View in browser

“We don’t just sit in positions and pray silver hits $100. We’re in and out, taking advantage of pullbacks. That’s how you survive silver’s volatility.”

Karim Rahemtulla, Head Fundamental Tactician, Monument Traders Alliance 

Dear Reader,

Fifteen months ago, I told you something that probably sounded crazy.

With silver trading at $30.68 and the gold-silver ratio sitting at an astronomical 84:1, I said we were looking at a screaming opportunity.

You can check the receipts right here. 

Most investors were chasing tech stocks and AI plays. Central banks were buying gold.

Silver was the forgotten stepchild.

Last night, spot silver hit $80+.

But here’s the context that makes this even more remarkable: Silver’s up 160-170% year-to-date in 2025, absolutely crushing gold’s 55% gain.

This isn’t just my September call paying off – this is a fundamental shift happening in real time.

But here’s what everyone’s missing: this party might just be getting started. Or it might be about to get ugly.

Why the September Call Worked

Remember what I said about that 81:1 ratio?

Historically, ratios between 30-40 signal bull markets for silver. At 84:1, silver was screaming undervalued compared to gold.

The fundamentals were lining up perfectly:

• Fed cutting rates (check – they delivered that 50bp cut in September)
• Inflation concerns mounting (check)
• Geopolitical uncertainty exploding (check)
• Government debt spiraling (bigger check)

But here’s the thing: silver didn’t just catch up to gold. It’s been outrunning it, exactly like it does when the ratio starts collapsing.

Understanding the Gold-Silver Ratio (A Quick Refresher)

For those new to this concept, the gold-silver ratio is simply the current price of gold divided by the current price of silver. It tells us how many ounces of silver equal the value of one ounce of gold.

Using today’s prices: Gold-Silver Ratio = $4,400 / $73 = 60.32

This means it currently takes about 60.32 ounces of silver to equal the value of one ounce of gold.

Historical Context That Changes Everything

The history of this ratio tells a story that should make every investor pay attention.

Ancient times: In Roman times, the ratio was fixed at 12:1 by government decree.

U.S. Bimetallism Era (1792-1873):America legally set the ratio at 15:1, later adjusting to 16:1. These weren’t arbitrary numbers – they reflected real economic relationships.

But here’s where it gets interesting – and dangerous:

The Great Depression (1929-1939): The ratio spiked to 98:1 by 1940 as fear drove investors to gold.

The 1970s: Started around 20:1-30:1, then plummeted to nearly 16:1 in 1979-1980 during the Hunt brothers’ silver squeeze.

The 1980s: Recession drove it to 70:1 by 1983, touching 80:1 before the 1987 crash.

The 1990s: Hit an all-time high of 100:1 during the 1991 recession.

2008 Financial Crisis: Jumped to 80:1 initially, then collapsed as silver exploded during the recovery.

2011: The ratio hit just 31:1 as silver approached $50/oz – that’s when silver was expensive relative to gold.

COVID-19 Pandemic (2020): Record high of 123:1 during the March panic.

Today at 60.32, we’re sitting right in the middle of historical extremes – but here’s the crucial insight:

Every time the ratio has been this high or higher, it eventually crashed back toward those 30-40 levels. The only question is timing and magnitude.

With gold at $4,400, that historical mean reversion could drive silver to $110-125. We’re not talking about hope – we’re talking about historical precedent.

What the 60.32 Ratio Is Telling Us

The gold-silver ratio has collapsed from 84:1 to 60.32 as I write this. That’s massive compression in just 15 months – exactly what I predicted would happen.

But we’re still well above that historical sweet spot of 30-40 where silver really explodes.

And here’s what most people are missing: Gold is at $4,400.

The math that should shock you: If the ratio drops to 40 (still conservative by historical standards), silver would hit $110. We’re currently at $73.

If the ratio hits 35 (the sweet spot of previous silver bull runs), we’re looking at $125+ silver.

Think about that. Silver has already gained triple-digit returns from my October call, but if it just catches up to where gold has gone, we could see another 50-70% move from here.

The prediction: This isn’t just ratio compression – this is silver playing massive catch-up to gold’s explosion to $4,400. The fundamentals driving gold (currency debasement, debt spirals, geopolitical chaos) apply even more to silver because of its industrial demand overlay.

We could see the ratio test 50 within months. Below 45, and silver enters that explosive territory where $100+ becomes the floor, not the ceiling.

But remember: These are the same fundamentals that took gold from $2,000 to $4,400. Silver’s just been late to the party. When it catches up, it won’t be polite about it.

