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Exclusive Article
Merck Just Made a Big Bet on a New Cancer Growth Engine
Submitted by Jessica Mitacek. Publication Date: 3/31/2026.
Key Points
- Merck is set to acquire Terns Pharmaceutical for $6.7 billion, adding its promising leukemia treatment to its growing hematology and cancer pipeline.
- This is Merck’s third multi-billion dollar deal in a year, a bolt-on strategy projected to drive a $70 billion commercial opportunity by the mid-2030s.
- With an average five-year gross margin of 73% and 14 consecutive years of dividend increases, Merck remains a top-tier performer with a Moderate Buy rating.
- Special Report: Elon Musk already made me a “wealthy man”
While the health care sector has struggled this year, that hasn’t been the case for all of Big Pharma.
Shares of New Jersey-based Merck & Co. (NYSE: MRK) have outperformed the sector and the broad market, gaining more than 12%.
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The drugmaker’s stock recently got a boost on news that it is acquiring Terns Pharmaceuticals—a move that bolsters its cancer treatment pipeline and reinforces Merck’s track record as a serial acquirer.
Mergers and acquisitions have been a major driver of the company’s steady growth and market-cap expansion. Merck’s market value is currently more than $296 billion, trailing only Eli Lilly (NYSE: LLY) and AbbVie (NYSE: ABBV), at roughly $830 billion and $370 billion, respectively.
Merck’s Terns Acquisition Is a Pivotal Oncology Play
On March 25, Merck announced it had reached terms to acquire Terns, a clinical-stage oncology company focused on therapies including TERN-701, an oral allosteric BCR–ABL1 inhibitor for chronic myeloid leukemia.
According to the press release, Merck will acquire Terns for $53 per share in cash, valuing the company at approximately $6.7 billion and further building its hematology pipeline with what Merck called a “potential best-in-class candidate” for certain CML patients.
The Terns deal is Merck’s third multi-billion-dollar acquisition in the past year. Although TERN-701 remains in clinical development, it has produced “encouraging rates of molecular response and deep molecular response,” including in patients with high disease burden who previously received multiple lines of therapy.
M&A Activity Has Helped Support Merck’s Earnings and Dividend Profile
Merck’s success in securing deals like Terns underscores its central role in the pharmaceutical industry and contributes to an impressive earnings track record. The company has missed analyst estimates just once in the past 19 quarters, dating back to Q2 2021.
When Merck reported Q4 2025 financials on Feb. 3, it posted earnings per share (EPS) of $2.04, beating expectations of $2.01, and revenue of $16.40 billion, topping estimates of $16.19 billion. With a forward price-to-earnings ratio around 16.45, Merck’s EPS is forecast to grow nearly 10% over the next year, from $9.01 to $9.90.
On the earnings call, CEO Rob Davis attributed the company’s steady growth to new product launches, progress in key clinical programs, and added scale in respiratory and infectious-disease businesses from the Verona Pharma and Cidara Therapeutics acquisitions.
“As a result of this progress, we now have line of sight to over $70 billion of potential commercial opportunity by the mid-2030s, $20 billion more than just a year ago and more than double consensus 2028 peak Keytruda revenue of $35 billion,” Davis said.
While those revenue projections are attractive to shareholders and prospective investors, the broader takeaway is how quickly Merck has scaled through its acquisition strategy.
That M&A activity—including the Verona Pharma and Cidara Therapeutics deals, valued at about $10 billion and $9.2 billion respectively—was followed by the Terns announcement, valued at roughly $6.7 billion.
Merck continues to focus on bolt-on acquisitions to diversify its oncology, immunology, and infectious-disease pipeline.
Integrating these biotech companies into its portfolio is accelerating growth and expanding Merck’s market share while smoothing entry into new markets.
As a result, the company has maintained a five-year average gross margin above 73%.
These high, expanding margins signal pricing power and operational efficiency, which help Merck sustain and grow its dividend, currently yielding 2.84% (about $3.40 per share annually).
Dividends are common among mature health care companies—especially large pharmaceutical and managed-care firms—but Merck stands out.
The company has increased its payout for 14 consecutive years and posts a five-year dividend growth rate of 5.75%.
How Wall Street Feels About Merck
Across 18 analysts covering the stock, Merck holds a consensus Moderate Buy rating; 11 analysts rate MRK a Buy. The average one-year price target of $127.13 implies upside of more than 7% from current levels.
Institutional ownership sits above 76%, with inflows of nearly $37 billion outpacing outflows of about $19 billion over the past 12 months. Current short interest is low—just 1.18% of the float, or roughly 29 million of 2.47 billion shares outstanding—suggesting limited bearish pressure.
Merck has been in the green zone on TradeSmith’s financial health indicator for more than six months and ranks higher than 93% of companies evaluated by MarketBeat, placing 39th out of 858 stocks in the medical sector.
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