RJ Hamster
Why UBS Predicts Gold at $4,900 – And Beyond
| UnsubscribeIs this Nvidia’s secret weapon? (From The Oxford Club)Gold to $5,000? What Bank of America and UBS Have to SayWritten by Jeffrey Neal Johnson on November 29, 2025 Key PointsBank of America and UBS are forecasting a continued bull market for gold driven by supportive macroeconomic policies and persistent fiscal pressure.Global central banks continue to purchase precious metals at a historic pace to diversify their reserves and provide a strong floor for the broader market.The SPDR Gold Shares ETF offers investors a highly liquid, cost-effective way to gain direct exposure to the potential upside of the gold market.Gold prices have undeniably taken a breather. After a historic run that saw the precious metal shatter record after record, surging past $4,500 per ounce in mid-October, the market has entered a distinct consolidation phase. Prices are currently trading in a tight range around $4,150. For investors, this cooling period raises a complex and pressing question: Was that the peak of the cycle, or is this simply a strategic pause before the next leg up?According to a new Year Ahead outlook from Bank of America, the answer leans heavily toward the latter. The bank’s strategists argue that the gold sector is currently in a unique and potentially profitable position. While the price action looks technically overbought in the short term due to the rapid ascent in 2025, the asset class remains structurally underinvested.This distinction is critical for investors to understand. It suggests that while prices have risen, the broader investment community has not yet fully crowded into the trade. There is still significant capital sitting on the sidelines, waiting for an entry point. Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) argues that the macroeconomic environment that fueled gold’s rally (which includes concerns over fiscal policy and currency stability) remains firmly intact. This combination of strong fundamentals and available capital sets the stage for a potential resurgence, suggesting the bull market has plenty of room left to run.“Skim” $6,361 with an 18-digit code? (Ad)A former hedge fund manager who made $274 million in profits for his clients says “yes.” How? With something he calls “Skim Codes.” You just type the code into a regular brokerage account.Get the full breakdown now for freeBank of America’s Path to $5,000Bank of America strategists, led by Michael Widmer, project gold could reach $5,000 per ounce in 2026, with an expected average of $4,538 per ounce for the year. This aggressive forecast is driven by unorthodox U.S. economic policies, specifically growing government deficits and national debt, which erode the dollar’s purchasing power and push investors toward hard assets. While a hawkish Fed poses a risk, the bank sees fiscal pressure as the dominant, persistent force driving gold’s long-term strength.A Growing Consensus for GoldA consensus among top banks, including Bank of America (BofA) and UBS (NYSE: UBS), forecasts a continued bull market for gold, validating the investment thesis. UBS recently raised its upside forecast to $4,900 per ounce by Q2 2026, citing persistent political and financial risks that are driving investors toward safe-haven assets. This suggests a progression of higher targets linked to the severity of economic debasement, offering investors a ladder of potential outcomes.2026 Average Projection (BofA): $4,538 per ounceUpside Case Q2 2026 (UBS): $4,900 per ouncePeak Target 2026 (BofA): $5,000 per ounceLong-Term Debasement Model (BofA): $6,000 per ounceThis ladder of price targets suggests that $5,000 is not viewed as an unrealistic ceiling, but rather as the next logical milestone in a multi-year trend.The hidden opportunity behind the Fed rate cut (Ad)The Fed’s latest rate cut has already pushed fresh capital into the market, and with another cut still on the table for December, momentum could build even faster. When liquidity expands like this, volume tends to surge — creating short-term windows traders can take advantage of if they know where to focus. After years of managing private client capital, I’ve found one indicator that consistently helps identify where the strongest volume is flowing and when conditions are lining up for potential entries or exits. It won’t guarantee outcomes, but it provides clear, repeatable signals in any market environment.See how the indicator works hereWhy Gold Has a Safety NetDespite high price targets, concerns about a market crash are mitigated by a massive floor created by central banks and supply constraints. Société Générale reports that China’s actual gold purchases may be more than ten times the official figures, potentially exceeding 5,000 tons. This unreported demand acts as a safety net, supporting prices by removing physical supply.Furthermore, Bank of America highlights a broad scarcity of precious metals, forecasting silver to average $60 per ounce in 2026 due to supply deficits. The bull market is thus driven by physical scarcity across the precious metals complex, not just financial speculation.How to Invest in the RallyFor investors looking to position their portfolios for a potential move to $5,000, the SPDR Gold Shares (NYSEARCA: GLD) remains a primary vehicle for efficient exposure.SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) is the largest physically backed gold exchange-traded fund (ETF) in the world, with over $138 billion in assets under management. Its massive scale provides high liquidity, with an average daily volume of over 12 million shares. This makes it easy for investors to enter and exit positions, a crucial feature when navigating a volatile market.The fund has delivered exceptional performance for shareholders. Year-to-date, GLD is up approximately 57%, significantly outperforming the broader S&P 500.Over five years, the fund has returned 124% or more, proving its value as a long-term compounding asset. With a net expense ratio of 0.40%, it offers a cost-effective way to track the metal’s price without the premiums and storage fees associated with physical bullion.Interestingly, recent data provides a potential contrarian buy signal. Short interest in GLD has jumped to 14.13 million shares, a substantial increase. In a rising market, high short interest can often act as fuel for a rally. Suppose the price rises toward the Bank of America targets. In that case, these short sellers may be forced to cover their positions by buying shares, potentially triggering a short squeeze where the share growth accelerates briefly. Despite the recent price consolidation, smart money investors have largely held their ground. Institutional ownership in GLD remains high at over 42%. More importantly, over the last 12 months, the fund has seen total institutional inflows of $24.84 billion, far outweighing outflows. This indicates that large asset managers are using pullbacks to accumulate shares rather than exiting the trade.With GLD trading around $380, the current consolidation may offer a strategic entry point. If the price of gold moves toward the implied Bank of America target of $5,000, GLD would track that performance, offering a simplified way to capture the upside without the logistical challenges of holding physical bars.Positioning for the Next Leg UpThe gold market has paused, but the story is far from over. The macroeconomic drivers that propelled the metal to record highs in 2025, specifically the unorthodox fiscal policies identified by Bank of America, remain structural and persistent.With major banks outlining a credible pathway to $5,000 per ounce and strong institutional support providing a floor, the current market consolidation offers a compelling risk-to-reward ratio. For investors willing to look past the short-term noise, 2026 is shaping up to be another record-breaking year for the yellow metal.Read this article online ›Featured Stories:Intel’s Black Friday Breakout: Apple Rumors Fuel a Holiday RallyWe’re on the brink of another crypto supercycle (From ProsperityPub)Klarna’s Crypto Play: A Plan to Fix Its Profit Problem7 Tiny “Trump Stocks” Poised for Large Moves (From TradingTips)Meta Platforms May Ditch NVIDIA Chips—Here’s Why Investors CareSoFi Technologies: From Fintech Speculation to Profit EngineMarketBeat Week in Review – 11/24 – 11/28 Did you find this article helpful? Thank you for subscribing to MarketBeat! MarketBeat empowers everyday investors to make better financial decisions by offering real-time financial information and unbiased investment analysis. If you have questions about your newsletter, please email our South Dakota based support team at contact@marketbeat.com. 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