RJ Hamster
Wall Street Panics, and Main Street Books Their Cruise…
Wall Street Panics, and Main Street Books Their Cruise Anyway
BY ANDY SWAN, FOUNDER, LIKEFOLIO
Oil prices are spiking. War headlines are everywhere. Travel stocks are getting crushed.
That’s the word on Wall Street.
But Main Street consumers haven’t gotten the memo.
Here at TradeSmith, my brother Landon and I show everyday investors like you where real-world demand is moving before Wall Street catches wind.
By tracking online signals like searches, web visits, and social media chatter, we listen to what consumers are buying, the brands they’re loving, and the trends they’re following next.
Our Social Heat Score distills it all into a 0-100 score. And members of our MegaTrends stock trading advisory get to track those scores on more than 500 stocks inside TradeSmith Finance. The higher the score, the hotter the opportunity.
Right now, that demand data is flashing a surprising signal on a sector Wall Street is fleeing en masse.
I’ll show you that sector today – and the one stock lighting up our Social Heat Score.
But before we get to today’s signal, let me show you something important…
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We’ve Seen This Movie Before
The last time we saw a major geopolitical conflict break out, it was February 2022 – when Russia invaded Ukraine.
This happened while the world was still grappling with COVID-19… and slowly but surely reopening.
By June, U.S. inflation was hitting a multi-decade high.
But when we looked at the consumer data, one category stood out.
Consumers were pulling back hard on streaming, apparel, luxury, and appliances. Crypto and banking were the hardest hit, likely due to a worsening crypto bear market and growing mistrust in traditional financial institutions.
Consumers were retreating from nearly every category we track… except two: gambling and hotels.
When the world gets chaotic, people look for an escape… whether that’s by watching sports or just plain getting out of the house after two years of lockdown.
Sports betting had just gone mainstream. And this look at purchase intent showed five gambling stocks suddenly lighting up our Social Heat Score.
We tipped off our MegaTrends subscribers to the opportunity on June 15, 2022. They walked away with an average gain of +84%.
That’s the pattern. When fear spikes, investors rush for the exits. But consumer behavior doesn’t always align with Wall Street expectations.
Now the setup is back:
- Geopolitical conflict
- Spiking oil prices
- Markets gripped by fear
Travel was a big consumer theme in 2022. And it’s emerging once again, with our Social Heat Score lighting up in a specific corner of the sector…
The Escapist Consumer’s 2026 Travel Plan
Airlines and cruise companies live and die by fuel costs. So when the war in Iran sent those costs soaring, travel stocks got punished across the board.
But consumers aren’t blinking at Wall Street’s bearishness on the travel business.
They’re too busy booking their cruises with Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH).
Norwegian sits in a sweet spot. It’s not an ultra-luxury liner. But it’s not a budget free-for-all like Carnival (CCL), either.
Norwegian attracts the aspirational traveler. The retiree who saved for this trip, planned it for months, and isn’t letting a headline stop them from booking.
That consumer is resilient. They sit on the strong side of the economy, in the upper-middle-class cohort. When prices rise, they don’t cancel vacations. They just keep spending.
And right now, LikeFolio demand data says they’re spending with Norwegian.
The chart below tracks visits to Norwegian’s website – one of our best forward-looking signals for cruise demand.
Those visits are still up +5% year over year, even after the huge Wave Season surge:
If you’ve never heard of Wave Season, think of it like the cruise sector’s “Black Friday,” when prices are the lowest and consumers are most likely to hit that “book” button.
You can see on the chart above exactly where NCLH captured that primetime demand in January.
The key takeaway here: NCLH shares are down sharply in March. But consumer demand hasn’t cracked.
When Wall Street Gets It Wrong
One thing is driving the cruise stocks selloff: oil.
Higher fuel costs squeeze margins. That’s real. But the market is acting like demand is collapsing along with it. And our consumer data says the opposite.
NCLH’s Social Heat Score just jumped to 75.3 out of 100 – a clear bullish signal.
And when Wall Street panics while Main Street keeps spending… I trust Main Street.
Until next time,
Andy Swan
Founder, LikeFolio
P.S. The pattern I showed you today – fear spikes, Wall Street flees, Main Street keeps spending – is exactly what MegaTrends and our proprietary Social Heat Score was built to catch. Consumer data doesn’t lie. And right now, it’s flashing signals in sectors most investors won’t touch.
If you want to track Social Heat Scores on more than 500 stocks and get our next trade alert before Wall Street figures out what consumers already know, join MegaTrends today. The next setup like this won’t wait.
