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It may be fall on the calendar, but there should be some serious heat tonight (6:40 p.m. ET, MLB.TV) in Cincinnati — on the mound, that is.

Tonight’s starting pitching matchup at Great American Ball Park is a doozy, with the Pirates sending Paul Skenes to the hill and the Reds countering with Hunter Greene. Both rank among the top five starters in average fastball velocity (combined four-seamers/sinkers) this season. Greene leads the way at 99.5 mph, while Skenes is tied for fifth at 98.1 (minimum 300 four-seamers/sinkers thrown).

But this isn’t just a showcase of two of baseball’s preeminent flamethrowers. It also carries legitimate stakes, with Cincinnati sitting one game behind the Mets in the race for the third National League Wild Card spot. The Reds are tied with the D-backs at 80-77 and would win a tiebreaker if they finish with the same record as either New York or Arizona. (They’d also win a three-team tiebreaker if all three teams finish with the same record.)

Cincinnati entered the series having won five straight but dropped a close game to the Bucs on Tuesday. It won’t get any easier against NL Cy Young Award favorite Skenes tonight. Making his final start of the season, Skenes not only has a chance to spoil the Reds’ playoff hopes but could also join an exclusive club of pitchers to post a sub-2.00 ERA in a qualified season, something only six pitchers have done in the past 10 full seasons (excluding 2020) — none since Justin Verlander in 2022. Our Theo DeRosa took a deeper look at the historical significance of the feat and what Skenes needs to do tonight to achieve it.

Skenes has faced the Reds once this season, holding them scoreless over six innings on Aug. 7 at PNC Park. In four career starts against them, he has allowed just one run with 33 K’s and two walks over 23 innings, going 4-0 in those outings.

Runs could also be hard to come by for the Pirates against Greene, who tossed a one-hit shutout with nine strikeouts against the Cubs his last time out. Greene touched 100 mph 29 times in the outing, tied for the fourth most any pitcher has had in a single outing this season. Who’s done it more? No one. The top three were all also Hunter Greene starts.

— Thomas Harrigan

• Mets @ Cubs (8:05 p.m. ET, ESPN): The Mets are hoping last night’s rally snapped them out of their second-half daze; now that they’re back in possession of the final NL Wild Card spot, their October fate is in their own hands. The suddenly stagnant Cubs, meanwhile, have dropped five straight and lead the Padres by just 1 1/2 games for the top Wild Card spot. Will the North Siders maintain enough of a grip to host a Wild Card Series next week?

• Dodgers @ D-backs (9:40 p.m. ET, MLB.TV): It’s not just the Cubs whom San Diego is chasing — the Dodgers’ lead atop the NL West is also down to 1 1/2 games, and the D-backs aren’t likely to give L.A. any breaks this week. Arizona enters tonight a game out of the playoff picture but first must solve Blake Snell, whose last two starts were vintage: 13 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 4 BB, 23 K.

• Rockies @ Mariners (9:40 p.m. ET, MLB.TV): Much has been made of the Guardians’ September ascent, for good reason, but the Mariners’ 15-1 run has also flipped the top of a division and has Seattle poised to celebrate its first AL West title since 2001. A win or an Astros loss tonight would secure that division crown for the Mariners, who still have an outside shot at claiming the AL’s top overall seed (2 games back with 5 to go; SEA does not own the tiebreaker with TOR or NYY).

The Guardians have pulled off something so improbable that it almost seems like some of the outlandish Hollywood fiction they’ve recently been involved with (Progressive Field was the backdrop for the latest Superman reboot). They’ve propelled themselves from rock bottom — 15 1/2 games out of first place on July 6 — to the soaring heights of first place, thanks to an incredible 17-5 September surge.

As our Anthony Castrovince notes, the Guardians have a chance to set a record for the largest deficit overcome by a league or division champion. If they hold on to the division lead — they have the tiebreaker over the sliding Tigers, who they’ll face again tonight at 6:40 p.m. ET on MLB.TV — the Guardians would best the 15 games overcome by the 1914 “Miracle” Boston Braves.

What’s more, Cleveland was 11 games out of first on Sept. 5. That was less than three weeks ago, for cryin’ out loud. For context, the largest September deficit ever overcome by an eventual division or league champion was the 8 1/2 games the Phillies overcame to win the NL East in 1964.

Equally impressive has been how the Guardians have made this comeback. They haven’t powered their surge with key Trade Deadline pickups (they were sellers, actually) or with a giant payroll.

No, the Guardians have made the most of a roster that could be considered modest when compared to other contenders. Sure, they have perennial MVP candidate José Ramírez, who’s having another 30-30 season, but for the most part this is a team that seems greater than the sum of its parts.

A lot of the credit for that should probably go to manager Stephen Vogt, who players say has set a tone of steadiness, even amid adversity. Not too high, not too low. A real Even Stephen.

Now, thanks to a red-hot final month, he and his team are on the precipice of history.

— Jason Foster

One reason 2025 might well be remembered as “The Year of The Big Dumper” (even if Cal Raleigh doesn’t win the AL MVP) is the number of times he’s etched his name into the record books. Most homers by a primary catcher? Check. Most homers by someone while playing catcher? Check. Most homers by a switch-hitter and a Mariner? Checkand check.

But while the reigning Home Run Derby winner chases 60 long balls and the MLB homer crown, there are plenty of other statistical milestones to keep an eye on as the season winds down, including 6-foot-7 Yankees superstar Aaron Judge attempting to be the tallest player to win a batting crown and Shohei Ohtani establishing another 50-50 club just one year after his historic Dodgers debut campaign.

Our Anthony Castrovince has those interesting tidbits covered and plenty more in his ode to 2025’s most bonkers stats.

— Ed Eagle

There might not be an award for Slide of the Year yet, but Mickey Moniak, for his Matrix-like moves, Chase Meidroth, for his stutter step, and Bobby Witt Jr., for his nifty hand slide at home, would be leading contenders.

The Twins’ Ryan Fitzgerald might have one-upped them all last night with a pancake-flip slide that can only be described as delicious.

Now, we eagerly await a player landing a double somersault at third base while legging out a triple.

Harrison Bader has quickly become a fan favorite in Philly since coming over at the Trade Deadline, and he’s being honored with a new ballpark delicacy. Head out to Citizens Bank Park for their final homestand of the season to try “Bader tots,” loaded with American cheese sauce, crumbled bacon, Cheddar Jack cheese, sour cream and scallions. You Bader come hungry.

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