RJ Hamster

When Gold Screams, This Producer Turns It Into Cash

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When Gold Screams, This Producer Turns It Into Cash

Gold just glistened into all-time highs.

The smartest play isn’t coins, it’s the operator with scale, low costs, and real torque to price.

If bullion holds here, expect free cash, buybacks, and estimates to move higher.

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Hewlett-Packard Enterprise

Ticker: HPE | Market Cap: $29.7B

| Catalyst: Post-analyst-day reset meets valuation tug-of-war

An 8% slide after the Securities Analyst Meeting says expectations got ahead of the story. HPE laid out growth aims in servers, storage, and networking (including high-performance compute and hybrid cloud), but the room wanted Arista- or Dell-level oomph.

Financials are fine, not fabulous. Low single-digit revenue compound annual growth rate (CAGR) lately, margins inching higher, and a dividend that pays you to be patient. The Altman Z and liquidity metrics aren’t love notes, but a balanced leverage profile and recurring service mix help.

At ~2.3% yield and a P/E flirting with cycle highs, it’s a show-me stretch, yet dips on guidance haircuts can set up decent entries if orders and AI-adjacent compute stay resilient.

What you should watch: Order intake and backlog in AI/HPC nodes, GreenLake Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) growth, and any commentary on pricing vs. component costs. If management converts the pipeline to cleaner revenue growth while protecting gross margin, the post-SAM sulk can fade.

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Capital One

Ticker: COF | Total Assets: $129.9B | Catalyst: Q3 print with Discover integration + provisions in focus

Earnings land Oct. 21 after the bell, and the tape will obsess over three things: Net Interest Income (NII), fees, and provisions. The good news is that NII should benefit from loan growth and a near-steady rate backdrop for most of the quarter.

Fee lines (interchange and service charges) likely pop with higher card usage and the Discover deal. The drag is operating expenses and credit costs are up as macro wobbles, inflation’s tariff aftershocks hang around, and portfolios season.

The headline P/E looks bonkers right now (deal noise and reserve math), but that’s why the quarter matters: clarity can compress the optical multiple fast. COF’s surprise track record is solid; just don’t forget it’s still a credit cycle stock.

What you should watch: Net charge-offs, 30/90-day delinquencies, reserve build methodology, and Discover synergy run-rate updates. If credit metrics stabilize and revenue synergies show up on time, the stock can re-rate despite a heavier expense base.

Cooper Companies

Ticker: COO | Market Cap: $14.2B | Catalyst: Lens mix shift, buyback firepower, and myopia optionality

The contact lens market remains wonderfully boring, but in the best way. It’s defensive, sticky, and quietly tilting to higher-value silicone hydrogel (SiHy) dailies, where Cooper’s portfolio is loaded.

Stifel stays constructive with an $85 target and highlighted strong physician diligence; management also expanded its buyback authorization to $2B, which is non-trivial at this size. Near term, investors are still digesting a guidance reset and a mixed quarter, so sentiment is bruised.

Medium term, increased manufacturing capacity for MyDay and a vast pediatric myopia market (MiSight and the broader management suite) can reset growth optics.

What you should watch: Daily SiHy share gains, pricing and promo discipline versus big peers, and myopia management adoption (prescriber training + insurance coverage anecdotes). If free cash flow inflects with lens mix and buybacks stay active, the multiple has room to heal.

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Mettler-Toledo

Ticker: MTD | Market Cap: $28.0B | Catalyst: Quality-control tailwinds and a valuation debate after a beat

The precision instruments leader just delivered above-consensus results with broad-based segment strength, reminding everyone why the franchise commands a premium.

The cross-current is some models flag modest undervaluation while discounted cash flow (DCF) purists see it a touch rich, classic which spreadsheet are we using energy.

The bigger picture is cleaner: tighter regulatory standards in life sciences and food, more automated QA/QC, and rising demand for audit-proof analytics support steady mix and pricing. China/Europe macro is still the wobble, but MTD’s execution through mud is the feature.

What you should watch: Orders and book-to-bill in pharma/bioprocess, pricing vs. elasticity, and any incremental service/consumables attach that fattens recurring revenue. If backlog converts and regional headwinds ease even a little, operating leverage can surprise on the upside.

Newmont

Ticker: NEM | Market Cap: $107.9B | Catalyst: Record gold prices powering operating leverage

Gold just printed fresh highs, and Newmont, still the global production heavyweight, is doing what it does when the metal runs: expanding margins and sentiment at the same time.

Shares have ripped this week and now push 52-week highs, but the fundamental driver is straightforward. Tighter macro nerves (trade frictions, budget drama, correction chatter) are funneling flows into bullion, and miners are the torque.

Newmont produced ~6.8M oz last year and expects ~5.9M oz for 2025, with AISC discipline, every $100/oz in price is meaningful to free cash flow. Yes, the multiple is richer than the trailing average, but in cycles like this, price > model.

What you should watch: Updated 2025–26 production and cost guidance versus realized pricing, hedging disclosures (or lack thereof), and any capital returns cadence (dividends/buybacks) tied to the windfall. If spot holds near recent highs into Q4, estimates likely have more catching up to do.

Poll: What’s your market philosophy distilled?

“Be early or be right”

“Don’t fight the Fed”

“Time > timing”

“Everything reverts eventually”

Final Word

Different lanes, same play. Let catalysts do the talking. If gold glitters, Newmont’s math stays simple. If HPE converts pipeline into cleaner growth, the post-meeting hangover fades.

If Capital One’s credit holds while Discover synergies show, the optical P/E deflates. If Cooper executes on SiHy dailies and myopia, multiple repair follows. And if Mettler keeps compounding through choppy geographies, you own a quality engine.

Pick your fighter, size your risk, and let numbers drive the next move.

That’s all for today. Thank you for reading. If you have any feedback, please reply to this email.

Best Regards,

— Adam Garcia
Elite Trade Club

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RJ Hamster