You’re not going to believe what happened Thursday.

Trump gave his first primetime war address Wednesday night. He said the war is “nearing completion” and will end “very shortly.”

He also said he’s going to bomb Iran “extremely hard” for the next 2-3 weeks and bring them “back to the stone ages.”

Markets had absolutely no idea what to do with that.

Thursday morning opened with panic. The Dow dropped 600 points in the first hour. The S&P fell 1.5%. The Nasdaq crashed 1.9%. Oil surged past $113 per barrel—the highest since 2022.

Then something weird happened.

By midday, almost all of those losses had vanished. The Dow recovered to down just 162 points. The S&P was off 0.2%. The Nasdaq trimmed its loss to 0.4%.

What changed? A single headline: Iranian state media reported that Iran is working with Oman on a “protocol” to “monitor” ships through the Strait of Hormuz.

That’s it. One unconfirmed report from Iranian media about a monitoring protocol—not a reopening, just monitoring—and $10 billion in market value came flooding back.

Here’s what’s actually happening: nobody has any clue what’s going on with this war.

Let’s start with Trump’s speech, because it was a masterclass in saying two opposite things at the same time.

“I’m pleased to say that these core strategic objectives are nearing completion,” Trump said. “We’ve beaten and completely decimated Iran. They are decimated, both militarily and economically and in every other way.”

If that’s true, the war should be over, right?

Here’s what he said next: “We’re going to hit them extremely hard over the next two to three weeks. We’re going to bring them back to the stone ages, where they belong.”

Wait—what?

If Iran is “completely decimated,” why do you need 2-3 more weeks of “extremely hard” bombing?

Trump didn’t explain. He just moved on.

He threatened to destroy every single power plant in Iran if they don’t make a deal. He said the U.S. might target their oil facilities. He said discussions are “ongoing” but gave zero details about what’s being discussed or who’s discussing it.

Then he told Americans to “keep this conflict in perspective” and compared it to other wars that lasted years.

So which is it? Is the war ending “very shortly,” or are we settling in for 2-3 more weeks of escalation, or is this going to drag on like Afghanistan?

Markets tried to figure it out Thursday morning. They failed.

Oil tells you everything you need to know about how confused everyone is.

When Trump’s speech started Wednesday night, oil was trading around $100 per barrel. As soon as he said “2-3 weeks” and “stone ages,” oil shot up. By Thursday morning, West Texas Intermediate crude was at $113—up more than 11% in a matter of hours.

That’s the highest oil has traded since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022.

Gas is now $4.02 per gallon nationally. In California, it’s pushing $6. If oil stays at $113 through April, you’re looking at $4.50+ nationwide. If it climbs to $120 or $130, you’re looking at $5.

Trump blamed Iran for attacking oil tankers and said the price spike is “short-term.” But he didn’t say when it ends. He didn’t give a date. He just said “very shortly,” which could mean anything.

Here’s the problem: the Strait of Hormuz is still closed. Iran is still blocking ships. Twenty percent of the world’s oil is still offline. And Trump’s speech didn’t offer any plan to change that.

He suggested European countries should “go to the Strait and just take it.” He said the U.S. doesn’t need the Strait because we produce our own oil. He claimed it will “just open up naturally” once the war ends.

But the war isn’t ending. It’s continuing for at least 2-3 more weeks, according to Trump himself.

So oil stays high. Gas stays expensive. Inflation stays elevated. And recession odds keep climbing.

Here’s where it gets even weirder.

Thursday midday, Iranian state media reported that Iran is drafting a “protocol” with Oman to monitor traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.

Nobody knows what that means. Does “monitor” mean “reopen”? Does it mean Iran will let ships through? Or does it mean Iran is formalizing its control over who gets to pass and who doesn’t?

There are no details. No timeline. No confirmation from the U.S. or Oman. Just one headline from Iranian media.

And markets rallied on it.

Oil dropped $10 almost instantly. Stocks recovered most of their morning losses. The Nasdaq went from down 2% to down 0.4%. The Dow clawed back 400+ points.

Why? Because investors are desperate for good news. They’re exhausted. This is week five of the war. Every day brings a new headline that sends markets in a different direction.

