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Further Reading from MarketBeat.com

Why It’s Not Time to Give Up on the Gold Trade 

By Chris Markoch. Article Published: 3/28/2026. 

Key Points

• Gold’s recent pullback reflects a stronger U.S. dollar and profit-taking, but long-term fundamentals still point to higher prices.
• The U.S. fiscal outlook, including a $42 trillion net deficit and rising Treasury yields, strengthens the case for gold as a hedge.
• Investors can gain exposure through GLD for direct price tracking, GDX for leveraged upside, or Newmont for income and stability.
• Special Report: Elon Musk’s $1 Quadrillion AI IPO

What’s going on with gold? After surging above $5,000 per ounce, gold has retraced roughly 20%. That pullback isn’t surprising after such a strong move, but it does raise the question: why? The conventional wisdom is that the dollar has strengthened because, while the U.S. economy has its own debt problems (more on that below), it’s still the best house in a bad global neighborhood. Much of the world’s business is still denominated in dollars.

Since the dollar and gold typically move in opposite directions, a stronger dollar often means a lower gold price. That explanation has some merit. It’s also likely that many speculators who hopped on the gold train as it climbed decided to cash out and lock in gains.

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It’s futile to try to forecast precisely where gold will be next week or next month, let alone one or five years from now. But the longer-term trend for gold, and for many other basic materials, is likely to be higher. Evidence supporting that view came straight from the federal government.

U.S. Debt Strengthens Gold’s Long-Term Case

In March 2026, the U.S. government published the “Financial Report of the United States Government for fiscal year 2025.” This annual Treasury report provides an accounting of what the country owns and what it owes.

This year’s report showed assets of about $6 trillion against liabilities nearing $48 trillion. In accounting terms, that implies a negative net worth of roughly $42 trillion — the largest shortfall on record.

You don’t have to be an accountant to see how problematic that is. What makes the situation worse is that the report doesn’t fully account for long-term obligations such as Social Security and other unfunded mandates.

Compounding the risk is the 10‑year Treasury yield, which was about 4.34% as of March 25. That level has been roughly stable for two years, but there’s an important distinction: in past crises (for example, during the Iran crisis), global investors often piled into U.S. Treasuries as a safe haven. That hasn’t happened this time.

Now consider that the United States is seeking an emergency $200 billion in funding for operations related to Iran. If the conflict continues, that could be just a down payment. Should the Treasury lack sufficient revenue, the likely response would be more money creation and, with it, higher inflation — a tailwind for gold prices.

Gold’s Role Is Wealth Preservation, Not Growth

As noted above, one reason gold has pulled back is that speculators sold to realize gains. That’s understandable, and as Warren Buffett has said, gold is “just a metal.” The real rationale for owning gold is wealth preservation, not aggressive growth.

Many gold holders would admit that in an ideal world they wouldn’t need it. But the government’s own accounting underscores that the world isn’t perfect. Gold functions as insurance against that imperfect reality.

Gold will always have critics, but even Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) has suggested investors might allocate up to 20% of a traditional portfolio to gold. There are ways to gain exposure beyond holding physical bullion. Here are three compelling choices.

GLD ETF: A Simple Way to Track Gold Prices

The SPDR Gold Shares ETF (NYSE: GLD)tracks the price of physical gold bullion stored in vaults, offering direct exposure without the hassles of personal storage. With a low expense ratio of 0.40%, it provides liquidity and ease for portfolio integration.

GLD is a good option for conservative investors seeking a hedge against inflation and dollar weakness, particularly given recent U.S. debt concerns. However, shares represent “paper gold,” which introduces counterparty and operational risks in extreme crises, so it may not be ideal as the sole long-term store of value.

GDX ETF: Amplified Exposure to Gold’s Upside

If gold makes a sustained move higher, gold mining stocks typically outperform. Instead of selecting individual miners, the VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (NYSE: GDX) holds a diversified basket of major gold producers, offering leveraged upside through miners’ operational sensitivity to higher gold prices. Its 0.51% expense ratio balances cost with broad sector coverage, making it suitable for investors seeking higher upside amid geopolitical tensions and fiscal uncertainty.

Newmont: Income and Stability in a Volatile Market

Newmont Corporation (NYSE: NEM), the world’s largest gold producer, offers direct equity in a proven miner with strong reserves and steady production. Trading at more attractive valuations after the recent pullback, Newmont benefits from cost efficiencies and pays a dividend yielding approximately 1%. It can be a choice for investors looking to blend income with gold’s safe-haven characteristics during uncertain fiscal times.

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