RJ Hamster
Wall Street Shrugs Off Another Shutdown
Delivering World-Class Financial Research Since 1999
The U.S. government is closed once more… The stock market doesn’t care… Updates on gold, silver, oil, and gas… Meet the next Fed chair… Trump’s pick is in… Oracle needs more debt to fuel its AI growth…
The U.S. government is partially shut down again…
This shutdown began Saturday, when funding lapsed for the departments of Defense, Homeland Security, State, Treasury, and others.
But it’s not looking to break another record.
The Senate passed a funding bill late Friday for major departments. The House was negotiating some of its items today, like funding for immigration enforcement after federal agents fatally shot two U.S. citizens in Minnesota last month.
Already, the market faces a small but notable consequence: The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ jobs report scheduled for Friday – which would update the unemployment rate and cover the month of January – has already been postponed. No new release date is available.
I (Corey McLaughlin) expect Uncle Sam to agree to spend other people’s money once again, eventually. But the U.S. government has surely proved incapable of budgeting its operations in any calm, consistent, stable fashion… once again. This shouldn’t go overlooked.
Wall Street, meanwhile, keeps going about its business…
Stocks were again the place to be today. The major U.S. indexes were higher across the board, and the benchmark S&P 500 traded near an all-time high.
At the same time, natural gas and oil prices moved substantially lower – about 25% and 5%, respectively. Some analysts expect warmer weather in February, reducing energy demand. A lower temperature surrounding tensions between the U.S. and Iran likely also helped.
Meanwhile, gold and silver were down another 7% and 6%, respectively, following Friday’s crash in much of the precious metals sector. Silver prices plunged 28% on Friday in their worst day since 1980, and gold lost about 10% on Friday.
We’ve been writing the past few weeks about silver’s parabolic move this year, and it was up almost 140% in just the past three months before Friday’splunge. It was “due for a cooldown eventually,” we wrote last Monday. I’d say that arrived and then some.
Dan Ferris’ Thursday Digest quickly proved especially timely as well. He warned about the possibility of silver plummeting after its ballistic run. He wrote about why it’s so important to have a “plan to sell” and shared practical, actionable advice about how to do it.
The question now is what comes next in the precious metals market… We’ll explore that some more this week. For today, the heaviest selling in gold and silver slowed.
Moving on…
The next Federal Reserve chair will be…
Kevin Warsh.
That is, presuming he is confirmed by Congress.
On Friday morning, President Donald Trump announced that he is nominating Warsh, a former Fed governor, to replace Jerome Powell when his term ends in May.
Warsh had been considered one of the leading candidates for the job since shortly after Trump’s election to a second term. We’ve mentioned his name here since, including when we reported on what sounded like his job “interview” on CNBC back in our July 17 edition.
So, his selection isn’t a surprise, though we’ve seen and heard some market analysts act like it is.
The choice coincided with precious metals’ behavior on Friday. The mainstream headlines said it was because Warsh is more of an advocate for “Fed independence” than some of the other candidates for the job.
That might be true, especially when compared with White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett, another candidate for the position. But Warsh’s nomination shouldn’t have been reason enough to send precious metals crashing.
First off, as we wrote about last week, BlackRock executive Rick Rieder had emerged as a betting favorite to be Fed chair before odds turned toward Warsh on Thursday… And nobody thought of Rieder opposing Fed independence, either.
Plus, ‘independence’ is in the eye of the beholder…
As we wrote last summer, Warsh was criticizing the Fed for not lowering rates sooner. And he also said on CNBC he wanted a “new accord” that would put central bank and fiscal goals in alignment…
We need a new Treasury/Fed accord, like we did in 1951 after another period where we built up our nation’s debt and we were stuck with a central bank that was working at cross purposes with the Treasury. That’s the state of things now…
If we have a new accord, then the… Fed chair and the Treasury secretary can describe to markets plainly and with deliberation, “This is our objective for the size of the Fed’s balance sheet.”
Warsh’s ties to the Trump administration are pretty clear.
Warsh was in the running for the Treasury secretary job that went to Scott Bessent. An early plan in the Trump administration was to have Bessent become Fed chair after two years, with Warsh replacing him at the Treasury.
But Bessent decided he wants to remain as Treasury secretary. Now Warsh is set to replace Powell… and he knows the assignment: lower rates.
Trump is already ‘joking’ about what would happen if Warsh doesn’t cut interest rates…
A day after formally choosing him as the next Fed head, Trump was already laying groundwork for what he expects from Warsh in a few months. According to a story published by the Wall Street Journal over the weekend…
President Trump joked during a speech Saturday night that he would sue Kevin Warsh, his nominee to chair the Federal Reserve, if he didn’t lower interest rates.
Trump was the featured speaker at the Alfalfa Club’s annual black-tie dinner and presented a roast-style speech at the closed-door event. Trump told the group of business leaders and Washington elite that he picked Warsh because he seemed straight from central casting, according to people in the room.
