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More Reading from MarketBeat.com

Pfizer Adds to Its Big Bet on Weight Loss Drugs

Authored by Jordan Chussler. Publication Date: 12/16/2025. 

What You Need to Know

• The health care sector has led the S&P 500 over the three months, but Pfizer has lagged of late, slipping 5% since the start of October.
• As the Big Pharma company continues to struggle to replace COVID-19 vaccine revenue, it is heavily learning into the semaglutide and GLP-1 weight loss drug trend.
• Last week, the company signed a $2.1 billion licensing agreement with a Chinese pharma company to develop its early-stage weight loss pill.

Health care stocks have been on a run lately, leading the S&P 500’s 11 sectors over the past three months with a gain of 11.55%. Unfortunately for some investors, that rally has not included all of the Big Pharma mainstays.

Pfizer (NYSE: PFE), the maker of Chantix, Eliquis and Paxlovid, has seen its shares slide about 5% since the start of October. By comparison, other mega-cap pharmaceutical companies such as Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ), Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: REGN), and Eli Lilly (NYSE: LLY) are up roughly 14%, 24%, and 25%, respectively, over the same period.

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And despite Pfizer making headlines on Nov. 13 after acquiring obesity biotech Metsera in a $10 billion deal, the stock has posted only a 0.23% gain since then.

The nearly 177-year-old biopharma company is once again looking to expand its role in the weight-loss drug market, with management and shareholders hoping that a bigger presence there can help offset waning demand for mRNA-based COVID-19 vaccines.

Pfizer Looks to Gain Market Share After Enormous Deal With YaoPharma

On Tuesday, Dec. 9, Pfizer struck a $2.1 billion licensing deal with China’s YaoPharma to develop a GLP-1 weight-loss pill that is in early-stage development. The drug works similarly to Wegovy, the game-changing weight-loss injection from competitor Novo Nordisk (NYSE: NVO).

News of a yet-to-be-approved pill may not move the stock immediately, but it does reflect Pfizer’s commitment and momentum in the obesity-treatment market.

Under the agreement, Pfizer will pay a $150 million upfront fee to YaoPharma’s parent, Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical, which has an $8.4 billion market cap.

Additionally, Pfizer could pay YaoPharma up to $1.94 billion in milestone payments if development and approval progress as expected, plus royalties on sales if the drug is approved. Those milestone payments are contingent upon YaoPharma successfully completing early trials, with Pfizer taking over later-stage development.

Pfizer also plans to run combination studies — currently in mid-stage development — pairing the Chinese firm’s pill with Pfizer’s GIP receptor-targeting compound, a strategy similar to Eli Lilly’s approach with its weight-loss drug Zepbound and its diabetes drug Mounjaro, which target both GLP-1 and GIP.

Pfizer Is Positioning Itself for the Future of the Weight-Loss Drug Market

The deal underscores how aggressively Pfizer’s executives are pursuing a long-term role in the GLP-1 and broader obesity-treatment market.

Over the past month the company has signaled willingness to invest roughly $10.1 billion toward that goal, underscoring how much importance it places on a rapidly growing industry.

Forecasts from market analysis firm Grand View Research suggest the GLP-1 weight-loss drug market could grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 18.54% from 2025 to 2030 — expanding from under $14 billion today to an estimated $48.84 billion by 2030.

Grand View Research also found that North America accounts for the largest revenue share, representing more than 75% of the GLP-1 agonists market. While alternatives such as lifestyle changes and bariatric surgery exist, GLP-1 drugs remain the preferred option for many physicians and patients.

Patient Investors Can Enjoy PFE’s Sizable Dividend

Shareholders are hoping Pfizer’s push into the weight-loss market pays off, after the stock has punished loyal investors with a loss of more than 31% over the past five years. Much of that decline stems from lower COVID-vaccine sales, which pushed the company’s revenue growth from more than 95% at the end of 2021 to a decline of over 41% by the end of 2023.

Last year Pfizer rebounded modestly, recording nearly a 7% increase in revenue. Meanwhile, the stock’s dividend yield has helped offset some investor concerns. Pfizer remains a strong dividend payer with a current yield of 6.65% — $1.72 per share annually. The payout has increased for 16 consecutive years, making the stock attractive to income investors despite a high payout ratio that raises questions for some.

For investors who are willing to take a longer-term view and are bullish on the near- and mid-term prospects of the prescription weight-loss market, Pfizer can provide income while serving as a speculative play in the GLP-1 space.

Growth-focused investors, however, may be less patient after another year of underperformance. Analysts’ average 12-month price target implies roughly 10% upside from the stock’s current price, and the consensus rating remains Hold.

Meanwhile, short interest has been steadily rising as the stock attracts Wall Street bears. Currently, about $3.58 billion worth of the float is shorted — nearly 84% more than PFE’s short position at the end of January 2025.

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