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Thursday’s Exclusive Content

D.R. Horton Stock Tests Support Following Earnings Report

Reported by Chris Markoch. First Published: 1/21/2026. 

Summary

• D.R. Horton reported better-than-expected earnings and revenue but showed year-over-year declines in profitability.
• Elevated mortgage rates continue to pressure affordability despite a structurally tight housing supply.
• Technical indicators suggest the stock may be forming a higher base near key support levels.

Shares of homebuilder D.R. Horton Inc. (NYSE: DHI) are down about 1% in mid-day trading after the company reported first-quarter fiscal 2026 results. On the surface the numbers looked solid: earnings per share (EPS) of $2.03 on revenue of $6.89 billion topped expectations for EPS of $1.98 on revenue of $6.66 billion.

Still, the sell-off had some grounding. On a year-over-year (YOY) basis, revenue fell 9% and EPS declined 22%, and YOY net income was down 30%. That was enough to prompt selling on a day when the broader market was already retreating sharply.

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D.R. Horton maintained its full-year guidance. While that may read as neutral, the company expects revenue and earnings to expand solidly YOY in the back half of the fiscal year.

Short term, management said a 3% rise in net orders was driven by sales incentives.

With DHI up roughly 8% for 2026 after a sharp December pullback, some investors likely expected more. Even so, a firmer floor in the stock could create a buying opportunity for those focused on the back half of the year.

Will the Earnings Report Clarify Analyst Sentiment

Analysts headed into the report with mixed views.

There were bullish calls, such as from Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS), which reiterated its Buy rating and $195 price target.

Some cautious notes contributed to the mixed sentiment: UBS Group (NYSE: UBS) trimmed its target slightly to $191 from $195, and Citigroup Inc. (NYSE: C) cut its target to $154 from $163.

There were also neutral takes. For example, Wells Fargo & Co. (NYSE: WFC) reiterated an Equal Weight rating and reduced its target to $155 from $180.

Nothing in the report suggests analysts will materially change their outlooks on D.R. Horton or the sector in the near term, given the continued pressure on the housing market.

The Relativity of Interest Rates

The Federal Reserve began cutting interest rates in late 2025, with the most recent cut in December 2025. Many investors now expect the Fed to pause further cuts for several months, which keeps financial conditions tighter than equity markets had hoped.

Lower rates generally help stocks because borrowing costs fall, which is especially important for small-cap companies that depend on debt to fund growth and are more sensitive to changes in the discount rate.

For homebuilders such as D.R. Horton, the dynamics differ. Prospective buyers remain payment‑sensitive at current mortgage rates, and the company has said elevated incentives and rate buydowns are still required to sustain sales volumes even as orders and revenues hold up.

That may seem at odds with the “tight supply” narrative, but it reflects an affordability gap: supply is constrained, yet demand is highly sensitive to monthly payments. Incentives are being used to bridge that gap rather than to clear unwanted inventory.

Mortgage rates are more closely tied to the 10‑year Treasury yield than to the Fed funds rate; fixed mortgage rates typically trade several percentage points above long-term Treasuries rather than at a fixed spread to policy rates.

Although current rates are not extreme by long-term historical standards, they are a shock to this generation of first-time buyers who grew up in an era of ultra-low 30‑year mortgage rates. That amplifies the need for buydowns, discounts, and other concessions to keep monthly payments manageable.

Analysts note the housing challenge is both a supply and demand issue. Structurally tight inventory supports pricing power for large builders like D.R. Horton, but stretched affordability means demand must be cultivated with incentives and the right product mix rather than assumed.

How to Approach DHI Stock After Earnings

Even after the January rally, DHI remains about 15% below its highs following a strong summer run. The stock is hovering near the 50‑day simple moving average (SMA), and a pattern of higher lows through late 2025 into early 2026 suggests it may be carving out a higher bottom.

That positive case depends on the 50‑day SMA holding as support. Momentum, measured by the MACD, has stabilized after a bearish crossover, hinting at a potential shift back toward neutral or bullish if the signal line turns upward. The recent dip in volume looks more like part of a rotation trade than a capitulation by investors.

For a post‑earnings trade, the key is whether the price can hold around the 50‑day and reclaim recent swing highs from late 2025. Aggressive traders might enter near the moving average with a tight stop just below the most recent higher low. More conservative investors could wait for a decisive close above the consolidation range to confirm renewed upside momentum.

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