Asked about those comments aboard Air Force One later Saturday evening, Trump said, “It’s a roast.” He said he didn’t extract any commitments from Warsh for the nomination. “I could have done that I guess if I wanted, but I didn’t,” he said.
In other words, lower rates are implied and expected already. That said, in the past Warsh hasn’t been a total “dove” on Fed policy, meaning someone who favors lower rates and other looser monetary policy. He has also been in favor of shrinking the Fed’s balance sheet.
I find it hard to make a good bet on what Warsh’s tenure will look like over a four-year term as Fed chair. For now, the market is expecting lower rates if he gets the job in May. But that’s nothing new. Futures traders continue to give 60% odds on cuts by June.
Until then, this outlook that we wrote way back in July again rings true today…
A “shadow” Fed chair – one who says they will lower rates when they’re in office starting in 2026 – would likely be the person the markets would listen to in Powell’s final months. The lame-duck chair might delay rate cuts, but it would only delay Trump’s inevitable wish.
Just last week, the Powell-led Fed paused its rate-cutting cycle, and I’d be surprised if it starts up again. The market will be looking to Warsh for Fed signals now.
An update on the ‘canary’ in the AI coal mine…
Last night, cloud computing giant Oracle (ORCL) announced plans to raise up to $50 billion in 2026 to build out cloud infrastructure for its big-name AI clients.
Up to half of that funding ($20 billion to $25 billion) will come from issuing new debt, with the rest coming from mandatory convertible preferred shares and common stock. In a Securities and Exchange Commission filing this morning, Oracle said up to $20 billion of that funding will come from issuing new shares.
The point: Oracle needs financing, now…
In the past two quarters, Oracle has accepted more than $400 billion in orders from companies like OpenAI, Nvidia (NVDA), and Meta Platforms (META). And in its statement announcing the funding plans, Oracle name-dropped chipmaker Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), social media platform TikTok, and Elon Musk’s xAI startup as customers.
But while business with those clients will show up on Oracle’s income statement in the next few years, Oracle needs to invest now to build out that capacity to support those companies.
For this reason, the company is a potential “canary in the AI coal mine” – a business that could signal what to expect or be cautious about moving ahead in the AI boom.
Oracle’s cash flows are still a concern…
So we know how Oracle is planning to fund its computing expansion to carve out a spot in the AI boom. But it’s keeping the company in a different spot than the other “hyperscalers”…
As we wrote in the December 11 Digest…
But companies like Microsoft (MSFT), Meta Platforms (META), and Alphabet (GOOGL) all produce loads of free cash flow (“FCF”) from their core businesses. That position of strength allows them to spend big when they see fit.
According to analysts polled by Bloomberg, Oracle isn’t expected to be FCF positive until 2030 – with its FCF deficits running about $20 billion in each of the next three years.
Our colleague and True Wealth editor Brett Eversole predicted this in his presentation at our annual conference in October, saying Oracle may need to “go cash-flow negative” and borrow around $100 billion over the next three to five years.
Cash-flow negative, check.
Oracle ran at a small deficit in 2025 and will likely do so for the next few years.
It has already borrowed $38 billion, and at least $20 billion more is on the way. So Brett’s prediction of $100 billion may end up being low, especially if Oracle sticks with its increased AI investment over the next few years.
The credit markets aren’t sold just yet. More from the December 11 Digest…
We’re already seeing warning signs pop up. A measure of Oracle’s credit risk just hit the highest intraday level since the financial crisis. That means folks are less confident in Oracle’s ability to manage its debt load.
That’s still true today – with the cost to insure against an Oracle default at a 17-year high.
Equity investors aren’t thrilled. The stock fell 3% today. But shares are still essentially flat versus this time last year.
Data-center construction is still on the ropes…
In the January 8 Digest, we noted that construction postponements and cancellations for data centers were a red flag. In December, 16 projects had been postponed or canceled.
That’s gotten even worse in January… In a post on X, Don Johnson, chief economist at the research firm MacroEdge, shared that cancellations and postponements more than doubled to 34 in January.
This is small two-month sample size, so it’s too early to call a trend. But if increases in data-center postponements or cancellations continue through February and the ensuing months, it’ll be a warning sign that companies are rethinking their AI plans… or need to.
And it could mean that Oracle’s spending – as well as the rest of Big Tech’s – may be mispriced in the market.
Today, though, it’s full steam ahead for the AI boom. We’ll get some more clues on progress or roadblocks later this week with more earnings from companies like AMD (tomorrow) and Alphabet (Wednesday).
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New 52-week highs (as of 1/30/26): Atmus Filtration Technologies (ATMU), Alpha Architect 1-3 Month Box Fund (BOXX), Brady (BRC), British American Tobacco (BTI), Chevron (CVX), GE Vernova (GEV), Gilead Sciences (GILD), Helmerich & Payne (HP), Kinder Morgan (KMI), Coca-Cola (KO), Lockheed Martin (LMT), New York Times (NYT), Invesco Oil & Gas Services Fund (PXJ), SandRidge Energy (SD), State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE), and ExxonMobil (XOM).
