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Hello Peter Anthony Hovis,

Trump Predicts Stocks to “Double” Soon

We’ve officially got another TACO trade.

The “Sell America” trade was in full swing on Tuesday that smelled of genuine panic. But by Wednesday afternoon, a familiar calm had returned to Wall Street, driven by a trading thesis that has quietly become the most reliable bet of the Trump 2.0 era: TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out).

Speculative spirits were emphatically restored today after President Donald Trump, fresh from a high-stakes meeting with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte at the World Economic Forum in Davos, claimed a vague “framework” for a deal on Greenland.

(Source: Truth Social)

The announcement effectively took the threat of immediate tariffs off the table.

The relief rally was instant and broad.

The S&P 500 added 1.2%, its biggest single-day advance since November, pushing the gauge back into the green for 2026. Energy shares led the charge to all-time highs, while small caps outperformed the benchmark for a remarkable 13th straight session.

Big Tech, recently battered by the geopolitical noise, joined the jump.

The reversal marks a stark pivot for a president who had spent the previous week attempting to coerce Europe into ceding the Arctic territory.

While the President did not detail what this new “framework” entails, the mere absence of escalation was enough for investors. Trump ruled out the use of military force earlier Wednesday, a move that Krishna Guha at Evercore dubbed the “Greenland ‘TACO’ reversal.”

• “Sharp turn Wednesday in favor of risk with Trump’s Greenland ‘TACO’ reversal and a Supreme Court hearing on the Trump/Cook case that seemed to go well for the Fed governor,” Guha said.
  
• “None of these issues go away, however, and all three will be with us for some time.”

(Photo: Sean Gallup/Getty Images)

Indeed, the market’s relief wasn’t just about the Arctic.

In Washington, U.S. Supreme Court justices appeared openly skeptical of President Trump’s unprecedented effort to fire Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook. The administration had alleged mortgage fraud regarding her primary residence disclosures, a charge Cook denies.

Investors viewed the court’s skepticism as a firewall protecting the Fed’s independence, further soothing frayed nerves.

The dual de-escalation of NATO and the Fed sparked the strongest pan-market rally since August across ETFs tracking U.S. stocks, Treasuries, and corporate bonds. The yield on 10-year Treasuries slid four basis points to 4.25%, and a $13 billion auction of 20-year bonds drew solid demand.

The volatility has served as a harsh reminder of the market’s headline sensitivity.

David Laut of Kerux Financial pointed out that while tariff threats cause short-term pain, they can “easily be unwound and reversed. Meaning? It could spark upside market volatility,” which exactly what traders witnessed yesterday. Laut sees this as a buying opportunity for value stocks in financials, materials, and energy.

For the optimists, the day confirmed that the structural bull market remains intact.

Kenny Polcari at SlateStone Wealth dismissed the geopolitical noise as short-term chaos that “tends to cool over time.” His advice? “Volatility is your friend, and weakness should be used to build positions in quality leaders that are getting unnecessarily whacked by the headlines.”

As the closing bell rang, the “Sell America” gloom had evaporated, replaced by a renewed appetite for risk.

Even President Trump chipped in his bullish view on the stock market during his address to the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. He predicted that the market would double in the coming year and dismissed Tuesday’s stock drop as “peanuts.”

• “Our stock market took the first dip yesterday because of Iceland,” Mr Trump said, apparently mixing up Iceland with Greenland.
  
• “So Iceland’s already cost us a lot of money. But that dip is peanuts compared to what it’s gone up. And we have an unbelievable future in that stock market. That stock market is going to be doubled. We’re going to hit 50,000 and that stock market’s going to double in a relatively short period of time.”

(Photo: Evan Vucci/AP)

A Call Option on the Global Economic Recovery

Today’s Stock Pick: Lightspeed Commerce Inc. (LSPD)

It is not easy to run a high-end bicycle shop.

The front of the store may look calm with sleek inventory, knowledgeable staff, and a seamless checkout experience.

But behind the curtain, the operation is a chaotic web of complexity.

The owner needs to track inventory across three different warehouses, manage repairs, order parts from fifty different global suppliers, and sync their online store with the physical floor.

For years, businesses like this struggled with fragmented tools. They had one system for the cash register, another for the website, and a spreadsheet for inventory that was always out of date.

(Source: Lightspeed)

This is where Lightspeed enters the narrative.

Lightspeed effectively acts as the central nervous system for complex SMBs, specifically targeting three distinct verticals: retail, hospitality, and golf.

Unlike simpler point-of-sale providers that might power a local coffee cart, Lightspeed builds software for the heavy lifters—the Michelin-starred restaurant that needs to manage table reservations and ingredient costs simultaneously, or the multi-course golf club that needs to handle tee times, the pro shop, and the clubhouse restaurant all on one tab.

(Source: Lightspeed)

For an investor, the plot thickens when you look at how Lightspeed makes money.

Historically, they were a software company selling subscriptions—a classic SaaS model where a merchant pays a monthly fee to use the platform. While this is still a core part of their revenue, the real growth engine has shifted.

Lightspeed has aggressively pivoted toward “Unified Commerce,” which means they don’t just record the transaction; they facilitate the payment itself.

