This morning while most traders were celebrating the rally, I spotted something that made my blood run cold…
The S&Ps hit EXACTLY the upper edge of our expected move at 5450 (the precise number we drew on our charts last Thursday).
But what happened next reveals why this volatility chapter is FAR from over…
• Why this morning’s “rip your face off” rally has all the classic hallmarks of a BEAR MARKET bounce (and the specific correlation pattern that proves it)
• The SHOCKING 60% OVERNIGHT SURGE in zero DTE option premiums that almost nobody noticed (when they should have been decaying!)
• Why the VIX being “only” down 5% today is actually a WARNING SIGN (and the specific volatility futures that show risk is still very much alive)
• The hidden SKEW TRAP most retail traders are falling into (I found 114-day options still trading at 37-38 volatility – that’s the smart money betting on turbulence)
• Why hitting BOTH the upper AND lower edges of a $168 expected move in the same week is incredibly rare (and what it signals for next week)
Look, you’re still just ONE earnings announcement or tweet away from this market turning into Mr. Toad’s Wild Ride again.
That’s why I’m watching for a very specific setup if this rally continues into Thursday/Friday – it could present the perfect shorting opportunity for prepared traders.
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