Friday, March 13, 2026

Click Here to access TheoTRADE’s Volatility Super Bundle

Don here…

The S&P 500 is down 5% from its highs. That sounds dramatic until you realize we haven’t seen a single day of real panic selling.

Friday’s advance decline line came in at fifty-fifty. You don’t capitulate until you correlate, and we are nowhere close.

Oil just closed at its highs, reaching for $100 a barrel. The dollar is breaking out above 100 for the first time in three years. Bonds are getting clobbered, which means rates are climbing.

Rising oil, a surging dollar, and higher interest rates create a toxic combination for the economy. The 25% recession probability the street is pricing in looks way too low.

Meanwhile, the financials are absorbing real damage. The XLF is down 11%. Deutsche Bank has dropped 26% on private credit exposure.

Private credit is the piece most people are ignoring. Firms like Blackstone and Blue Owl are cutting off or limiting redemptions on funds holding illiquid debt instruments. Investors who need cash and can’t get it from those funds will sell whatever they can, whether that’s stocks or Bitcoin. The domino effect is already starting.

The mega caps have barely flinched. Nvidia is trading in the same range it held back in July. Broadcom and Google are essentially untouched.

That is exactly the problem. If this sell-off deepens, the big market caps are where the next wave of selling will come from.

Volatility futures are inverted by 70 cents between the front month and May. The market is pricing extreme near-term risk with an assumption that things calm down later.

In tonight’s video, I break down the exact levels and setups heading into what could be a massive week:

• The SPX expected move this week was $224. Actual move was just $110. The market didn’t even get close to either edge.
• Next week brings a Fed announcement and triple witching with a $210 expected move baked in.
• Oil is closing at its highs and threatening $100 a barrel heading into a weekend loaded with geopolitical risk.
• I detail the specific spread trades that produced winners this week, including a 100% gain on Toll Brothers and profitable positions in IBIT and Microsoft.
• I explain why names like Nvidia, Broadcom, and Google sitting at these levels represent the next leg of opportunity.

Nobody wanted to go home long on a Friday afternoon with this much risk on the table. Next week, with triple witching and the Fed converging, the real fireworks could finally arrive.

Click here to watch me break down next week’s setup and the trades I’m positioning around

To your success,

Don Kaufman
Chief Market Strategist, TheoTRADE

The Market’s No. 1 Trading Guide, Free

This is the perfect time to make sure you’re up to speed on your trading know-how. So I want to ensure you’ve read our free Rebel’s Guide to Trading Options – it covers all the basics of trading options. Like everything we do, the course is in plain  English. It’s specially geared toward beginners but all traders will get something out of it. Yours absolutely free, of course – right here…

Recent Media Appearances by TheoTrade

Jeff Bierman talks A.I. with YahooFinance LIVE

Click here to watch and read the interview >>>

Follow Us on Twitter for Free Market Updates Throughout the Day: https://twitter.com/TheoTrade

NEW MEDIA CHANNEL – JOIN TheoTRADE on RUMBLE

TheoTrade Rumble Channel

NEED HELP? LOOKING FOR MORE ADVANCED TRAINING? CALL OUR VIP CONCIERGE SUPPORT TEAM: (623) 244-5657

For live updates throughout the week join the TotalTheo® Unlimited Monthly Streaming: https://theotrade.com/all/

Get 6 Months Membership Access for FREE

Click Here to Open and Fund a NEW tastytrade Account

Follow these step by step directions:

1.  To open an account with tastytrade and enjoy an additional 6 months of TheoTRADE membership, start by clicking the button below..

2. Follow the directions on that page to open a new account.

3. Fund the account with a minimum of $2,000 in the next 30 days and keep open for at least 6 months.

4.  IMPORTANT: After the new account is open AND funded email support@theotrade.com so we can verify your new account.  Please note it may take us up to one week to verify your account from the time you email us.

5.  TheoTrade will then provide you membership access for 6 months!

Click here to get started now…

NEED HELP? LOOKING FOR MORE ADVANCED TRAINING? CALL OUR VIP CONCIERGE TEAM: (623) 244-5657

Warm regards,

Don Kaufman

Disclaimer: Neither TheoTrade or any of its officers, directors, employees, other personnel, representatives, agents or independent contractors is, in such capacities, a licensed financial adviser, registered investment adviser, registered broker-dealer or FINRA|SIPC|NFA-member firm. TheoTrade does not provide investment or financial advice or make investment recommendations. TheoTrade is not in the business of transacting trades, nor does TheoTrade agree to direct your brokerage accounts or give trading advice tailored to your particular situation. Nothing contained in our content constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, promotion, or endorsement of any particular security, other investment product, transaction or investment. Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. Past Performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

WARNING: If you UNSUBSCRIBE, you will be removed from ALL email lists, including any paid subscription emails. To opt out of this list only and keep other access, forward this email to support@theotrade.com and say “remove me from this particular email list.” Unsubscribe

TheoTrade
16427 N Scottsdale Rd
Suite # 410
Scottsdale, Arizona 85254
United States
1 (800) 256-8876