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EDITOR’S NOTE
The telecom industry is worth $3.2 trillion.
AT&T. Verizon. T-Mobile. Comcast.
They’ve had a monopoly on how you connect to the world. Charging whatever they want.
Most equity investors know that mega cap tech stocks have led the market higher this year – and over the past several years.
Fewer investors understand how that outperformance has affected the composition of the leading stock market index: the S&P 500.
Or how that is likely to adversely affect their returns going forward.
That’s a bold claim, so let’s unpack this…
Tech now accounts for a record 35% of the index’s total market capitalization of $54 trillion.
That’s up from 20% at the end of 2018.
Yet, astonishingly, that 35% figure actually understates the true tech weighting of the index.
How?
S&P Dow Jones Indices – which oversees the benchmark – categorizes Meta Platforms and Alphabet not as tech companies but as communication services stocks.
E-commerce leader Amazon is classified as a consumer discretionary stock.
And Tesla – a leader in artificial intelligence, robotics, and autonomous driving – is classified as an auto play.
Put these four behemoths into the tech category where they belong and the sector weighting in the S&P 500 grows to a whopping 45%.
That would be great if history showed that tech stocks are perpetual outperformers.
But what history shows is that the sector tends to overheat. And then it starts to lag, sometimes badly.
When that happens – as it has in every previous market cycle – look out below.
Don’t get me wrong. I’m a fan of indexing.
For example, The Oxford Club’s strong performing Gone Fishin’ Portfolio is made up of 10 different index funds.
However, the S&P 500 is not one of them.
More to the point, tech valuations are at nosebleed levels. And I’m not a fan of overweighting the frothiest part of the market.
So what should buy-and-hold investors do who believe in broad diversification and rock-bottom fees?
Invest in an equal-weight S&P 500 index, like Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (NYSE: RSP).
Unlike the traditional market cap weighted S&P 500, each stock in this fund carries the same weight, avoiding overexposure to mega-cap companies.
(For example, giants like Nvidia and Microsoft represent just 0.2% apiece in this portfolio versus several percent in a traditional S&P 500 index fund.)
Reduced concentration lessens the risk tied to sector bubbles or individual high-flyers.
Quarterly rebalancing adds a “buy low, sell high” dynamic, increasing exposure to laggards and trimming outperformers.
Equal-weight indexes provide higher yields, offering more income for investors.
They also offer greater participation from small and mid-sized firms, which – believe it or not – have historically provided superior returns to large caps. Just not lately.
What are the drawbacks?
Well, you can guess the first: potential underperformance during mega cap tech rallies.
Small- and mid-sized stocks can also be more volatile, making the funds themselves a bit more volatile.
There is also higher turnover – and thus higher costs. The fund above has an average expense ratio of 0.2%.
That’s tiny but still twice the expense ratio of the SPDR S&P 500 Trust (NYSE: SPY).
Plus, the quarterly rebalancing in an equal-weight fund has tax ramifications.
Whereas most index funds are highly tax efficient, these funds occasionally distribute realized capital gains after top performers are trimmed back.
That’s why equal-weight funds are ideally owned in a qualified retirement plan where they will compound tax-deferred.
However, die-hard indexers often say there is a single overriding reason they prefer the market cap weighted approach to an equal-weighted one.
Higher returns.
No one can argue that equal-weighted index funds have outperformed market-weighted ones over the past few years. They haven’t.
However, they certainly have over the long haul.
Over the past 25 years, in fact, MSCI’s U.S. equal-weight index has outperformed its size-weighted counterpart by an average of 1.2 percentage points a year.
Some readers may think that’s not a big deal. But it is.
An investor in an equal-weight fund would be one-third richer at the end of the period.
In other words, if your investment in a traditional S&P 500 over the past 25 years grew to $1 million, congratulations!
Yet it takes some of the shine off to learn that the same investment in an equal-weighted index over the same period would have grown to more than $1.3 million.
(Or that $10 million would have turned into over $13 million.)
The second approach required no additional time. No additional work. Just a tiny tweak that made a difference of hundreds of thousands – or millions – of dollars.
So these are the considerable advantages: less concentration risk, more income, and vastly higher long-term performance.
If you have fresh money to put to work today – especially if it’s in a retirement account – it should go into an equal-weight index not a market cap weighted index.
And that’s especially true with mega cap tech valuations where they are today.
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