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Exclusive Story

Costco Finally Breaks Out: Is There Still Time to Buy?

Reported by Dan Schmidt. Date Posted: 1/14/2026. 

What You Need to Know

• COST shares struggled in the second half of 2025, dipping nearly 20% in the last six months.
• Despite the sluggish stock, Costco’s sales remained strong and the company is set up for more growth in 2026.
• Investors are starting to take notice as the stock is up 10% in the last two weeks, but there’s still time to buy back into this retail giant.

A sleeping giant may finally be stirring after nearly a year of underperformance. Shares of Costco Wholesale Corp. (NASDAQ: COST) kicked off 2026 with a swift 10% gain following strong December sales and technical signals pointing to a bullish breakout. Is there still time to buy this retail favorite? If recent developments are any guide, COST investors could be in for an eventful year.

Impressive Sales Growth Getting Harder to Ignore

After much of 2025 in a frustrating holding pattern, the market is beginning to reward Costco’s solid sales performance. The company published its December sales figures last week, and the stock jumped 3% on the news.

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For the five weeks ending Jan. 4, Costco reported $29.86 billion in sales, up 8.5% year-over-year. Comparable sales rose 6% in the U.S., 8.4% in Canada and 10.6% internationally.

One especially encouraging data point was digital-enabled sales, which surged nearly 19% year-over-year and may finally counter the narrative that Costco is lagging the broader retail sector in e-commerce. This 19% increase follows November’s 16% digital expansion and is showing up as larger average tickets (up 4.2% in December) and more frequent visits.

Not only are digital initiatives driving customers to come more often, but members are also spending more when they shop.

Fundamental and Technical Tailwinds Taking Shape

Strong earnings have long been Costco’s backbone, and revenue growth plus high membership retention help justify the premium investors accept for this big-box retailer. Costco’s fiscal 2025, which ended in August, showed management’s initiatives that helped set the stage for the current breakout.

Total sales for fiscal 2025 were roughly $269 billion, up more than 8% from 2024. Net income exceeded $8 billion, and membership retention in the U.S. and Canada again topped 90%, though some modest slippage is appearing in that metric.

The company started fiscal 2026 strongly, reporting over $66 billion in sales during its Q1 2026 conference call on Dec. 11.

Management is also pursuing an ambitious expansion plan, targeting roughly 30 new warehouses annually over the next few years to widen its international footprint.

Technically, patterns are aligning after months in the doldrums. COST began 2025 on a strong note, building on a roughly 40% gain in 2024.

The stock hit an all-time high near $1,076 in February, then dropped in April amid renewed trade tensions. Unlike the broader market, COST didn’t fully recover when tariffs were later rescinded, losing nearly 20% in the back half of the year and dipping to a multi-year low around $850 on Dec. 22. That downtrend was finally broken in the last two weeks, and the stock now appears positioned for further gains.

In August 2025 the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) crossed below the 200-day SMA, forming a Death Cross that turned the 50-day into a stiff resistance zone. Multiple attempts to reclaim it were met with bearish momentum, but buyers have reasserted control and the share price has now pushed through the 50-day SMA decisively. A bullish MACD crossover confirms the breakout and brings the 200-day SMA into focus as the next key level. If COST can reclaim the 200-day SMA with similar conviction, the rally could gain serious momentum.

Valuation Concerns Remain Despite Rangebound Trading 

Investor sentiment has improved, supported by a promising fundamental picture and increasingly optimistic technical setups. Still, valuation is a central concern for new shareholders.

Although COST spent much of 2025 trading in a volatile downrange, the slide did little to address the stock’s rich valuation relative to retail peers.

Costco still trades at about 50 times earnings and 14 times book value, while the average retail stock trades near 24 times earnings. Investors typically accept a premium for Costco’s membership model, but a 50 P/E is more than 30% above the company’s 10-year average. As long as consumers remain resilient, Costco’s rebound should have legs. If the economy weakens and sales falter, however, the lofty valuation could trigger another rapid selloff.

For potential buyers, the technical breakout and improving sales trends argue in favor of exposure, but managing risk around the 200-day SMA and being mindful of the premium valuation are important. In short, there may still be time to buy, but investors should balance optimism with caution.

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