• Tuesday, Trump said he’s willing to end the war even if the Strait stays closed. Markets rallied 2%+.
• Wednesday night, Trump said 2-3 more weeks of bombing. Markets crashed.
• Thursday morning, one unconfirmed report about a monitoring protocol. Markets recovered.

Nobody knows what to believe anymore. Nobody knows which version of events is real.

Is the war ending in 2-3 weeks, or is it going to drag on for months? Will the Strait reopen, or will Iran keep it closed and just charge tolls? Should you buy energy stocks because oil is going to $150, or should you sell them because the war is ending and oil will crash back to $80?

The answer is: nobody knows. Not professional investors. Not analysts. Not economists. Nobody.

Here’s what we do know:

Oil hit $113 Thursday. That’s a real number. If it stays there, gas goes higher. Inflation stays elevated. Consumer spending slows. Recession odds increase.

Markets are incredibly volatile. The VIX—Wall Street’s fear gauge—jumped 4.5% Thursday despite stocks recovering from their lows. Volatility creates opportunities, but it also creates danger. You can make money fast or lose it fast.

The war isn’t ending yet. Trump said 2-3 more weeks minimum. That’s his timeline, not Iran’s. Iran hasn’t agreed to anything. They’re still launching missiles. They attacked a Kuwaiti oil tanker Tuesday. They hit Saudi Arabia with drones Wednesday. They’re not acting like a country that’s about to surrender.

13 U.S. service members are dead. 348 are wounded. More than 2,000 Iranians have been killed. This isn’t a video game. Real people are dying while markets try to figure out if they should be up or down.

Trump’s mixed messages aren’t helping.Saying the war is “nearing completion” while also promising 2-3 more weeks of “extremely hard” strikes creates confusion. Confusion creates volatility. Volatility creates risk.

The Strait is still closed. That’s the core problem. As long as it stays closed, 20% of global oil stays offline. As long as that oil stays offline, prices stay elevated. As long as prices stay elevated, recession risk stays high.

One “monitoring protocol” report from Iranian media doesn’t change that. It might be the beginning of a reopening. Or it might be Iran formalizing its control. We don’t know yet.

So what do you do?

If you believe Trump’s version where the war ends “very shortly” and the Strait reopens quickly, you buy the dip.

Stocks are down 7-10% year-to-date. Energy stocks are up 35%, but everything else is beaten down. If oil falls back to $80 by May, those stocks will recover fast.

If you believe the war drags on for weeks or months and the Strait stays closed, you stay defensive.

Energy, utilities, consumer staples. Sectors that benefit from high oil prices or don’t get hurt by them.

If you’re not sure—and honestly, how could you be?—you wait.

Markets are closed Friday for Good Friday. That gives you three days to see what happens. Does Iran actually sign a protocol with Oman? Does Trump clarify his timeline? Does oil keep climbing or start falling?

You don’t have to make a decision Thursday afternoon based on a speech that said two opposite things and a headline nobody can verify.

The smart money is watching. Not panicking. Not chasing. Just watching.

Because here’s the truth: this war has been full of headlines that move markets 2% in a day, only to reverse the next day.

Trump says talks are progressing—markets rally. Iran denies talks—markets fall. Trump extends the deadline—markets rally. Trump threatens to destroy power plants—markets fall. Iran works on a monitoring protocol—markets rally.

Every. Single. Time.

And every single time, the underlying reality hasn’t changed. The Strait is still closed. Oil is still expensive. The war is still happening.

Until one of those three things actually changes—not just gets hinted at in a headline, but actually changes—the volatility continues.

Thursday was just another example. Markets opened in panic. Recovered on hope. Ended the day basically flat.

And oil is still $113.

Trump said the war will be over “very shortly.” He’s been saying that for weeks. He also said 2-3 more weeks of hard strikes. He also said discussions are ongoing. He also said the Strait will open “naturally.”

Which one is true? Maybe all of them. Maybe none of them.

What matters is what actually happens, not what gets said in a speech or reported in a headline.

If you’re investing right now, you’re betting on which version of events plays out. The quick resolution version, or the prolonged conflict version.

Choose carefully. Because the market is going to keep whipsawing until we get a real answer.

And nobody knows when that’s coming.

-Good Morning Alerts

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