“I want to focus on stacking up base hits and not worrying about having seven or eight different swing trades on at any given time.”
Nate Bear, Lead Technical Tactician, Monument Traders Alliance
Hey Gang!
Thursday’s 200-point reversal proves exactly what I meant about August being a trader ego challenge.
I’m going to say this straight up: I called August tricky for swing trading, and seven days in, the market is serving exactly the kind of humble pie I expected.
Yesterday’s Dow action – is Exhibit A for why I’m treating this month differently.
The Day Laborer Approach
Here’s my mindset shift: I want to focus on stacking up base hits and not worrying about having seven or eight different swing trades on at any given time.
Think about it like this – where can I put some money to work and basically have the ticker be like a day laborer? I don’t necessarily want to hire you. I don’t want you to be part of my long-term growth plan. I just want you to come move some stuff around, help me make a little money today, and then I’m sending you on your way.
What that means in this environment:
Smaller bets and shorter time frames
In and out before the market can serve you another reversal sandwich
Base hits, not home run swings
The Statistical Edge I’m Watching
Here’s something that caught my attention: When a stock makes a move 1.5X greater than its expected move, it tends to have huge follow-through.
To All Americans Born Before April 16th, 1963:
Did Trump Just Give The Green Light To Radically RE-DO Social Security?
What we just discovered in Washington will stun even the most seasoned insiders.
Addison Wiggin has the full story in this urgent presentation — including a major government announcement coming as soon as September 30.
Take Shopify (SHOP). It’s a recent earnings winner, going from $127 to as high as $156 this week. The expected move for SHOP for earnings was 10.4% – that’s what the options market was pricing in. But SHOP actually moved 22%.
We saw this pattern recently in META, where the expected move was 5.7% and the actual move was 11.3%. META hit a high after earnings of $774.89, then dipped the next day to as low as $745.31, and climbed back up to the $760s.
Real Trading, Real Results
I tried buying weakness on SHOP yesterday – had success with one trade and failed on my second attempt. That’s the reality of trading in this environment.
Even with statistical edges, you’re not going to bat 1.000.
But here’s what I learned: After watching the Nasdaq sell off with everything else during yesterday’s reversal, any trade I take will be in and out, very short-term focused.
Your Action Plan
If the Nasdaq can regain momentum above yesterday’s highs, I think there’s a way to make money long SHOP via call options. But given Thursday’s market character – that violent morning-to-afternoon reversal – I’m treating every position like a day laborer job.
During Calvin Coolidge’s presidency, America saw the number of millionaires surge by over 2,000%.
Now, with Trump implementing the same economic playbook – cutting taxes, slashing regulations, and unleashing American innovation – we could see an even bigger wealth explosion.
But this time, we have something Coolidge never had: AI and transformative technology that could amplify these policies beyond anything seen in history.
See Bill O’Reilly’s new interview with Oxford Club Chief Investment Strategist Alexander Green who will reveal how to position yourself for what could be the greatest wealth-building opportunity of our lifetime.
You are receiving this email because you subscribed to Trade of the Day Wake-Up Watchlist.
To unsubscribe from Trade of the Day Wake-Up Watchlist, click here.
Questions? Check out our FAQs. Trying to reach us? Contact us here. Please do not reply to this email as it goes to an unmonitored inbox.
To cancel by mail or for any other subscription issues, write us at: Trade of the Day | 14 West Mount Vernon Place | Baltimore, MD 21201
Nothing published by Monument Traders Alliance should be considered personalized investment advice. Although our employees may answer your general customer service questions, they are not licensed under securities laws to address your particular investment situation. No communication by our employees to you should be deemed personalized investment advice. We allow the editors of our publications to recommend securities that they own themselves. However, our policy prohibits editors from exiting a personal trade while the recommendation to subscribers is open. In no circumstance may an editor sell a security before subscribers have a fair opportunity to exit. The length of time an editor must wait after subscribers have been advised to exit a play depends on the type of publication. All other employees and agents must wait 24 hours after publication before trading on a recommendation.
Any investments recommended by Monument Traders Alliance should be made only after consulting with your investment advisor and only after reviewing the prospectus or financial statements of the company.
Protected by copyright laws of the United States and international treaties. The information found on this website may only be used pursuant to the membership or subscription agreement and any reproduction, copying or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including on the world wide web), in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Monument Traders Alliance, LLC, 14 West Mount Vernon Place, Baltimore, MD 21201.