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Hedge Funds Flip on the Dollar—A Buy Signal for These 3 Stocks?

Written by Gabriel Osorio-Mazilli. Published 10/18/2025.

How does a move in the Dollar Index affect your portfolio?

This is a question many retail investors overlook, even though currency shifts ripple across every asset class. Whether you’re holding stocks, bonds, or commodities, the strength of the U.S. Dollar influences pricing, margins, and global capital flows.

In 2025, that question has become more urgent.

For much of the year, hedge funds were aggressively short the U.S. Dollar, betting that slowing growth and geopolitical risks would push it lower. Now they are unwinding those positions. Why?

A shift in global risk sentiment—fueled by rising tariffs, intensifying geopolitical uncertainty, and soaring gold prices—is prompting more international investors to treat the Dollar as a potential safe haven. Hedge funds reversing course have helped drive a roughly 3% rally in the Dollar Index this month alone.

That sharp move is creating opportunities in U.S. companies with substantial international exposure, including Airbnb Inc. (NASDAQ: ABNB), The Home Depot Inc. (NYSE: HD), and Dow Inc. (NYSE: DOW). They could see margin expansion, demand recovery, and faster free cash flow conversion as the dollar strengthens.

If hedge funds are any indication, the rotation has already begun.

Airbnb: Riding the Return of International Travel

Airbnb operates in more than 220 countries and regions, with a significant share of revenue coming from non-U.S. listings. According to some estimates, more than half of Airbnb’s revenue is generated outside the United States, giving the company meaningful exposure to cross-border travel dynamics and currency swings.

A stronger Dollar can fuel international travel in two ways: it encourages more Americans to travel abroad and makes services priced in other currencies more attractive to U.S. travelers. There are also indirect benefits, such as lower operational costs in international markets and foreign-exchange gains from cross-currency transactions.

Airlines are already seeing early signs of recovery. Delta Air Lines Inc. (NYSE: DAL)recently reported an increase in third-quarter transatlantic unit revenue, hinting at a broader rebound in discretionary spending.

Wall Street appears constructive: the analyst consensus price target for ABNB is $141.81, implying about 19.3% upside from current levels. Mizuho’s Lloyd Walmsley recently initiated coverage with an Outperform rating and a $151 price target, suggesting roughly 27% potential upside.

Institutional investors are positioning accordingly. Assenagon Asset Management increased its Airbnb holdings by 56.7% in October, bringing its total to $171.8 million. That move may reflect a broader hedge fund thesis centered on Dollar-driven travel demand.

Home Depot: Imports Just Got Cheaper

In a rising-Dollar environment, Home Depot could quietly become a margin-expansion story. As a major importer of goods and materials, Home Depot’s cost of goods sold tends to decline when the Dollar strengthens—and those savings can flow directly to the bottom line.

A stronger Dollar also boosts domestic consumers’ purchasing power and sentiment, which could help unfreeze do-it-yourself projects that rely on Home Depot’s products.

This combination—lower input costs and firmer consumer spending—sets up Home Depot for stronger gross margins and earnings per share in the coming quarters. Wall Street analysts maintain a consensus price target of $435.42, indicating roughly 14.8% upside.

That confidence has persisted despite a one-month decline of 10.4% in Home Depot’s stock price, which suggests the downside may be limited. Reflecting that view, Wolfe Research’s Spencer Hanus initiated coverage with an Outperform rating and a $497 price target, implying about 31% upside.

Dow: Free Cash Flow Is the Quiet Catalyst

Dow now trades roughly 40% below its 52-week high, creating a highly asymmetric risk-to-reward setup for buyers. But how does a stronger Dollar help a company like Dow?

The chemical giant is sensitive to commodity and logistics costs, and the key metric to watch is free cash flow conversion—how efficiently the company turns revenue into usable capital. As the Dollar strengthens, the cost of globally priced inputs and transportation can fall. If Dow reduces inventory and logistics spending, its cash-flow margins could improve materially even without a big revenue boost.

Wall Street appears to recognize this dynamic: analysts have maintained a consensus price target of $29.63 on Dow stock, implying about 36% upside, though that target remains well below the company’s 52-week high of $53.83.