By embedding their own payments infrastructure directly into the software, they capture a percentage of the Gross Transaction Volume (GTV) flowing through their system.

This transforms their relationship with the merchant.

They are no longer just a monthly expense; they are a partner in every sale. When their customers grow and sell more, Lightspeed earns more. This dual revenue stream—steady software subscriptions layered with high-upside transaction fees—creates a compelling financial profile that scales with the success of the underlying businesses.

For this reason alone, the current Lightspeed thesis is effectively a call option on the resilience of the global economy.

The last twelve months have been a brutal stress test for Main Street; in 2025 alone, total bankruptcy filings in the U.S. climbed 11%, and commercial filings ticked up by 5% as higher borrowing costs and inflation squeezed margins.

Small business confidence indices dropped sharply early in the year, with owners citing revenue as their single biggest anxiety. The “mom and pop” shops that lacked operational discipline didn’t just struggle; many of them disappeared.

But this harsh landscape highlights exactly why Lightspeed’s focus on “sophisticated” merchants matters.

When the economy eventually heats up and consumer wallets reopen, Lightspeed doesn’t need to sign a single new customer to see its revenue climb—it just needs its existing customers to sell more.

This is the power of the Gross Transaction Volume (GTV) model.

Every time a diner at a Lightspeed-powered bistro orders that extra bottle of wine, or a golfer upgrades to a premium driver in the pro shop, Lightspeed’s take-rate captures a slice of that optimism.

They have positioned themselves to ride the wave of recovery instantly, turning a rebound in consumer spending directly into bottom-line growth.

(Source: Lightspeed)

Its gross payment volume (GTV) grew 51% CAGR from fiscal 2023 to fiscal 2025. Not only that, total revenue as a percent of GTV climbed from 1.17% to 1.26% in just one year. So, the company is poised to benefit from an economic recovery.

Lastly, its free cash flow is projected to surge from negative $65 million to about $100 million in fiscal 2028. The company has repurchased more than $130 million in shares in fiscal 2025. Its market cap is $1.5 billion, so that’s about 10%.

It has about $300 million in remaining Board-authorized share repurchase program after April 2025.

(Source: Lightspeed)

Bottom line: Lightspeed offers a play on the economic recovery in the small- and medium-sized businesses, and its huge share repurchase program offers support to its stock price. 

 EARN WHILE YOU LEARN! JOIN OUR FREE LIVE TRADING SESSION!

 

 

© All Rights Reserved, Trade Alliance

Unsubscribe | Manage Preferences

EARN WHILE YOU LEARN! JOIN OUR FREE LIVE TRADING SESSION!

Hello Peter Anthony Hovis,

Trump Predicts Stocks to “Double” Soon

We’ve officially got another TACO trade.

The “Sell America” trade was in full swing on Tuesday that smelled of genuine panic. But by Wednesday afternoon, a familiar calm had returned to Wall Street, driven by a trading thesis that has quietly become the most reliable bet of the Trump 2.0 era: TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out).

Speculative spirits were emphatically restored today after President Donald Trump, fresh from a high-stakes meeting with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte at the World Economic Forum in Davos, claimed a vague “framework” for a deal on Greenland.

(Source: Truth Social)

The announcement effectively took the threat of immediate tariffs off the table.

The relief rally was instant and broad.

The S&P 500 added 1.2%, its biggest single-day advance since November, pushing the gauge back into the green for 2026. Energy shares led the charge to all-time highs, while small caps outperformed the benchmark for a remarkable 13th straight session.

Big Tech, recently battered by the geopolitical noise, joined the jump.

The reversal marks a stark pivot for a president who had spent the previous week attempting to coerce Europe into ceding the Arctic territory.

While the President did not detail what this new “framework” entails, the mere absence of escalation was enough for investors. Trump ruled out the use of military force earlier Wednesday, a move that Krishna Guha at Evercore dubbed the “Greenland ‘TACO’ reversal.”

• “Sharp turn Wednesday in favor of risk with Trump’s Greenland ‘TACO’ reversal and a Supreme Court hearing on the Trump/Cook case that seemed to go well for the Fed governor,” Guha said.
  
• “None of these issues go away, however, and all three will be with us for some time.”

(Photo: Sean Gallup/Getty Images)

Indeed, the market’s relief wasn’t just about the Arctic.

In Washington, U.S. Supreme Court justices appeared openly skeptical of President Trump’s unprecedented effort to fire Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook. The administration had alleged mortgage fraud regarding her primary residence disclosures, a charge Cook denies.

Investors viewed the court’s skepticism as a firewall protecting the Fed’s independence, further soothing frayed nerves.

The dual de-escalation of NATO and the Fed sparked the strongest pan-market rally since August across ETFs tracking U.S. stocks, Treasuries, and corporate bonds. The yield on 10-year Treasuries slid four basis points to 4.25%, and a $13 billion auction of 20-year bonds drew solid demand.

The volatility has served as a harsh reminder of the market’s headline sensitivity.

David Laut of Kerux Financial pointed out that while tariff threats cause short-term pain, they can “easily be unwound and reversed. Meaning? It could spark upside market volatility,” which exactly what traders witnessed yesterday. Laut sees this as a buying opportunity for value stocks in financials, materials, and energy.

