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Sunday’s Featured News

Darden Restaurants, Inc.: This is What a Strong Signal Looks Like

Written by Thomas Hughes. First Published: 12/23/2025. 

Quick Look

• Darden Restaurants is testing long-term trend support after a steep pullback, creating a potential trend-following entry setup.
• Recent quarterly results showed solid sales and same-restaurant sales growth, alongside continued dividends and buybacks.
• Heavy institutional ownership and net inflows suggest support if the stock confirms a breakout back above key moving averages.

Darden Restaurants, Inc.’s (NYSE: DRI) stock is flashing a potential trend-following entry in late December after a sharp 2025 pullback.

The thesis is straightforward: the long-term uptrend remains intact, momentum indicators are turning, and fundamentals—paired with institutional positioning—create a credible path to market-beating total returns in 2026 if the stock clears nearby resistance.

Darden Restaurants Pulls Back to Trend-Following Entry Point in Q4

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Weekly price action for DRI has been in an uptrend since 2014, interrupted mainly by COVID-19 volatility.

More recently, a strong 2024 run broke the stock out of an Ascending Triangle pattern (where highs are flat but lows trend higher) and set a new all-time high. That move was driven by growth, margin strength, and capital returns.

The 2025 price action has been less obviously bullish: the stock fell about 25% from its peak to the November 2025 low. Still, the long-term uptrend remains unbroken.

While the drawdown was uncomfortable, it achieved two useful things for trend followers: it pulled price back toward long-term support and allowed momentum gauges to unwind from extended conditions.

That reset showed up in indicators such as the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) and stochastic, and it allowed a key exponential moving average (EMA) to catch up with price. On the weekly chart, the 150-week EMA has aligned with DRI’s uptrend line for years and now sits as advancing support. On the daily chart, shorter EMAs have begun to align with the rebound. The takeaway in late December is that support at these crucial EMA levels is holding, setting the stage for a rebound that has already begun.

The MACD and stochastic, which measure momentum and trend, point to a technical trend-following entry. The price rebound, combined with bullish crossovers in stochastic and MACD, constitutes a trend-following entry signal and suggests the market can retest its highs and potentially move higher in 2026. Investors should note, however, that late-December price action has encountered a ceiling that must be cleared for a sustained advance.

The Next Hurdle: Reclaiming the 150-Day EMA to Confirm Accumulation

Even with improving momentum, the chart still has a clear test ahead: reclaiming the 150-day EMA on the daily chart. Many investors treat that line as a proxy for intermediate-term accumulation. While weekly support (the 150-week EMA) remains intact, rallies below the 150-day can stall. A clean push above the 150-day EMA—followed by a successful retest—would give traders more confidence that dip buyers are back in control.

At the moment, the market appears to be digesting the rebound that followed the most recent earningscatalyst. A sustained move above the 150-day EMA would add confirmation beyond the initial bounce.

Earnings Catalyst: What Darden Just Reported and Why It Matters

The earnings results for fiscal Q2 (FQ2) showed year-over-year growth accelerating to over 7%, outperformance versus expectations, and substantial margin expansion driven by the core business and comp-store sales.

Cash flow and capital returns remain healthy, including the 3.1% yielding dividend and active share buybacks.

Buybacks reduced shares outstanding by about 1.2% in the first fiscal half and are expected to remain robust in the second half.

While restaurant results helped drive the move, analysts and institutions are steering the market. The FQ2 release prompted several price-target increases and upgrades, reinforcing the Moderate Buy rating and roughly 20% upside forecasts. Institutional investors are buying aggressively: they hold over 90% of the float, and their 2025 activity reflects roughly $2 in purchases for every $1 in sales. With that support, DRI’s downside appears limited while upside potential is meaningful.

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