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Special Report
Qualcomm Is Back at 2020 Levels—Warning or Opportunity?
Author: Sam Quirke. Posted: 2/5/2026.
Key Points
- Qualcomm has erased all gains from the past two years after a brutal pre- and post-earnings selloff.
- Structural issues in handsets and weakening confidence make this a clear warning sign for long-term investors.
- However, extremely oversold conditions could still create short-term trading opportunities amid elevated volatility.
After reporting disappointing earnings on Feb. 4 after the market close, Qualcomm Inc (NASDAQ: QCOM) left investors wondering what is going wrong. The stock is now trading below $140, down from $185 just a month ago. That represents a steep slide over a very short period, capped by a sharp post-earnings drop on Thursday morning.
Most importantly, Qualcomm has given up the gains it built over the past two years. The stock is back to 2020 levels — a sobering position for a company that has repeatedly pitched itself as a semiconductor company well positioned for the AI revolution.
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Already on shaky ground entering earnings, Qualcomm did little to restore investor confidence with its Q1 report. (Qualcomm’s fiscal year runs ahead of the calendar year.) While the headline numbers avoided disaster, management’s bearish forward guidance was enough to trigger a fresh collapse in sentiment. Could there still be an opportunity for those with a risk appetite, or was the guidance a warning too clear to ignore? Let’s take a look.
Why This Is a Warning Sign for Long-Term Investors
The core issue is what the latest report implies about Qualcomm’s structural challenges. Management cited industry pressures tied to memory supply constraints and softness in handset demand. These factors are not unique to Qualcomm, but they matter more because the company remains heavily exposed to smartphones despite efforts to diversify. Automotive, Internet of Things (IoT), and licensing are often highlighted as growth areas, but they have yet to offset weakness in the core business when conditions deteriorate.
This matters because Qualcomm has a history of struggling to sustain rallies. Each time optimism builds around a rebound or the diversification narrative, the stock has rolled over, and this latest selloff fits that pattern. The market is right to question again whether Qualcomm can deliver durable growth rather than periodic spikes.
Analyst sentiment has shifted noticeably. Several firms reacted to the earnings by reiterating or downgrading to neutral stances, and some commentary turned outright bearish — HSBC warned it could be “difficult to forecast a potential bottom.”
The result is a loss of credibility. Long-term investors who stayed through multiple cycles are now looking at a stock that has gone nowhere over half a decade, despite repeated promises of transformation. From that perspective, this earnings report reads more like a warning than a reset.
Where Traders Might See a Short-Term Opportunity
That said, while the long-term picture looks damaged, the short-term setup could be different. The speed and magnitude of the selloff have pushed Qualcomm into extremely oversold territory, and momentum indicators are flashing levels rarely seen over the past decade. That doesn’t guarantee a full rebound, but it raises the odds of a sharp bounce once selling pressure starts to ease.
There are early signs of this dynamic. After opening sharply lower the day after earnings, the stock showed signs of support by the afternoon. It will be worth watching whether that support holds in the coming sessions.
Even among analysts who have turned cautious, many revised price targets remain well above the current share price. Bank of America has a $155 target; Cantor Fitzgerald, $160; and Rosenblatt reiterated its Buy rating with a $190 target.
Whether those targets are reached over the next year is uncertain, but in the near term they suggest pessimism could be overextended.
How to Think About the Setup
The key is to separate investing from trading. For long-term investors, this report raises uncomfortable questions. Until Qualcomm proves it can sustain growth and hold gains, patience and caution are warranted.
For short-term traders, the picture is different. Extreme oversold conditions, violent moves, and heavy pessimism create an environment where relief rallies can be sharp and profitable — provided risk is managed tightly.
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