Week Ending December 12th, 2025

Tuesday’s Market Moves

S&P 500 – 6,840.51 (-0.088%)

Dow Jones – 47,560.29 (-0.38%)

NASDAQ – 23,576.49 (+0.13%)

Weekly Recap

• U.S. stocks steady ahead of Fed meeting – U.S. equities hovered near unchanged as investors await today’s final FOMC decision. Last week’s ADP report showed labor market weakness, leading markets to price in nearly a 90% chance of a 25 bps rate cut, potentially lowering the fed funds range to 3.5%–3.75%.
• Trump announces $12B farm aid plan – The administration unveiled a $12 billion package to help U.S. farmers affected by trade tensions with China. The plan provides bridge payments through the USDA’s Farmer Bridge Assistance program and aims to stabilize the sector amid ongoing market shifts.
• Paramount launches $30/share hostile bid for Warner Bros. Discovery – Paramount Skydance submitted a direct offer to WBD shareholders, challenging Netflix’s $27.75-per-share deal for the company’s studio and streaming assets. The tender offer is backed by $41 billion in equity and $54 billion in debt financing.
• Trump approves Nvidia H200 China sales with 25% U.S. revenue cut – Nvidia will be allowed to sell H200 AI chips to approved Chinese buyers, with the U.S. government taking a 25% share of sales. AMD and Intel could see similar frameworks applied.
• Student loan borrowers could re-enter repayment – A proposed settlement between the U.S. Department of Education and Missouri would move millions of borrowers out of the SAVE plan early, requiring them to select new repayment options. Over 7.6 million borrowers were in SAVE as of July.
• Silver breaks $60 for the first time – Spot silver surged past $60 an ounce, marking the strongest 12-month performance since 1979. Rising industrial demand and expectations of a Fed rate cut are driving the rally, while gold remains steady near $4,200.
• Oil outlook soft for 2026 – Analysts and the U.S. Energy Information Administration forecast oversupply, with prices expected to fall below $60 per barrel next year.
• Bitcoin holds above $90,000 – Crypto-related equities traded broadly lower ahead of the open, while Bitcoin was little changed.
• Treasury yield spread hits widest since 2022 – The 10-year yield’s premium to the 3-month rate reached its widest level since September 2022, signaling optimism about the year-end economic outlook.
• December historically favors equities – The S&P 500 has averaged a 1.4% gain in December since 1950, compared with roughly 0.8% for all months.
• China’s trade surplus grows – Through November, the trade surplus reached $1.1 trillion. Analysts note little evidence that trade tensions have significantly impacted the economy.
• Home Depot (HD) dips ahead of investor day – Management reaffirmed guidance, expecting fiscal 2026 EPS to fall nearly 5% while revenue grows about 3%.
• Toll Brothers (TOL) slides – The homebuilder missed EPS expectations despite beating revenue forecasts, citing “soft demand across many markets.”
• CVS Health (CVS) rises – Shares gained after raising full-year 2025 guidance, citing “meaningful momentum” in business operations.
• AutoZone (AZO) falls – Quarterly earnings missed consensus, driving pre-market declines.
• Paramount Skydance (PSKY) counters Netflix – Paramount made a direct offer to WBD shareholders, while Netflix shares edged slightly higher.
• Alphabet (GOOGL) weakens – Shares fell after RSI signaled overbought conditions and Bloomberg reported an EU probe over potential AI-related competitive advantages.
• Ares Management (ARES) surges – Selected for inclusion in the S&P 500, the private credit firm saw strong early gains.
• Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH) slides – Goldman Sachs downgraded the stock to Neutral, citing exposure to Caribbean markets.
• CoreWeave (CRWV) drops – Plans to issue $2 billion in convertible debt raised concerns about potential dilution.
• Marvell Technology (MRVL) falls – Left out of the S&P 500 and downgraded by Benchmark, compounded by potential competition from Microsoft-Broadcom chip collaboration.
• Carvana (CVNA) climbs – S&P Dow Jones announced the company’s inclusion in the S&P 500.
• Confluent (CFLT) jumps – IBM revealed plans to acquire Confluent for $11 billion, describing it as a “smart data platform for enterprise IT, purpose-built for AI.”
• Salesforce (CRM) edges up – Shares rose following strong earnings and guidance, with pre-market showing slight pullback.
• Apple (AAPL) falls amid executive departures – Key AI, interface, and legal leaders left; Wedbush raised the price target to $350, noting 2026 as a potential breakout year for AI initiatives.
• Tesla (TSLA) slips – Morgan Stanley downgraded the stock to Equal Weight due to valuation concerns and a cautious EV market outlook, forecasting 2026 volumes 13% below consensus.

