RJ Hamster
Washington Thinks They Own Your Bank Account
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Special Report
These 3 Defensive Stocks Could Help Portfolios Weather a 2026 Downturn
Reported by Chris Markoch. Originally Published: 1/12/2026.

Summary
- Recession risk is rising in 2026, making a defensive portfolio shift a smart way to manage downside without abandoning opportunity.
- Some growth businesses still offer protection by being deeply embedded in daily operations, creating durable demand even in slower economies.
- Essential consumer demand and life-event-driven revenue can provide stability, income, and resilience when economic conditions weaken.
Making economic forecasts is always difficult. Even with access to more data than ever, uncertainty feels high. For example, in December 2025 many leading financial firms had a positive outlook for the U.S. economy in 2026.
One notable exception was JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM). JPMorgan Global Research puts the probability of a U.S. and global recession in 2026 at roughly 35%, citing sticky inflation and a slowing labor market.
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Last week’s jobs report supported that view, and this week’s CPI and PPI readings are likely to reinforce concerns about persistent inflation. JPMorgan reports earnings on Jan. 13, when CEO Jamie Dimon will likely add further color to the firm’s outlook.
This isn’t the first time Dimon has warned about recession risks in recent years. That doesn’t mean his comments should be dismissed. The economy feels like a “mostly good” doctor’s checkup: superficially fine, but with warning signs that could become problems if left unattended.
To use another metaphor, Dimon is playing the role of the Ghost of Christmas Future — not predicting what will happen, but illustrating what could occur if the U.S. remains on its current course.
Depending on your perspective, that’s the downside. It may not be a time to abandon growth stocks — especially in the technology sector — but it could be wise to add some defensive positions as a hedge. Here are three stocks that fit that description.
Growth Meets Defense: A Tech Company Embedded in Enterprise
The first pick may not look defensive at first. Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ: MSFT) is a growth stock that also exhibits many defensive characteristics: its products and services function like an operating system for enterprise customers.
From cloud computing (Azure) and productivity software (Teams) to its generative and agentic AI tools like Copilot, Microsoft is deeply embedded with customers. That creates sticky revenue, growing earnings and high switching costs.
Investors can also buy MSFT at a modest discount: the stock is down about 6% since November 2025 amid concerns about the payoff from AI infrastructure spending. Goldman Sachs recently pushed back on those concerns, assigning a Buy rating and citing Microsoft’s potential to benefit from “compounding AI product cycles.”
MSFT has a consensus price target of $630.37 — roughly 31% above the current price — making it a compelling buy-the-dip candidate.
A Defensive Trade With Income and Innovation Potential
General Mills (NYSE: GIS) is a classic defensive stock: a consumer-staples giant with brands found in many households.
GIS is down more than 25% over the past 12 months, and its five-year total return stands at about -4.09%. The dividend yield has risen to roughly 5.6% as the share price has weakened.
The defensive trade fell out of favor as investors rotated from the meme-stock mania of 2020–21 into the AI-driven growth trade, leaving many consumer-staples names behind. General Mills projects a revenue and earnings slowdown in 2026 but is investing in innovation and marketing to help spur future growth.
Real Estate Resilience: Profiting From Life-Event Demand
Dividend-paying stocks often have defensive qualities, which can make real estate investment trusts (REITs) like Public Storage (NYSE: PSA) attractive. Public Storage focuses on self-storage units, demand for which is driven more by life events than the broad economy.
If the economy weakens, life events such as downsizing, job changes and relocations could accelerate, boosting demand for self-storage. Public Storage benefits from pricing power that helps protect margins, and it maintains one of the strongest balance sheets in the sector.
PSA is down about 3% over the past 12 months but has surged in the first two weeks of 2026. Analysts see roughly 13% upside, and the stock yields about 4.12%, with annual payouts near $12 per share.
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