What Fear in November Tells Us About Today’s Market

By Vic Lederman, publisher, Chaikin AnalyticsThe market sure feels wild right now, folks…

Of course, it isn’t only a frothy mix of domestic and global politics influencing the markets.

We’ve seen rapidly changing investor sentiment over AI… and even a crash in the cryptocurrency space.

On Friday, my colleague Ethan Goldman also discussed how some of the most popular, big-name stocks from last year have been struggling… even with stronger-than-expected earnings numbers.

It’s no surprise that this has contributed to plenty of volatility in the major indexes…

Regular readers know that we track the S&P 500 Index with the State Street SPDR S&P 500 Fund (SPY). And we track the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 Index via the Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ).

Last week, SPY fell more than 2% in three trading days before clawing back gains on Friday. And a similar story played out with QQQ. It dropped by nearly 5% before paring losses at the end of the week.

Naturally, those falls drove investor fear higher…

We can see it clearly with CNN’s Fear and Greed Index. It’s a gauge of investor sentiment based on seven indicators.

The Fear and Greed Index hit a recent peak of 65 out of 100 on January 27. That’s firmly in the “greed” category.

But by this past Thursday, the index had plunged to 34… which is “fear” territory.

In its reading earlier this morning, the Fear and Greed Index stood at 49 out of 100. That’s a “neutral” level.

I don’t blame investors for being scared amid all this volatility. However, we went through something similar late last year. And no matter what happens going forward with the markets, it’s a good reminder to keep a level head…Recommended Links:

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History Doesn’t Repeat Itself, But It Often Rhymes

In November 2025, the U.S. was fresh off the longest government shutdown in history.

Plenty of tech stocks reported better-than-expected earnings. But they still saw tired investors head for the exits.

And of course, the Fear and Greed Index sat at 32 when I shared a similar message in a November Chaikin PowerFeed issue.

You see, over the past decade, November has been the best month for SPY, on average. And also on average, it’s the second-best month for QQQ.

On the surface, February looks like the opposite of November.

On average over the past 10 years, it’s the second-worst month for both SPY and QQQ.

SPY averaged a loss of 0.3% in the month of February over that period. And QQQ did a bit worse. It averaged a loss of 0.4% for the same month during that time frame.

Overall, a monthly loss like that doesn’t seem so bad. And given the chaos we’ve seen recently, I doubt many folks would complain too much if the markets ended up losing less than half a percentage point this month.

But the story gets more complex when we dive deeper into it…

This February Could Be Better Than Expected

In the table below, you’ll note that not every February in the past decade ended on a sour note…You’ll also see that February 2020 saw unusually large losses for both funds…

And you can probably guess the cause – the market collapse during the global COVID-19 pandemic.

In that context, those big losses for SPY and QQQ make sense.

And when we exclude those outliers, the numbers change quite a bit. You can see that both funds average a small gain instead of a small loss in that new dataset.

I don’t have a crystal ball. So I can’t say that we’ll end up having a good February. And we all know historical trends don’t guarantee a future outcome.

But we can’t afford to panic, either…

Yes, we’ve seen plenty of chaos out there. And the markets have been volatile. But remember that volatility can cut both ways – to the upside and the downside.

And even if the markets don’t end on a high note this February, at least we aren’t dealing with a global pandemic as well.

Good investing,

Vic Lederman

Market View

Major Indexes and Notable Sectors  # HLD:    BULLISH    NEUTRAL    BEARISHDow 30

+0.04%918 3S&P 500

+0.48%125280 92Nasdaq

+0.77%2549 26Small Caps

+0.7%661926 302Bonds

-0.02%Information Technology

+1.57%2235 11

— According to the Chaikin Power Bar, Small Cap stocks and Large Cap stocks are  Bullish. Major indexes are mixed.*  *  *  *

Sector Tracker

Sector movement over the last 5 daysEnergy+7.17%Materials+5.1%Industrials+3.68%Consumer Staples+3.47%Real Estate+3.15%Utilities+2.02%Health Care+0.4%Financial-0.17%Information Technology-1.31%Communication-2.33%Consumer Discretionary-3.62%*  *  *  *

Industry Focus

Retail Services104518

Over the past 6 months, the Retail subsector (XRT) has outperformed the S&P 500 by +0.76%. However, its Power Bar ratio, which measures future potential, is Weak, with more Bearish than Bullish stocks. It is currently ranked #17 of 21subsectors and has moved down 1 slot over the past week.Indicative StocksAZOAutoZone, Inc.BKEThe Buckle, Inc.BBWIBath & Body Works, I*  *  *  *

Top Movers

GainersAPP+13.19%ORCL+9.64%GLW+7.56%Q+7.11%VTRS+6.72%LosersWAT-13.94%WTW-12.1%AJG-9.85%AON-9.27%MRSH-7.51%*  *  *  *

Earnings Report

Earnings SurprisesAPO 
Apollo Global Management, Inc. Q4 $2.47 Beat by $0.43CINF 
Cincinnati Financial Corporation Q4 $3.37 Beat by $0.48ACGL 
Arch Capital Group Ltd. Q4 $2.98 Beat by $0.41MEDP 
Medpace Holdings, Inc. Q4 $4.67 Beat by $0.44BDX 
Becton, Dickinson and Company Q1 $2.91 Beat by $0.10*  *  *  *

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