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“Holding onto anger is like drinking poison and expecting the other person to die.” – Buddha

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Notable Stocks

• Netflix (NFLX)
• Tesla (TSLA)
• Apple (AAPL)
• Nvidia (NVDA)
• Paramount Skydance (PSKY)

Weekly Notables

Paramount Launches Hostile Bid for Warner Bros. Discovery to Outmaneuver Netflix

Paramount Skydance on Monday unveiled a $30-per-share, all-cash tender offer for Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD), aiming to convince shareholders that it is a better buyer than Netflix. The bid is backed by $41 billion in equity financing, with additional funding from RedBird Capital and Jared Kushner’s Affinity Partners, along with $54 billion in debt commitments from Bank of America, Citi, and Apollo Global Management. The tender offer will remain open for 20 business days, during which WBD shareholders can sell their shares to Paramount. If Paramount acquires a majority stake, it would gain control of the company. Paramount CEO David Ellison indicated that $30 per share is not the company’s “best and final” offer, leaving room for a potential increase to persuade shareholders.

Trump Approves Nvidia H200 AI Chip Sales to China with 25% U.S. Revenue Cut, Xi Reacts Positively

President Donald Trump announced Monday that Nvidia will be allowed to sell its H200 artificial intelligence chips to “approved customers” in China and other markets, on the condition that the U.S. government receives a 25% share of the sales. In a Truth Social post, Trump said Chinese President Xi Jinping “responded positively” to the proposal. Trump emphasized that the move “will support American jobs, strengthen U.S. manufacturing, and benefit American taxpayers.” He added that the Commerce Department is finalizing the details and that a similar framework will apply to other U.S. chipmakers, including AMD and Intel.

Earnings Spotlight

Earnings Spotlight: Adobe (ADBE)

Adobe (NASDAQ: ADBE) will report fiscal fourth-quarter results after the market close on Wednesday, with analysts forecasting about 10% year-over-year growth in revenue and EPS. Consensus EPS stands at $5.40 with revenue near $6.11 billion. The company has moved to buy Semrush (NYSE: SEMR) in a $1.9 billion all-cash deal, broadening its marketing tools amid a tougher Creative Cloud market.

What’s Ahead

Monetary policy will dominate investor attention this week, as the final FOMC meeting of 2025 concludes today. Markets largely expect a 0.25% rate cut, while updated Fed economic projections and guidance for 2026 are likely to be the major focus.

Wednesday (Dec. 10): EIA Crude Oil Inventories, Employment Cost Index, FOMC Rate Decision, MBA Mortgage Applications Index, Treasury Budget, Wholesale Inventories. Earnings from Adobe Inc. (ADBE), Chewy Inc. (CHWY), Daktronics Inc. (DAKT), Hello Group Inc. (MOMO), Nordson Corp. (NDSN), Oracle Corp. (ORCL), Photronics Inc. (PLAB), Synopsis Inc. (SNPS), Uranium Energy Corp. (UEC), Vail Resorts (MTN).

Thursday (Dec/ 11): Continuing Claims, EIA Natural Gas Inventories, Initial Claims, Producer Price Index (PPI), Core PPI. Earnings from Broadcom Inc. (AVGO), Ciena Corp. (CIEN), Costco Wholesale Corp. (COST), Lovesac Co. (LOVE), Lululemon Athletica Inc. (LULU), Netskope Inc. (NTSK) RH Inc. (RH).

Friday (Dec. 12): Earnings from Johnson Outdoors Inc. (JOUT), Zedge Inc. (ZDGE).

 

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