SPONSORED

15,000 New Elon Musk “Supercomputers” Shipping to Americans EACH Day

Elon Musk is shipping 15,000 “Supercomputers” from this factory to cities across America — every single day. Making it one of the largest tech rollouts in history. Yet one little-known chipmaker is providing the guts of these new Elon devices — and it trades for just $50 a share.

Click here to discover this “backdoor” opportunity to Elon’s newest project right now.

The Volatility Reality Check

Now here’s where it gets interesting – and dangerous.

Silver is more volatile than gold. Always has been. When it moves, it doesn’t just move – it overshoots. Both ways.

Just like we saw last Friday, and what we are seeing today.

Look at what’s happening: while most traders are in vacation mode and volumes are thin, silver’s making monster moves. That’s classic silver behavior. It loves to run when nobody’s watching, then punish late-comers.

What the Smart Money Knows

The fundamentals are still screaming bullish:

• Central banks continuing gold purchases at record pace (634 tonnes in 2025, led by emerging markets like Brazil and Poland)
• Currency debasement accelerating globally
• Industrial demand for silver growing (solar, electronics, batteries)
• Ongoing market deficits: The Silver Institute forecasts a 2025 shortfall of 115-206 million ounces, the latest in a multi-year streak that’s drained global inventories
• Above-ground silver supplies getting tighter after cumulative deficits since 2021 exceed 800 million ounces

The deficit trajectory tells the story:

2021: ~100 million ounces deficit
2022: ~150 million ounces deficit
2023: ~180 million ounces deficit
2024: ~215 million ounces deficit
2025: 115-206 million ounces deficit projected

That’s five straight years of shortfalls, with cumulative deficits exceeding 800 million ounces since 2021.

But fundamentals don’t protect you from 20% swings in a week.

YOUR ACTION PLAN

The bottom line: I called silver’s move from $30 to $70+. The ratio compression story is far from over. But silver will break your heart faster than any ex you’ve ever had.

Don’t let a great call turn into a painful lesson about position sizing and profit-taking.

Because in silver, the only thing more dangerous than missing the move is not having an exit plan.

We made money on SLV and silver mining stocks.

But we don’t just sit in them and pray that silver hits $100. We’re in and out of these positions, taking advantage of pullbacks.

Because in silver, the only thing more dangerous than missing the move is not having an exit plan.

Don’t let a great call turn into a painful lesson about position sizing and profit-taking.

Think like a smart trader, not someone chasing hype.

---

INSIGHTS YOU MAY HAVE MISSED

Silicon Isn’t Dying – It’s Evolving Into a Massive Opportunity

Happy Holidays from Monument Trader’s Alliance

How One Graduate Class Changed Everything I Know About Market Behavior

The Real AI Winner Isn’t Who You Think

SPONSORED

Alexander Green Reveals What Trump Plans for His Economic Comeback

Bill O’Reilly just interviewed investment expert Alexander Green, who revealed:

• Why Trump’s second term could dwarf his first
• What new AI technology could amplify Trump’s policies
• How 6 specific stocks could soar under Trump’s plan

→ Click Here to Watch the Rebirth of the American Dream

Monument Traders Alliance, LLC

You are receiving this email because you subscribed to Trade of the Day.
To unsubscribe from Trade of the Day, click here.

Questions? Check out our FAQs. Trying to reach us? Contact us here.
Please do not reply to this email as it goes to an unmonitored inbox.

To cancel by mail or for any other subscription issues, write us at:
Trade of the Day | 14 West Mount Vernon Place | Baltimore, MD 21201

North America: 800.507.1399 | International: +1.443.353.4977
Website | Privacy Policy
Keep the emails you value from falling into your spam folder. Whitelist Trade of the Day.

© 2025 Monument Traders Alliance, LLC | All Rights Reserved

Nothing published by Monument Traders Alliance should be considered personalized investment advice. Although our employees may answer your general customer service questions, they are not licensed under securities laws to address your particular investment situation. No communication by our employees to you should be deemed personalized investment advice. We allow the editors of our publications to recommend securities that they own themselves. However, our policy prohibits editors from exiting a personal trade while the recommendation to subscribers is open. In no circumstance may an editor sell a security before subscribers have a fair opportunity to exit. The length of time an editor must wait after subscribers have been advised to exit a play depends on the type of publication. All other employees and agents must wait 24 hours after publication before trading on a recommendation.

Any investments recommended by Monument Traders Alliance should be made only after consulting with your investment advisor and only after reviewing the prospectus or financial statements of the company.

Protected by copyright laws of the United States and international treaties. The information found on this website may only be used pursuant to the membership or subscription agreement and any reproduction, copying or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including on the world wide web), in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Monument Traders Alliance, LLC, 14 West Mount Vernon Place, Baltimore, MD 21201.

REF: 000142349377