For the optimists, the day confirmed that the structural bull market remains intact.

Kenny Polcari at SlateStone Wealth dismissed the geopolitical noise as short-term chaos that “tends to cool over time.” His advice? “Volatility is your friend, and weakness should be used to build positions in quality leaders that are getting unnecessarily whacked by the headlines.”

As the closing bell rang, the “Sell America” gloom had evaporated, replaced by a renewed appetite for risk.

Even President Trump chipped in his bullish view on the stock market during his address to the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. He predicted that the market would double in the coming year and dismissed Tuesday’s stock drop as “peanuts.”

• “Our stock market took the first dip yesterday because of Iceland,” Mr Trump said, apparently mixing up Iceland with Greenland.
  
• “So Iceland’s already cost us a lot of money. But that dip is peanuts compared to what it’s gone up. And we have an unbelievable future in that stock market. That stock market is going to be doubled. We’re going to hit 50,000 and that stock market’s going to double in a relatively short period of time.”

(Photo: Evan Vucci/AP)

A Call Option on the Global Economic Recovery

Today’s Stock Pick: Lightspeed Commerce Inc. (LSPD)

It is not easy to run a high-end bicycle shop.

The front of the store may look calm with sleek inventory, knowledgeable staff, and a seamless checkout experience.

But behind the curtain, the operation is a chaotic web of complexity.

The owner needs to track inventory across three different warehouses, manage repairs, order parts from fifty different global suppliers, and sync their online store with the physical floor.

For years, businesses like this struggled with fragmented tools. They had one system for the cash register, another for the website, and a spreadsheet for inventory that was always out of date.

(Source: Lightspeed)

This is where Lightspeed enters the narrative.

Lightspeed effectively acts as the central nervous system for complex SMBs, specifically targeting three distinct verticals: retail, hospitality, and golf.

Unlike simpler point-of-sale providers that might power a local coffee cart, Lightspeed builds software for the heavy lifters—the Michelin-starred restaurant that needs to manage table reservations and ingredient costs simultaneously, or the multi-course golf club that needs to handle tee times, the pro shop, and the clubhouse restaurant all on one tab.

(Source: Lightspeed)

For an investor, the plot thickens when you look at how Lightspeed makes money.

Historically, they were a software company selling subscriptions—a classic SaaS model where a merchant pays a monthly fee to use the platform. While this is still a core part of their revenue, the real growth engine has shifted.

Lightspeed has aggressively pivoted toward “Unified Commerce,” which means they don’t just record the transaction; they facilitate the payment itself.

By embedding their own payments infrastructure directly into the software, they capture a percentage of the Gross Transaction Volume (GTV) flowing through their system.

This transforms their relationship with the merchant.

They are no longer just a monthly expense; they are a partner in every sale. When their customers grow and sell more, Lightspeed earns more. This dual revenue stream—steady software subscriptions layered with high-upside transaction fees—creates a compelling financial profile that scales with the success of the underlying businesses.

For this reason alone, the current Lightspeed thesis is effectively a call option on the resilience of the global economy.

The last twelve months have been a brutal stress test for Main Street; in 2025 alone, total bankruptcy filings in the U.S. climbed 11%, and commercial filings ticked up by 5% as higher borrowing costs and inflation squeezed margins.

Small business confidence indices dropped sharply early in the year, with owners citing revenue as their single biggest anxiety. The “mom and pop” shops that lacked operational discipline didn’t just struggle; many of them disappeared.

But this harsh landscape highlights exactly why Lightspeed’s focus on “sophisticated” merchants matters.

When the economy eventually heats up and consumer wallets reopen, Lightspeed doesn’t need to sign a single new customer to see its revenue climb—it just needs its existing customers to sell more.

This is the power of the Gross Transaction Volume (GTV) model.

Every time a diner at a Lightspeed-powered bistro orders that extra bottle of wine, or a golfer upgrades to a premium driver in the pro shop, Lightspeed’s take-rate captures a slice of that optimism.

They have positioned themselves to ride the wave of recovery instantly, turning a rebound in consumer spending directly into bottom-line growth.

(Source: Lightspeed)

Its gross payment volume (GTV) grew 51% CAGR from fiscal 2023 to fiscal 2025. Not only that, total revenue as a percent of GTV climbed from 1.17% to 1.26% in just one year. So, the company is poised to benefit from an economic recovery.

Lastly, its free cash flow is projected to surge from negative $65 million to about $100 million in fiscal 2028. The company has repurchased more than $130 million in shares in fiscal 2025. Its market cap is $1.5 billion, so that’s about 10%.

It has about $300 million in remaining Board-authorized share repurchase program after April 2025.

(Source: Lightspeed)

Bottom line: Lightspeed offers a play on the economic recovery in the small- and medium-sized businesses, and its huge share repurchase program offers support to its stock price. 

 EARN WHILE YOU LEARN! JOIN OUR FREE LIVE TRADING SESSION!

 

 

© All Rights Reserved, Trade Alliance

Unsubscribe | Manage Preferences