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Moments like this don’t come often — and understanding what’s unfolding now could make all the difference in 2026.


Special Report
Microsoft Slumps Heading Into Earnings—Here’s What Matters Most
Author: Chris Markoch. Originally Published: 1/23/2026.

In Brief
- Microsoft stock remains under pressure as a bearish death cross pattern lingers ahead of the company’s Jan. 28 earnings report.
- Investors should focus on Azure growth, AI monetization, and capital spending to assess whether Microsoft’s heavy AI investments are paying off.
- MSFT valuation has become more attractive after the pullback, reinforcing the stock’s appeal as a long-term buy despite near-term technical weakness.
Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT) stock remains in a three-month slide that began after the company’s last earnings report.
With only a few days left before earnings, MSFT has yet to recover from the bearish death cross that formed in November 2025.
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It could be headed for a double dip — a decline following a brief bounce. What does that mean for investors as Microsoft prepares to report on Jan. 28?
A death cross occurs when a stock’s short-term simple moving average (typically the 50-day SMA) crosses below a longer-term SMA (typically the 200-day). It’s considered bearish because it signals weakening momentum in both the short and long term.
Like any technical signal, a death cross is not infallible. For long-term investors, the opposite — a golden cross — can present a buying opportunity in quality stocks. Earnings reports can also spark swift reversals, so technical patterns are one input among many.
Microsoft’s Next Earnings Report Hinges on Azure and AI
Investors will be watching for signs that AI investments and cloud expansion are producing tangible results. Key metrics include Azure growth and whether AI workloads are driving incremental revenue rather than just shifting existing demand. Early adoption and monetization of products like Copilot and other enterprise AI tools could indicate longer-term productivity gains.
Capital expenditures are another focus. Investors will want to know whether Microsoft plans to continue heavy AI-related spending on data centers or signal a slowdown. Margins will also be closely scrutinized to see whether growth initiatives are sustainable without eroding profitability.
Finally, the tone of management’s guidance matters. Any reassurance on steady revenue and AI adoption could stabilize the stock ahead of a potentially volatile quarter — even if Microsoft doesn’t materially beat expectations.
Valuation Looks More Reasonable After the Pullback
One silver lining from the recent slide is that MSFT now appears more reasonably valued. The trailing 12-month price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is roughly 31.5x, near the lower end of its five-year range and below many technology peers trading at 35x or higher. For long-term investors, the pullback may be an opportunity to add to a core holding at a more attractive entry point.
Microsoft’s business is diversified across productivity software, cloud computing, and emerging AI platforms. Even if some areas face short-term headwinds, the broad revenue mix and strong free cash flow help cushion the company from sharp declines.
In short, the market appears to be pricing in a moderation of growth rather than a permanent slowdown — which could interest disciplined investors focused beyond the next quarter.
Challenges to the Buy-and-Hold Thesis
A major risk to owning MSFT centers on worries about an AI bubble. Microsoft is spending tens of billions on data centers, yet even its leadership acknowledges there are challenges to work through.
The bearish case is that many companies may conclude AI does not deliver enough long-term value to justify building the applications that keep data-center demand strong. If that happens, even a cash-rich company like Microsoft could face earnings pressure.
How likely is that? It’s difficult to judge. Many critiques focus on generative AI, an area where Microsoft remains a leader. The next wave — agentic AI (autonomous agents) — is still in its infancy and could deliver the biggest productivity gains, but adoption may be less obvious and take longer to materialize.
Microsoft Is a Stock to Own for the Long Haul
MSFT can be considered a core holding for long-term portfolios. The stock has been under pressure for several months, but Microsoft is actively participating in every major technology trend in 2026, including many layers of the AI stack.
Pullbacks can be unsettling, but as the saying goes, “when in doubt, zoom out.” Here’s the one-year price chart for MSFT:
Now look at the five-year view:
Viewing performance over a longer timeframe helps put volatility in context. In MSFT’s case, previous pullbacks have eventually led to higher highs, making the recent decline potentially a buying opportunity for investors with a long horizon.
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