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Additional Reading from MarketBeat Media

The Last Time Qualcomm’s RSI Did This, the Stock Rallied 70%

Submitted by Sam Quirke. Date Posted: 1/27/2026. 

Article Highlights

• Qualcomm has just exited extremely oversold territory, a technical setup that previously marked the start of a major recovery rally.
• The signal is appearing just ahead of earnings, when expectations are about as low as they can be.
• With much of the downside already priced in, the risk-reward balance is tilting toward the bulls.

Shares of tech giant Qualcomm Inc. (NASDAQ: QCOM) are trading around $155 after a rough fortnight. After a reasonably strong start to the year, the stock has dropped about 15% as relentless selling reflected fears Qualcomm may have missed the AI transformation, particularly in major enterprise use cases.

That pessimism shows up clearly in the stock’s chart. Last week Qualcomm’s relative strength index (RSI) dipped below 30 — the commonly accepted “extremely oversold” threshold — then quickly rebounded above that level. The speed of the recovery is notable: it suggests selling pressure may have peaked and buyers are returning, and it echoes a prior episode with an important outcome.

Why Qualcomm’s RSI Signal Matters Right Now

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RSI is a popular momentum indicator that provides a quick snapshot of recent price action and whether a stock is overbought or oversold. Equally important as the depth of a decline is the speed of any rebound, because that reveals how the market interprets the move.

The last time Qualcomm’s RSI fell below 30 was in April last year; within a week it had recovered above 30. That’s the same setup we’re seeing now, and investors should consider what that historical pattern could imply for the stock.

History Rhymes: Qualcomm’s RSI Bounce Previously Fueled a Rally

That quick April bounce preceded the start of a roughly 70% rally, marking an inflection where bearish momentum gave way to sustained buying. We could be seeing a similar turn now.

Once again, Qualcomm has been aggressively sold as sentiment turned negative, but the fact that RSI has already moved back above 30 suggests the market has absorbed much of the selling. This reversal is unfolding just days ahead of earnings, which makes the setup especially interesting if you believe the sell-off has been overdone.

Even After the Downgrade, Qualcomm Still Shows Upside to $175

Much of Qualcomm’s underperformance versus peers over the past year — and in recent weeks — stems from concerns it has been left behind in the AI arms race. While companies like NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ: NVDA) have captured much of the spotlight and market share, Qualcomm’s progress has been steadier and more fragmented.

That view may be too narrow. Qualcomm has been making steady advances in personal AI, particularly across IoT, edge computing, and robotics. Those markets are less flashy than large-scale cloud AI, but they are meaningful, scalable, and well aligned with Qualcomm’s core strengths. In that context, the current sell-off may be discounting those opportunities too heavily.

A recent Mizuho downgrade to Neutral didn’t help. Still, at roughly $155, Qualcomm’s refreshed price target of $175 implies meaningful upside.

Earnings Could Be the Catalyst That Turns Qualcomm Higher

Technically, Qualcomm is showing early signs of stabilization: the stock recently bounced off support near $154 — the area where selling paused in October — suggesting bears ran out of steam at that level.

Taken together, there’s a sense that the pieces are beginning to line up. Qualcomm heads into earnings with sentiment near rock bottom and a fresh technical signal that has historically preceded a significant recovery rally. History doesn’t always repeat, but it can often rhyme, and Qualcomm’s downside looks more limited now than it did two weeks ago.

If the company can reassure investors that its longer-term growth story remains intact next week, the post-earnings reaction could skew higher. After a punishing start to the year, this is the kind of setup where restoring confidence — rather than succumbing to panic — may prove the smarter play.

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