE
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A Star Investor Just Trimmed Amazon—Here’s What It means
Written by Sam Quirke

Few things unsettle investors quite like the sight of a famous name heading for the exit.
So when news broke last week that investor Dan Loeb’s Third Point fund had trimmed its stake in Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN), just as the shares slid back from record highs, it was tempting to read it as a red flag. If one of the sharpest investors around is selling, then perhaps ordinary shareholders should worry too?
However, the reality is more nuanced, and a closer look at the move tells a very different story.
Far from a dramatic vote of no confidence, Third Point’s decision looks like routine portfolio housekeeping, and the wider picture actually paints Amazon in a reassuring light.
The real story, it turns out, has very little to do with Dan Loeb and Third Point at all.
A Trim, Not a Retreat
The first thing to note is the scale of the move, or rather the lack of it. Third Point only reduced its Amazon holding by roughly 10%, hardly the kind of wholesale dumping that would signal a loss of faith. Even after the sale, Amazon remains one of the fund’s largest disclosed positions and, by some measures, its highest-quality holding in the lot.
That context matters. This wasn’t so much a manager throwing in the towel on a soured investment as an investor reducing one position among many, most likely to free up cash for other trades. Indeed, Third Point was buying elsewhere during the same period, making this look like textbook behavior of a fund rebalancing its book.
Seen in that light, reading too deeply into Third Point’s sale would be a mistake.
What the Funds Are Doing
If Third Point’s move still leaves a nagging doubt, its peers’ behavior should help settle it. One prominent fund was trimming, while several others were doing the opposite, adding to their Amazon stakes with enthusiasm.
The list of buyers is a roll-call of respected names. Seth Klarman’s Baupost fund increased its holding, as did the tech-focused Coatue Management, which boosted its position by almost half. David Tepper’s Appaloosa added to its stake too, painting a picture of broad institutional appetite rather than retreat.
This is the crucial point. Not only is the smart money failing to flee Amazon, but it’s also actually mostly moving in the other direction, with more big names buying, and buying aggressively, than heading for the door. If anything, institutional conviction is tilting bullish.
The Real Reason Shares Have Slipped
If the hedge fund trim is a red herring, what actually explains Amazon’s near-10% slide from its highs? The answer lies in its recent earnings, released at the end of July, and specifically in a growing debate about the eye-watering sums it’s spending.
On the face of it, Amazon’s results were strong, with the all-important cloud division growing rapidly and its profitability improving. The concern is what that growth is costing. Amazon has dramatically raised its spending plans for the year to a colossal $220 billion, a level of investment so vast it’s pushed the company’s free cash flow into negative territory, unnerving investors who worry the returns may not justify the outlay.
It didn’t help that a large chunk of Amazon’s reported profit came not from its core operations but from a one-off paper gain tied to the rising value of its stake in the AI company Anthropic. The recent slide could be due to investors getting spooked at how dependent July’s profit print was on that windfall.
Look Past the Headline
Still, the picture is far less alarming than a headline about a star investor selling, or the stock selling off over the past fortnight, might suggest. The trimmed position itself is a footnote, a modest rebalancing swamped by the buying of other major funds, not the smoke signal of trouble some might fear. The real story is the more familiar tension now surrounding Amazon.
On one side sit the bulls, who see the enormous spending as the price of cementing Amazon’s lead in cloud computing and AI, an investment that will pay off handsomely in time. On the other side, the skeptics worry that the returns on all that capital remain mostly unproven and that the shares have run too far, too fast.
It makes for a real debate, and one that will define the stock far more than any hedge fund’s regulatory filing. For now, that means watching Amazon’s spending, rather than its shareholder list, is what will tell investors where the shares go next. READ THIS STORY ONLINE
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Wendy’s Deal Buzz May Give Fast-Food Investors a New Reason to Look
Written by Nathan Reiff

With rumors swirling that activist investor Nelson Peltz’s Trian Fund Management is putting together resources necessary to take Wendy’s Co. (NASDAQ: WEN) private, investors are bracing for a fast food shake-up that rivals any seen in recent years. As of mid-August, no formal offer has been submitted, but even the possibility of a takeover has sent WEN shares surging about 15% in just five days, to a level just shy of July’s year-to-date (YTD) high.
The positive price movement is welcome for Wendy’s shareholders after a troubled stretch that has been characterized by declining same-store sales, crumbling guidance, and a reduced dividend. But the potential impact of Wendy’s going private is not just on the company itself, but also on competitors like Dine Brands Global Inc. (NYSE: DIN) and Jack in the Box (NASDAQ: JACK), which could benefit from a changed fast-food landscape or even become takeover targets themselves.
A Much-Needed Turnaround for Wendy’s?
Wendy’s has faced intense challenges in recent quarters, including the loss of market share in the coveted U.S. burger category, pressured consumer traffic due to inflation, and more. The company achieved modest wins on both earnings per share (EPS) and revenue for Q2 2026, but this is only because expectations were already very low. In Q2, global systemwide sales declined by 6.5% year over year (YOY), prompting adjusted EBITDA to decrease as well. Perhaps worse still, Wendy’s management withdrew its full-year financial guidance, a sign that the restaurant chain is unlikely to turn things around on its own in the coming quarters.
This is why taking Wendy’s private could be advantageous: it allows the company to make major changes, such as restructuring operations or updating menus, without the pressure of quarterly investor scrutiny or risking short-term earnings setbacks. Under private ownership, Wendy’s might be more likely to close underperforming locations, make improvements to its franchising model, and rebuild the brand—and Trian has already sought to take Wendy’s private several years back.
There is certainly still quite a lot standing between Wendy’s as it currently exists and a version of the company that is privately held by a Trian-led investor group. For investors, WEN shares have already bounced back on the expectation of a potential future deal. The more realistic this prospect becomes, the more likely that WEN shares will trade close to the expected deal value, limiting both downside and upside potential.
Could Other Fast Food Chains Be Next?
Similar to Wendy’s, Dine Brands—the company behind Applebee’s, International House of Pancakes, and more—has had a difficult time contending with changes to consumer spending and the impact on a heavily franchised business model. Even IHOP, one of its strongest brands, saw nearly flat traffic YOY and only 1.5% comparable sales growth in the latest quarter.
While some value and premium offerings and promotions have built momentum, and deliveries are strong and seeing continued growth over multiple consecutive quarters, the company has struggled with declining adjusted EBITDA, adjusted free cash flow that has practically dropped to zero, and mounting costs across multiple areas.
DIN could also be a potential target if investors see restaurants generally becoming appealing acquisition opportunities. If Wendy’s is taken private, it is likely to prompt others to seek opportunities in the same industry, and Dine Brands is a natural place to look.
Jack in the Box is in a slightly different position, having bought Del Taco earlier this decade before selling it just a few years later at a major loss. Shares of JACK are down about 11% YTD and more than 83% in the last five years, reflecting a significant decline as weaker industry traffic and franchise pressures have pummeled the firm. With only minimal upside potential and reluctance across Wall Street, JACK shares are likely not particularly attractive to retail investors.
Still, the company’s strong brand recognition may make it a viable target for a takeover. As with Dine, there are no rumors suggesting that Jack in the Box is currently a potential acquisition target. If the Wendy’s deal does materialize, though, investors might watch JACK shares for signs that others may be looking to follow suit. If so, those already holding shares may benefit most if the stock rises to the anticipated deal value. READ THIS STORY ONLINE
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