In today’s mailbag, thoughts on Dan’s Thursday Digest… Do you have a comment or question? As always, e-mail us at feedback@stansberryresearch.com.
“I would just like to thank Dan for his discussion about when to take profits and/or avoid losses. It is very timely as I invested in silver & gold for the first time in any serious manner. I just now find myself wondering if I should ‘let the winners run’ or ‘taking profits is never a bad thing’. I realize since we are all uniquely positioned, there is no clear-cut answer. But I am grateful that he provided his thoughts as I totally agree with his premise that it’s harder to figure when to sell than to buy a position that looks like a bargain! I think discussions about ‘when to sell’ are not often as exciting but certainly welcomed!” – Subscriber Mike D.
All the best,
Corey McLaughlin and Nick Koziol
Baltimore, Maryland
February 2, 2026
Stansberry Research Top 10 Open Recommendations
Top 10 highest-returning open stock positions across all Stansberry Research portfolios. Returns represent the total return from the initial recommendation.InvestmentBuy DateReturnPublicationMSFT
Microsoft11/11/101,401.5%Retirement MillionaireMSFT
Microsoft02/10/121,386.5%Stansberry’s Investment AdvisoryADP
Automatic Data Processing10/09/08927.8%Extreme ValueBRK.B
Berkshire Hathaway04/01/09772.5%Retirement MillionaireGOOGL
Alphabet12/15/16732.5%Retirement MillionaireWRB
W.R. Berkley03/15/12635.8%Stansberry’s Investment AdvisorySII
Sprott01/11/18562.7%Extreme ValueALS-T
Altius Minerals03/26/09553.3%Extreme ValueCIEN
Ciena10/20/22502.9%Stansberry Innovations ReportHSY
Hershey12/07/07501.7%Stansberry’s Investment Advisory
Please note: Securities appearing in the Top 10 are not necessarily recommended buys at current prices. The list reflects the best-performing positions currently in the model portfolio of any Stansberry Research publication. The buy date reflects when the editor recommended the investment in the listed publication, and the return shows its performance since that date. To learn if a security is still a recommended buy today, you must be a subscriber to that publication and refer to the most recent portfolio.
Top 10 Totals3Extreme ValueFerris3Retirement MillionaireDoc3Stansberry’s Investment AdvisoryPorter1Stansberry Innovations ReportEngel
Top 5 Crypto Capital Open Recommendations
Top 5 highest-returning open positions in the Crypto Capital model portfolioInvestmentBuy DateReturnPublicationBTC/USD
Bitcoin11/27/181,947.1%Crypto CapitalWSTETH/USD
Wrapped Staked Ethereum12/07/181,842.8%Crypto CapitalONE/USD
Harmony12/16/191,016.1%Crypto CapitalQRL/USD
Quantum Resistant Ledger01/19/21738.9%Crypto CapitalPOL/USD
Polygon02/26/21644.2%Crypto Capital
Please note: Securities appearing in the Top 5 are not necessarily recommended buys at current prices. The list reflects the best-performing positions currently in the Crypto Capital model portfolio. The buy date reflects when the recommendation was made, and the return shows its performance since that date. To learn if it’s still a recommended buy today, you must be a subscriber and refer to the most recent portfolio.
Stansberry Research Hall of Fame
Top 10 all-time, highest-returning closed positions across all Stansberry portfoliosInvestmentDurationGainPublicationNvidia (NVDA)^*5.96 years1,466%Venture Tech.Microsoft (MSFT)^12.74 years1,185%Retirement MillionaireInovio Pharma. (INO)^1.01 years1,139%Venture Tech.Rocket Lab (RKLB)^2.35 years1,034%Venture Tech.Seabridge Gold (SA)^4.20 years995%Sjug Conf.Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-B)^16.13 years800%Retirement MillionaireIntellia Therapeutics (NTLA)1.95 years775%Amer. MoonshotsRite Aid 8.5% bond4.97 years773%True IncomePNC Warrants (PNC-WS)6.16 years706%True Wealth SystemsMaxar Technologies (MAXR)^1.90 years691%Venture Tech.
^ These gains occurred with a partial position in the respective stocks.
* Editor Dave Lashmet closed the first leg of this Nvidia position in November 2016 for a gain of about 108%. Then, he closed the second leg in July 2020 for a 777% return. And finally, in May 2022, he booked a 1,466% return on the final leg. Subscribers who followed his advice on Nvidia could’ve recorded a total weighted average gain of more than 600%.
Stansberry Research Crypto Hall of Fame
Top 5 highest-returning closed positions in the Crypto Capital model portfolioInvestmentDurationGainAnalystBand Protocol (BAND)0.31 years1,169%Crypto CapitalTerra (LUNA)0.41 years1,166%Crypto CapitalPolymesh (POLYX)3.84 years1,157%Crypto CapitalFrontier (FRONT)0.09 years979%Crypto CapitalBinance Coin (BNB)1.78 years963%Crypto Capital
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