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Exclusive Story

Chewy Gobbles up Market Share in 2026: Poised to Advance in Q2

Submitted by Thomas Hughes. Publication Date: 3/27/2026. 

Key Points

• Chewy is on track to rebound in 2026 as its growth, margin, and cash flow invigorate buyers to action.
• Industry-leading growth and market share gains underpin the outlook.
• Optimistic earnings outlook triggered a buying event, confirming support at a critical level. 
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Chewy (NYSE: CHWY) stock faces headwinds in 2026, as do many retailers. Still, Chewy’s digital-first, asset-light model is working: the company is gaining share and posting industry-leading growth. It consistently outgrows peers and the broader pet-care market, helped by rising digital penetration and greater emphasis on nutrition and pet healthcare. The takeaway for investors is that the stock rallied by double digits after an otherwise tepid release, signaling market support and potential for further gains this year.

Chewy Leads Market in Q4: Guides for Strength in 2026

Chewy delivered a solid quarter despite a tough year-ago comparison and elevated analyst expectations. The company reported $3.26 billion in net revenue — up 0.5% on an as-reported basis and 8.1% on an adjusted basis (the adjustment reflects an extra week in the fiscal period). Performance was driven by a 4% increase in active customers, a 2.2% rise in sales per active customer, and a 4.8% increase in autoship sales.

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Autoship is a critical part of Chewy’s engine: it represents recurring monthly revenue tied to food, medicine and healthcare products. Autoship accounted for roughly 84% of net sales, giving Chewy strong revenue visibility and a foundation to accelerate growth in 2026.

Margin news was mixed. Chewy improved margins across the board, producing a 30.4% increase in adjusted EBITDA, a 72% jump in net income and a 47% rise in free cash flow (FCF), but it still fell slightly short of some expectations.

Adjusted earnings per share fell by a penny year over year and missed consensus, yet the business generated cash, maintained a low-debt profile and continued buying back shares.

Chewy’s buybacks aren’t yet robust and did not materially reduce the share count in fiscal 2026; they largely offset share-based compensation and may increase over time. The company is forecasting margin improvement and an accelerated pace of earnings growth. MarketBeat’s long-term view is a high-teens to low-20% compound annual EPS growth rate, which implies the stock is trading at roughly 9x its 2031 EPS forecast. While valuation concerns exist today, that multiple implies meaningful upside potential over the next several years.

Guidance was the main catalyst for CHWY’s post-release price action. Revenue guidance was as expected, and the earnings outlook was constructive. Chewy forecasts FY2027 adjusted EPS of $13.68 — nearly a dime above MarketBeat’s consensus.

Analysts Put Bottom in Chewy Stock: Institutions Pose Risk

The analyst reaction was mixed: early commentary praised earnings strength and the 2026 outlook, while some firms trimmed price targets. As a result, Chewy’s Moderate Buy rating and its 80% Buy-side bias remain intact, but the consensus price target was pared back. That consensus still implies roughly 60% upside for the year, although post-release revisions have tended toward the lower end of the range.

Even so, many new targets imply 20%–50% upside, suggesting the stock could rebound and prompting the potential for further positive revisions later in the year if execution continues. In that scenario, Chewy would build on momentum and could outperform in coming quarters.

Institutional ownership is a risk factor. Institutions own more than 90% of Chewy’s shares and were net sellers in early Q1. If selling persists into Q2 2026, CHWY may struggle to clear key resistance levels. As March closes, an important resistance sits near $20.75 and could be tested before quarter-end. The upside opportunity is that institutions could resume accumulation, which would help solidify a market bottom and set the stage for a rebound.

Chewy’s key catalysts rest on executing its high-margin strategies, including Chewy Vet Care, private-label expansion, AI initiatives and its advertising business. Chewy enables manufacturers to advertise directly to consumers on a pay-per-click basis and applies AI to improve efficiency across its digital ecosystem. Private labels are also growing — they boost margins and help Chewy win share versus premium brands.

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